# Essendon v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 72 – 60 Port Adelaide

_Essendon hit back to topple Port Adelaide._

Half time: 27 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 53% / Port Adelaide 47% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 27 Mar, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Sam Draper (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nate Caddy (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jade Gresham (57'), Jye Menzie (66'), Archie Roberts (76'), Nic Martin (61' Tipped ⚡), Mason Redman (66') · Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (7' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Travis Boak (29'), Joe Richards (63'), Ollie Wines (71'), Darcy Byrne-Jones (84'), Jason Horne-Francis (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 53% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon vs Port Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 3, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 72–60 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 3 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide had this one for three quarters. Up 23-17 at the first break, 30-27 at half time, still ahead 50-44 heading into the last change. Then it fell apart, and it fell apart fast enough that the final margin read 72-60 the other way.

Work out the last quarter and it's ugly reading for Port: Essendon put on 28 points to their 10. A six-point deficit becomes a twelve-point loss inside twenty minutes. That's not a side fading late, that's a full reversal.

The form line coming in said Port should have been fine with a lead. They'd been scoring 107.67 a game on average and conceding just 72.35, tight numbers that suggest a team built to hold a break. Instead they finished on 60, miles under their own average, and let in 72, basically bang on what they usually concede but all delivered in the wrong order, with a third of it arriving in the final term alone.

The positional ratings back up why Port controlled most of the game. Stronger forwards, 1099 to Essendon's 932. Stronger ruck, 1044 to 1007. Even a slightly better defence rating, 998 to 963. On paper this was Port's game to lose, and for three quarters they were playing to type. What they didn't have was the midfield edge, Essendon rated 1036 to Port's 992, and it's the midfield that tends to decide who's still running out the game plan in the last quarter.

Essendon's recent form actually undersells what turned up here. They'd been averaging just 75.83 points and shipping 92.82, numbers that don't scream comeback specialists. But their win count over the last five, 3.16 to Port's 1.64, said there's more to this side than the scoring column suggests. Whatever changed after the long break, it flipped a losing position into a twelve-point win with a final-term surge that did all the damage.

Alphr's model picked Essendon to win, 53% probability, and got that right. It picked Port to win by 4.8 on the margin, and got that wrong by a fair way, the actual gap running to 12 points in the other direction. Where it did land the punch was the total: predicted 174, actual 132, and the under 181.5 call held up comfortably. Two out of three isn't a bad return on a game that flipped its whole shape in the final quarter.

Port will look at three quarters of good footy and wonder how six points up becomes twelve points down. The forward and ruck edges did their job most of the night. It's the last twenty minutes that will sting, and no amount of first-half control changes what's on the final scoreboard.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 17 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 72 |
| Port Adelaide | 23 | 7 | 20 | 10 | 60 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **399** | Disposals | 382 |
| **121** | Contested poss. | 92 |
| **32** | Clearances | 29 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| 93 | Marks | **116** |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **57** | Tackles | 41 |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **36** |
| **56** | Intercepts | 52 |
| **75.6%** | Disposal eff. | 74.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 132 points came in 42 points lower than the predicted 174. Essendon trailed 27–30 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 72–60. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 181.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $2.25 (edge +8.8%) — model probability 53.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 5 · Predicted total: 174

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 6 in 2g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·4) | 4/14g | 28/81g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 4 in 2g | 13/10g (1·0·1·1·1·3·1·1·1·3) | 0/6g | 17/22g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 77' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Thomas Edwards | FWD | 3 in 1g | 3/1g (3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·3·0·0·1·1·1) | 13/8g | 76/86g | 58% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 9/27g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 9/14g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 24/19g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 1 in 2g | 11/10g (0·4·0·0·2·0·3·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 24/25g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 8/55g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/19g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 16/42g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 9/15g | 46% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 10/42g | 14% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·1·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/5g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 73' |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 10/26g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 4 in 2g | 26/10g (5·3·3·4·2·1·3·1·0·4) | 9/3g | 13/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 16' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 4 in 2g | 18/10g (1·4·0·2·3·1·2·1·1·3) | 10/5g | 13/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 3 in 2g | 13/10g (1·2·2·2·0·0·2·1·0·3) | 9/8g | 12/12g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 67% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·2) | 11/7g | 12/13g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 2 in 2g | 11/10g (2·1·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 8/12g | 4/20g | 70% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 2 in 2g | 12/10g (1·1·2·2·2·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 5/14g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 52% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 7/27g | 22% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 10/17g | 18/32g | 30% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ivan Soldo | RUC | no games | 8/10g (2·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/9g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cochrane | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 34 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Nic Martin | 23.5 | $1.97 | 50% | 20 ✓ |
| Jordan Ridley ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 22 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 22.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Dylan Shiel | 21.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 25 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $2.00 | 48% | 9 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 19.5 | $1.95 | 47% | 22 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $2.10 | 70% | 31 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.92 | 78% | 22 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 21.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 27 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 67% | 18 ✓ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.96 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 20.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 18 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman | 17.5 | $1.78 | 61% | 26 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r3-essendon-v-port-adelaide
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)