# Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 70 – 61 Geelong Cats

_Brisbane Lions rally to run down Geelong Cats from 26 down._

Half time: 22 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 74% / Geelong Cats 26% · Gabba · Sat, 29 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (12' Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (17'), Will Ashcroft (62'), Levi Ashcroft (73'), Eric Hipwood (79'), Logan Morris (87' Tipped ⚡), Bruce Reville (90'), Zac Bailey (73' Tipped ⚡), Dayne Zorko (86'), Jarrod Berry (90') · Geelong Cats: Oliver Dempsey (7' 1st), Jeremy Cameron (26' Tipped ⚡), Mark Blicavs (48'), Patrick Dangerfield (53' ×2), Max Holmes (58'), Brad Close (60'), Jhye Clark (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 74% | Won |
| Geelong Cats | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 70–61 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 3 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six down at half-time, and Brisbane Lions still found a way to win by nine. That's the kind of scoreline that needs explaining, so here it is.

Geelong Cats led 48-22 at the main break, having outscored Brisbane by 26 points across the first two quarters, 22-14 in the first and 26-8 in the second. Whatever was said at the Gabba during the long walk to the rooms, it worked. Brisbane came out and put on a third quarter that flipped the whole game, outscoring Geelong 27-0 to lead 49-48 at three-quarter time. From 26 points down to a one-point lead in a single quarter. Then they had to hold it, which they did, adding 21 to Geelong's 13 in the last term to close it out 70-61.

The inside 50 count tells you where that turnaround came from. Brisbane finished with 67 forward entries to Geelong's 48, a gap of 19 that lines up neatly with a side that kept winning the ball back and kept pushing it forward. Brisbane's disposal numbers back that up: 347 to 320, with 93 marks to 77. Volume football, essentially. Get it forward often enough and the scoreboard eventually finds a way to move, even against a game plan that had been ahead for most of the night.

Geelong were the more clinical side with what they did get forward, though. Ten marks inside 50 to Brisbane's seven says a lot about a Geelong defence that rated as the stronger unit of the two coming in, 1067 to 950. They also out-tackled Brisbane 77 to 69 and posted the better disposal efficiency, 64.4% to 62.6%. Cleaner, more efficient, better defensively rated on paper. And still lost by nine. Volume beat precision on this occasion.

Brisbane's other edges matched their pre-match strengths in patches.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 14 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 70 |
| Geelong Cats | 22 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 61 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **347** | Disposals | 320 |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 147 |
| **45** | Clearances | 43 |
| **67** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **93** | Marks | 77 |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| 69 | Tackles | **77** |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| **68** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 62.6% | Disposal eff. | **64.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 9.0 vs the actual margin of 9 points. The game's 131 points came in 33 points lower than the predicted 164. Brisbane Lions trailed 22–48 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 70–61. The model went 2/3 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 14.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.44 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 9 · Predicted total: 164

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Geelong Cats | 101 – 123 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R10 | Brisbane Lions | 76 – 117 | Geelong Cats |
| 2025 | PF | Geelong Cats | 75 – 122 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | WF | Geelong Cats | 112 – 74 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R15 | Geelong Cats | 51 – 92 | Brisbane Lions |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 5 in 2g | 14/10g (3·0·1·1·1·1·2·0·4·1) | 3/8g | 66/72g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 4 in 2g | 18/10g (2·2·0·0·2·1·3·4·1·3) | 9/12g | 28/53g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 4 in 2g | 14/10g (2·1·0·1·2·0·2·2·1·3) | 2/1g | 14/9g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·2) | 16/12g | 123/90g | 76% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 12/18g | 129/142g | 24% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/11g | 4/30g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/12g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 8/21g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/18g | 36/72g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 0 in 2g | 9/10g (3·0·0·0·3·0·2·1·0·0) | 7/9g | 68/71g | 50% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | no games | 17/10g (1·2·2·1·1·3·2·2·2·1) | 27/16g | 158/80g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/27g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 4/106g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 63/92g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/33g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 39/83g | 18% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 0 in 1g | 15/10g (1·0·0·2·3·2·2·1·4·0) | 1/3g | 16/17g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 23/102g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (1·1·0·0·1·3·3·1·2·0) | 9/9g | 8/13g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/16g | 26% | — | 🏉 62' |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 5 in 2g | 33/10g (1·2·6·1·3·9·4·2·4·1) | 34/17g | 23/12g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 5 in 2g | 18/10g (1·3·1·0·2·2·4·0·3·2) | 7/5g | 3/3g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 4 in 2g | 12/10g (1·3·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·2) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 61% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 3 in 2g | 18/10g (1·2·1·1·1·4·1·4·3·0) | 8/4g | 4/3g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 80% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 3 in 2g | 14/10g (2·1·1·2·1·2·2·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 1/6g | 64% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 19/18g | 20/16g | 54% | — | 🏉 53' 68' |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 1g | 2/4g (0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 3/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·3·2·1·0) | 9/9g | 13/9g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 1/10g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/19g | 7/14g | 32% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Mitch Knevitt | FWD | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 30.5 | $1.70 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 26.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 26 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.83 | 68% | 30 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 24.5 | $1.96 | 60% | 33 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 16 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 19.5 | $1.81 | 44% | 12 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 25 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 22.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 29 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 69% | 18 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam De Koning ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 77% | 16 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)