AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 96% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 50.6 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 174 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 153. Fremantle led 28–54 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
4%
Fremantle
96%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 96%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Fremantle carry a 59-point ELO rating advantage (1541 vs 1482). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 50.6 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +25.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.6%
Total Points
Under 169.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWWL | 74.3 |
Fremantle | WWLLL | 89.4 |
Avg Conceded
94.4
West Coast Eagles
89.2
Fremantle
Avg Margin
11.5
West Coast Eagles
13.2
Fremantle
Disposals
332.9
West Coast Eagles
358.6
Fremantle
Inside 50s
57.0
West Coast Eagles
50.8
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
96%
Fremantle predicted to win by 51 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: -50.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.31
Team Effectiveness
-0.22
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.