Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (75 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Storm's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Storm have a 56% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.5 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 70% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
36%
Storm
64%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Storm ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Storm carry a 299-point ELO rating advantage (1630 vs 1331). Recent form favours Storm with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Storm by 6.6 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.28
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.5%
Line / Spread
Storm +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.5%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W L L L L | 20.8 |
Storm | W W L L L | 30.8 |
Avg Conceded
35.6
Titans
21.8
Storm
Avg Margin
-14.8
Titans
9.0
Storm
Run Metres
1532
Titans
1724
Storm
Line Breaks
4.2
Titans
5.6
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormZiggy Przeklasa-Adamski
75 career games · since 2017
Win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Storm have won 5 of 9 games (56%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 12 (25%).
Avg Total
41.7 pts
Home Win %
45%
Home Bias
Leans away
Pen / Game
13.5
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
70%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.5 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.4 against home vs 7.1 against away. Storm get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Titans's +0.0. 70% of his 37 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Storm predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -6.6
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