AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 13.2 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 154 was close to the actual 158, within 4 points. Western Bulldogs trailed 47–29 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 75–83. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
47%
Western Bulldogs
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Western Bulldogs a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Western Bulldogs counter with Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 13.2 points with a combined total of 154.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.8%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.8%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W W L L L | 75.9 |
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 102.5 |
Avg Conceded
72.5
Carlton
88.3
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
14.4
Carlton
11.4
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
339.6
Carlton
366.3
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
42.3
Carlton
52.0
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1571 vs 1562), but the market favours Western Bulldogs (@1.87).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 154 · Line: -13.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.03
Team Effectiveness
-0.08
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.