# Titans v Storm — NRL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 16 – 28 Storm

_Storm blow away Titans._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 36% / Storm 64% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 31 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Jayden Campbell (6' 1st), Phillip Sami (48' Tipped ⚡), Phillip Sami (67' Tipped ⚡) · Storm: Sualauvi Faalogo (15'), Sualauvi Faalogo (36'), Tyran Wishart (39'), Grant Anderson (59' Tipped ⚡), Grant Anderson (64' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 64% | Won |
| Titans | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 16–28 Storm in NRL Round 13 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Discipline wasn't the problem for the Titans. Five penalties conceded to Storm's eight, and they still lost by 12. That tells you where this one actually went wrong.

The Titans had their moments. Jayden Campbell opened the scoring inside five minutes, and the home side finished with more offloads, 11 to 9, and a better tackle efficiency rate, 90.8% to 88.2%. Phillip Sami crossed twice. None of it was enough to paper over the ball-handling.

Fifteen errors to six is the number that sinks a side. Storm completed at 87%, the Titans at 66%, and against a team that runs for 1,767 metres when it gets quality ball, that gap in completion is a gift you can't afford to hand over. The Titans also missed 24 tackles to Storm's 20, and gave up 20 tackle breaks to Storm's 24. Small margins, most of them running one way.

Storm won it 28-16, and led 16-6 at half-time, which was already most of the job done. The Titans got the jump with Campbell's try in the fifth minute, but Sualauvi Faalogo hit back twice, at 15 and 35 minutes, either side of a Tyran Wishart try right on the stroke of half-time that made it 6-14 and then 6-16 at the break. Three tries in the space of 24 minutes for Storm, and the Titans had no answer for any of them.

The second half was Grant Anderson's turn. He scored at 58 and again at 64 to push it out to 10-26, either side of a second Sami try for the Titans at 48. Sami got his second late, at 67, but by then Storm had banked enough to see it out at 28-16.

Faalogo and Anderson doing it twice each tells its own story: the Titans' edge defence had no answer for repeat visits from the same two blokes. Storm's halves and hooker were rated well above the Titans' pre-match, 1176 to 905 and 1171 to 1089, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect it, in quality of possession and completion rate, not raw metres. The Titans actually carried the ball for reasonable metres, 1,635 to Storm's 1,767, and were within touching distance on post-contact metres too, 587 to 619. It wasn't a physical mismatch up front. It was what happened when they had the ball in hand.

Coming in, the Titans had won just one of their last five, averaging 20.8 points scored against 35.6 conceded. Storm arrived on the back of two wins from five and a healthy plus-9 average margin.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| Storm | 16 | 12 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 66% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| 1,635 | Run metres | **1,767** |
| 587 | Post-contact metres | **619** |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **24** |
| **11** | Offloads | 9 |
| **90.8%** | Effective tackle % | 88.2% |
| 24 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| 15 | Errors | **6** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 472 | Kick metres | **533** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Storm covered the 10.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (78 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Storm's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Storm have a 56% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 15' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 35' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 58' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 64' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 10-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 67' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 14-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.28 (edge -18.5%) — model probability 64.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 7 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 64%, but Titans stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 299 ELO points clear, 1630 to 1331. Form leans Storm's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Storm by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 22-18 in 2026 Round 19.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Storm 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 1 · Storm 9 |
| Last meeting | Storm 22-18 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Storm 4th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Storm 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 78 career games since 2017.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3W–9L | 25% |
| Storm | 5W–4L | 56% |

Avg total: 41.7 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Storm have won 5 of 9 games (56%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 12 (25%).

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. Storm get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Titans's +0.0. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 30.8pts |
| 35.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| -14.8pts | Avg Margin | 9.0pts |
| 1532.0m | Run Metres | 1724.0m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 349.4 | Tackles | 316.2 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 13.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20.8 |
| Storm | 2W–3L | 30.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Storm | 22 – 18 | Titans |
| 2024 | R9 | Titans | 20 – 22 | Storm |
| 2023 | R26 | Storm | 37 – 16 | Titans |
| 2023 | R3 | Titans | 38 – 34 | Storm |
| 2022 | R21 | Storm | 32 – 14 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.1 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (2.1 conceded/game). Key man: Katoa, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.7/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.4/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.7/g (def 11th) | 2.8/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.1/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.1/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 7 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 230m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 84.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 29 | 37 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 624m/g | 683m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 4.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.9% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 10 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 568m/g | 538m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.67) +3% · Wingers 1.27/g (lg 1.25) +2% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.1) -20%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.36/g (lg 0.16) +125% · Fullbacks 0.71/g (lg 0.43) +65% · 2nd Rows 0.72/g (lg 0.45) +60%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 22/22g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 18/60g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 1/3g | 8/21g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/10g | 28/58g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' 67' |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | FB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 13/29g | 30% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/67g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/26g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/36g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/32g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/22g | 9/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jaimin Jolliffe | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/41g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (2·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·4·0) | 3/6g | 5/4g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sualauvi Faalogo | WG | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 15' 36' |
| 3 | Grant Anderson | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·0·3·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' 64' |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 6/8g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 12/12g | 4/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 2/5g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/6g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 15 | Nelson Asofa-Solomona | LK | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1331 · Storm 1630 · ELO difference: 299 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1088 (best 1313) | 1068 (best 1299) | Titans +20 |
| Backs | 1126 (best 1274) | 999 (best 1117) | Titans +127 |
| Halves | 905 (best 905) | 1176 (best 1176) | Storm +272 |
| Hooker | 1089 | 1171 | Storm +82 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Storm predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)