Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
66%
Gold Coast SUNS
34%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Gold Coast SUNS. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Melbourne carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1497). Recent form favours Melbourne with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 3.5 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @2.15
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.5%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.5%
Total Points
Over 167.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W L L | 81.5 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W L L L | 74.0 |
Avg Conceded
79.7
Melbourne
96.9
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
14.1
Melbourne
-4.1
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
351.4
Melbourne
331.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
54.0
Melbourne
46.6
Gold Coast SUNS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1522 vs 1497), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.87).
The model sides with ELO, Melbourne predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Melbourne predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +3.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.20
Team Effectiveness
+0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.