# Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne — AFL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 114 – 78 North Melbourne

_Adelaide Crows swoop on North Melbourne._

Half time: 53 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 88% / North Melbourne 12% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 30 Mar, 03:20 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Ben Keays (5' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (8' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (13' ×2), Alex Neal-Bullen (26'), Darcy Fogarty (41' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sid Draper (73' ×2), Riley Thilthorpe (95' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (32m 38s)Riley Thilthorpe (65'), Jake Soligo (74') · North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (28' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (29' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jy Simpkin (39'), Cameron Zurhaar (60'), Jack Darling (68'), Jacob Konstanty (75' ×2), Dylan Stephens (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 88% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.1 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 114–78 North Melbourne in AFL Round 3 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows put North Melbourne away 114-78 at Adelaide Oval, and the scoreboard tells you exactly how it happened: a game that was competitive for one term and then wasn't.

Quarter time had North within four, 25-21. That's a game. Half time it was 53-35, the gap out to 18. By three-quarter time Adelaide led 86-59, up 27, and from there it was just a matter of how far. They finished it off with a 28-19 last term to make it 36 at the final siren. The margin doubled, then doubled again. Once it got past 20 there was no sign of it coming back.

The clearance and inside 50 numbers explain why North never got a foothold. Adelaide won clearances 43 to 40 and pushed forward 55 times to North's 47, and when they got there they made it count, 12 marks inside 50 against North's 9. North actually had more of the ball, 364 disposals to 354, and were the cleaner side by the numbers, 75.7% efficiency to 74.6%. Didn't matter. Adelaide had it in the right areas, 138 contested possessions to 127, and tackled like it too, 58 to 47. Territory and pressure beat polish.

The pre-match ratings had this coming. Adelaide's midfield rated at 1051 against North's 916, and the forward line edge was 1035 to 978. Only spot where North rated ahead was defence, 949 to 940, and on this scoreline that edge didn't show up. The ruck battle was close on paper, 987 to 983, and Adelaide's 44 hitouts to 35 suggests it wasn't as even as the rating implied.

What makes it a bit of a curveball is the form line. North came in averaging 91.6 points a game and a positive margin of nearly 9 across their last five. Adelaide had been going the other way, averaging 74.3 for and 70.7 against, a losing margin on average. On recent form alone you'd have picked North to be the one doing the scoring. Instead Adelaide put up 114, well above their recent average, and North's 78 was well under theirs.

Alphr's model backed Adelaide at 88% and had them winning by 29.1 on a total of 180. The actual margin came in at 36 and the total finished at 192, so the model had the right side and the right shape, just slightly undercooked on both counts. All three picks landed. Adelaide's rating edge in the midfield and forward line did the job the numbers said it would, recent form or not.

North's intercept count, 66 to Adelaide's 70, and their extra marks overall, 100 to 95, say they weren't run off their feet in terms of possession. They just couldn't turn it into scoreboard pressure when it mattered, and once Adelaide's third-quarter surge hit 86-59, the contest was effectively over. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one was decided in the guts of the ground, not on the stat sheet.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 25 | 28 | 33 | 28 | 114 |
| North Melbourne | 21 | 14 | 24 | 19 | 78 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 354 | Disposals | **364** |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 127 |
| **43** | Clearances | 40 |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| 95 | Marks | **100** |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **58** | Tackles | 47 |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| **70** | Intercepts | 66 |
| 74.6% | Disposal eff. | **75.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 88% probability. The predicted margin of 29.1 was reasonable against the actual 36-point result. Adelaide Crows led 53–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.14 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 88.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 192.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 29 · Predicted total: 180

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 7 in 2g | 22/10g (2·1·4·0·1·5·2·0·4·3) | 16/6g | 97/59g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' 57' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 6 in 2g | 19/10g (2·0·1·3·1·3·2·1·2·4) | 0/3g | 43/33g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 6 in 2g | 21/10g (0·2·2·2·3·2·1·3·3·3) | 4/3g | 37/32g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 95' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 5 in 2g | 22/10g (4·1·5·1·1·3·1·1·1·4) | 8/8g | 44/62g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 84' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 4 in 2g | 20/10g (3·3·1·2·2·2·1·2·2·2) | 15/6g | 48/24g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 83% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 7/9g | 5/13g | 44% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/4g | 15/35g | 36% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 5/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 4/7g | 19/42g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 2 in 2g | 14/10g (0·2·2·0·3·2·1·2·1·1) | 38/14g | 265/117g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 52' 92' 81' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/9g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 33% | — | 🏉 13' 80' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 3/1g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sholl | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 11/44g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Matt Crouch | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 23/86g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/36g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 18/56g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 7/67g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 18/126g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 73' 88' |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 8 in 2g | 26/10g (3·3·2·3·5·1·1·0·5·3) | 15/7g | 14/5g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 32' 83' 89' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 6 in 2g | 15/10g (1·0·3·1·0·3·0·1·3·3) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 77' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 5 in 2g | 11/10g (1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·4) | 12/8g | 4/6g | 72% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·2) | 35/18g | 24/16g | 72% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 2/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·3·1·1) | 3/9g | 2/6g | 46% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/8g | 2/5g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 75' 72' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 2g | 12/10g (0·0·2·3·3·0·0·3·0·1) | 14/15g | 6/13g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 1/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Tucker | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/9g | 5/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 0 in 2g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Will Phillips | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crouch | 30.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.82 | 69% | 19 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 25.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 32 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 79% | 28 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 30 ✗ |
| Lachlan Sholl | 21.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 9 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $1.70 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 19.5 | $1.78 | 58% | 20 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 29.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 26 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.82 | 86% | 33 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.92 | 52% | 19 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.75 | 82% | 21 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 23.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 31 ✗ |
| Luke Parker ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Bailey Scott | 19.5 | $1.78 | 51% | 12 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 18.5 | $1.85 | 33% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)