AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hawthorn by 9.8 vs the actual margin of 12 points. The game's 140 points came in 29 points lower than the predicted 169. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
72%
GWS GIANTS
28%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 84-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1487). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 9.8 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.54
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.9%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.9%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W L L L L | 79.7 |
GWS GIANTS | W W L L L | 78.0 |
Avg Conceded
83.7
Hawthorn
85.9
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
3.5
Hawthorn
-0.6
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
344.6
Hawthorn
342.5
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
56.4
Hawthorn
54.6
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +9.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.16
Team Effectiveness
0.00
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.