AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 132 points came in 42 points lower than the predicted 174. Essendon trailed 27–30 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 72–60. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 181.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
53%
Port Adelaide
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Essendon a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO, but Essendon counter with Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1544 vs 1484). Recent form favours Essendon with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 4.8 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @2.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.8%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide +6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.8%
Total Points
Under 181.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W W L L | 75.8 |
Port Adelaide | W W L L L | 107.7 |
Avg Conceded
92.8
Essendon
72.4
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
24.3
Essendon
21.9
Port Adelaide
Disposals
341.3
Essendon
331.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
55.4
Essendon
51.6
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Essendon predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: -4.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.09
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
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