# West Coast Eagles v Fremantle — AFL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 68 – 106 Fremantle

_Fremantle see off West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 28 – 54 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 4% / Fremantle 96% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 30 Mar, 06:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Tyler Brockman (5' 1st), Matthew Owies (11' Tipped ⚡), Liam Ryan (14'), Jamie Cripps (46' ×2), Harley Reid (83'), Archer Reid (87' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jayden Hunt (73') · Fremantle: Matthew Johnson (12'), Isaiah Dudley (22' ×2), Jye Amiss (32' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (41' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (69'), Jordan Clark (76'), Michael Frederick (85' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (91' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 96% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 50.6 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 68–106 Fremantle in AFL Round 3 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle had it in hand from the first break and never let go. Up 34-19 at quarter time, 54-28 at the half, 83-47 by the last change, the margin only ever grew, until it closed out 106-68. Not really a contest so much as a slow, steady squeeze.

That pattern, gap widening every single quarter, tells you West Coast never found an answer. The ladder went from 15 points behind, to 26, to 36, to a final 38. No twist, no counter-punch, just Fremantle putting a bit more distance between the two sides every twenty-five minutes.

The clearance count explains why West Coast could never wrestle it back. Fremantle won that battle 40 to 25, and with the ratings pegging Fremantle's midfield at 1057 against West Coast's 940 coming in, that was always the likely shape of things. Winning the ball at the source let Fremantle dictate everything downstream.

And downstream is where it really hurt. Fremantle finished with 344 disposals to 291, moved it at 78.7% efficiency against West Coast's 68.3%, and turned that clean use into 65 inside 50s compared to West Coast's 37. Marks inside 50 told the same story doubled over, 21 to 10. West Coast's forwards, rated 1005 to Fremantle's 1069 pre-match, simply didn't get enough service to matter.

West Coast's one area of resistance was the tackle count, 46 to Fremantle's 39, suggesting they were at least working hard without the footy. Problem is, effort in defence only goes so far when you're conceding that much territory. Intercepts were close, 65 to 64, so West Coast weren't being carved apart through turnovers. They just couldn't win enough ball to use those intercepts for anything.

Form lines had this coming. Fremantle arrived averaging 89.4 points a game off their last five to West Coast's 74.3, and West Coast had been leaking 94.4 a game in that stretch. Add a ruck edge, 1000 to 961, and hit-outs on the day went 38 to 29 in Fremantle's favour too. Every pre-match marker pointed the same direction, and the scoreboard just followed the script.

Alphr's model called Fremantle at 96% to win, which is about as close to a certainty as this game gets. The margin was where it slipped, tipping Fremantle by 50.6 on a combined total of 153. The real total landed at 174, and the actual margin was 38, comfortably inside that predicted number but well shy of it. Two out of three isn't a bad night's work, wrong on the size of it, right on everything that mattered.

Fremantle get the diagonal to their name, a big road win built on control of the ball, control of the clearances, and a scoreboard that never so much as flickered West Coast's way after quarter time.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 19 | 9 | 19 | 21 | 68 |
| Fremantle | 34 | 20 | 29 | 23 | 106 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 291 | Disposals | **344** |
| 108 | Contested poss. | **122** |
| 25 | Clearances | **40** |
| 37 | Inside 50s | **65** |
| 79 | Marks | **89** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **21** |
| **46** | Tackles | 39 |
| 29 | Hit-outs | **38** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 68.3% | Disposal eff. | **78.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 96% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 50.6 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 174 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 153. Fremantle led 28–54 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. Fremantle covered the 25.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.24 (edge +15.6%) — model probability 96.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 51 · Predicted total: 153

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 3 in 1g | 9/10g (0·0·1·2·0·2·1·0·0·3) | 10/9g | 66/56g | 62% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 3 in 2g | 21/10g (4·3·2·1·2·5·0·1·2·1) | 6/8g | 74/50g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/4g | 2/8g | 38% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 2 in 2g | 7/9g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/2g | 7/12g | 28% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·1·3·1·2·0·1) | 20/21g | 88/74g | 72% | — | 🏉 46' 83' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 1 in 2g | 13/10g (0·2·3·1·1·1·3·1·1·0) | 5/4g | 7/4g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.20 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' 87' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/35g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/7g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | no games | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 11/14g | 59% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/26g | 12% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Jeremy McGovern | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 5/63g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/10g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 4/71g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/15g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/15g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 19/51g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/57g | 2% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 5 in 2g | 26/10g (2·2·2·5·1·3·3·3·1·4) | 6/4g | 41/30g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.88 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' 54' 61' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 4 in 2g | 4/2g (4·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/8g | 27/51g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 2 in 2g | 13/10g (2·0·0·3·1·1·3·1·2·0) | 12/7g | 49/44g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 28/76g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 21/55g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·0·3·2·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 20/54g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 1 in 2g | 15/10g (1·1·4·1·4·1·1·1·0·1) | 7/4g | 41/26g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 70' 75' 89' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 23/30g | 58% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 1 in 1g | 8/8g (1·0·1·1·0·2·2·1) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/55g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/25g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 22' 25' |
| – | James Aish | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 6/53g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 5/14g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/40g | 10% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/77g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 3/21g | 14% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/13g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/14g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 0 in 1g | 14/10g (0·4·2·1·0·1·2·3·1·0) | 16/8g | 21/10g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | 24.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 18 ✓ |
| Liam Ryan ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 96% | 10 ✓ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 23 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.78 | 87% | 28 ✗ |
| Jeremy McGovern | 19.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 18.5 | $1.86 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Cole | 15.5 | $1.82 | 55% | 13 ✓ |
| Reuben Ginbey | 15.5 | $1.84 | 49% | 11 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 29 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 35 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 92% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 22.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.86 | 90% | 17 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 78% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)