# AFL Round 3 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 3 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 3 at a glance
- 8 matches · 16W–8L on 24 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +19.5% edge

## Round 3 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS | Melbourne @ $2.15 | Melbourne 66% | LOST |
| West Coast Eagles v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.24 | Fremantle 96% | WON |
| Essendon v Port Adelaide | Essendon @ $2.25 | Essendon 53% | WON |
| Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS | Hawthorn @ $1.54 | Hawthorn 72% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions @ $1.44 | Brisbane Lions 74% | WON |
| Carlton v Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs @ $1.87 | Western Bulldogs 53% | WON |
| St Kilda v Richmond | St Kilda @ $1.24 | St Kilda 60% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne | Adelaide Crows @ $1.14 | Adelaide Crows 88% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 66.0% / Gold Coast SUNS 34.0%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $2.15 (edge +19.5%) — model probability 66.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 4 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-melbourne-v-gold-coast-suns

### West Coast Eagles v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 3.8% / Fremantle 96.2%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.24 (edge +15.6%) — model probability 96.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 51 · Predicted total: 153
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-west-coast-eagles-v-fremantle

### Essendon v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 53.2% / Port Adelaide 46.8%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $2.25 (edge +8.8%) — model probability 53.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 5 · Predicted total: 174
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-essendon-v-port-adelaide

### Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 71.9% / GWS GIANTS 28.1%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.54 (edge +6.9%) — model probability 71.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 10 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-hawthorn-v-gws-giants

### Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 73.5% / Geelong Cats 26.5%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.44 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 9 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-brisbane-lions-v-geelong-cats

### Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 47.3% / Western Bulldogs 52.7%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.87 (edge -80.0%) — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -80.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 13 · Predicted total: 154
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-carlton-v-western-bulldogs

### St Kilda v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 59.9% / Richmond 40.1%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.24 (edge -20.8%) — model probability 59.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond -27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 3 · Predicted total: 158
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-st-kilda-v-richmond

### Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 88.4% / North Melbourne 11.6%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.14 (edge +70.0%) — model probability 88.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +70.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 192.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 29 · Predicted total: 180
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-adelaide-crows-v-north-melbourne

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/2 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/2.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/4 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/4.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/3
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC