AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 9.0 vs the actual margin of 9 points. The game's 131 points came in 33 points lower than the predicted 164. Brisbane Lions trailed 22–48 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 70–61. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
74%
Geelong Cats
26%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Geelong Cats. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 9.0 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.44
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.1%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.1%
Total Points
Over 160.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 91.5 |
Geelong Cats | W L L L L | 104.6 |
Avg Conceded
82.4
Brisbane Lions
80.2
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
1.0
Brisbane Lions
18.1
Geelong Cats
Disposals
342.2
Brisbane Lions
363.7
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
49.1
Brisbane Lions
56.5
Geelong Cats
ELO–Market Disagreement
Geelong Cats hold the ELO advantage (1509 vs 1489), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.44).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +9.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.34
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.