Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Blues
10%
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1
90%
AI Match Overview
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1 are clear favourites here at 90%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Blues. The model sees Maroons - State of Origin Game 1 ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Recent form favours Blues with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Maroons - State of Origin Game 1. The margin model predicts Blues by 13.0 points with a combined total of 38.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
New South Wales to Win @1.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+28.8%
Line / Spread
New South Wales -4.5 -4.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+26.1%
Total Points
Under 42.5 42.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Blues | W W W L L | 22.3 |
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1 | W L L L L | 28.7 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Blues
17.8
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1
Avg Margin
4.9
Blues
2.9
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1
Run Metres
1200
Blues
1431
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1
Line Breaks
6.1
Blues
4.8
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
90%
Maroons - State of Origin Game 1 predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 38 · Line: +13.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.