# Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 76 – 64 GWS GIANTS

_Hawthorn hold off a gallant GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 46 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 72% / GWS GIANTS 28% · University of Tasmania Stadium · Sat, 29 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Lloyd Meek (36'), Josh Weddle (48'), Jai Newcombe (51'), Nick Watson (53' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (55' Tipped ⚡), Will Day (59'), Jack Gunston (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Morrison (86'), Blake Hardwick (89') · GWS GIANTS: Toby Greene (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Jesse Hogan (8' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (12' Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (19' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 72% | Won |
| GWS GIANTS | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 76–64 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 3 at University of Tasmania Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS GIANTS could not have asked for a better start. They led 37-2 at quarter time, the best opening term of the day by a distance, and it looked like Hawthorn might be in for a long afternoon at University of Tasmania Stadium.

It didn't hold. Hawthorn won 76-64, and the turnaround from that first quarter to the final siren is the whole story of this one.

Whatever was said at the first break worked. Hawthorn scored 44 points to GWS's 2 in the second term, flipping a 35-point deficit into a 46-39 lead by half time. That's about as complete a reversal as you'll see in a quarter of footy, and it came from a side whose defence rating (1116) sat well clear of GWS's (1010) heading in.

From there Hawthorn just kept the foot down. By three-quarter time it was 72-52, a 20-point buffer built on repeated forward entries rather than any one passage of magic. GWS clawed back 12 points in the final term to Hawthorn's 4, a respectable finish that tidied up the margin without ever threatening the result.

The GIANTS didn't lose the contest everywhere. Tackles went their way, 63 to 51, and the underlying numbers were tight: disposals 375 to 378, contested possessions 137 to 139, clearances locked at 33 apiece, marks even at 82 each. On paper that's a genuine arm wrestle. Where it fell apart was territory and finishing. Hawthorn went inside 50 61 times to 47, and once there they made it count, 14 marks inside 50 to GWS's 6. Add a small edge in disposal efficiency, 71.0% to 69.4%, and you've got a side that did less running around for more product.

That gap lines up with what the ratings said going in.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 2 | 44 | 26 | 4 | 76 |
| GWS GIANTS | 37 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 64 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| **378** | Disposals | 375 |
| **139** | Contested poss. | 137 |
| 33 | Clearances | 33 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| 82 | Marks | 82 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 51 | Tackles | **63** |
| **34** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| **74** | Intercepts | 70 |
| **71.0%** | Disposal eff. | 69.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hawthorn by 9.8 vs the actual margin of 12 points. The game's 140 points came in 29 points lower than the predicted 169. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 10.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.54 (edge +6.9%) — model probability 71.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 10 · Predicted total: 169

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 12 | 16 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 79/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 14/g | 21.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.3/g | 5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 8 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 149/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 9 | 2 · 1 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.7/g | 7.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.5% | 82.4% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.52) -2% · Forwards 4.26/g (lg 4.44) -4% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.57) -5%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.65/g (lg 1.34) +23% · Key Forwards 3.71/g (lg 3.57) +4% · Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.36) +3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at University of Tasmania Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 6 in 3g | 15/10g (1·1·0·2·4·0·1·2·3·1) | 8/7g | 21/17g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 6 in 3g | 16/10g (2·2·1·1·3·0·1·1·2·3) | 8/5g | 6/4g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 5 in 3g | 20/10g (2·0·0·3·3·4·3·0·3·2) | 0/1g | 6/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 4 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/11g | 1/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Will Day | MID | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/11g | 26% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 2 in 3g | 11/10g (2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0·2·0) | 3/5g | 3/3g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 2 in 1g | 17/10g (0·1·0·4·3·5·1·1·0·2) | 28/12g | 59/34g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' 90' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 14/26g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/18g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 6/14g | 42% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 5/6g | 28% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/11g | 3/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/17g | 18% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 4/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | no games | 14/10g (0·2·4·2·1·2·0·2·0·1) | 23/14g | 87/49g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 4 in 2g | 20/10g (2·3·3·1·2·2·0·3·1·3) | 15/13g | 4/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 67' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 4/10g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 2 in 2g | 14/10g (1·0·1·3·1·2·3·1·0·2) | 4/3g | 2/1g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 65% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/5g | 4/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (0·2·2·1·1·3·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/1g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 8/13g | 1/4g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Keeffe | RUC | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 2/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | no games | 18/10g (5·2·1·0·1·1·4·1·1·2) | 20/10g | 7/4g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | no games | 41/10g (5·4·4·4·5·3·6·2·3·5) | 19/8g | 3/2g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 17' 70' 86' |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/2g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 19' 65' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 27.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 64% | 13 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 21.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 21.5 | $1.80 | 48% | 21 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 24 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 70% | 30 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 22 ✗ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.82 | 71% | 34 ✗ |
| Tom Green | 28.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 31 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 24.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 29 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 24 ✗ |
| Callan Ward | 18.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 4 ✓ |
| Brent Daniels ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)