# Panthers v Eels — NRL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 18 – 10 Eels

_Panthers pounce on Eels._

Half time: 6 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 70% / Eels 30% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 01 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Casey McLean (18' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Jenkins (58' Tipped ⚡), Brian To'o (73' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Sean Russell (4' 1st), Josh Addo-Carr (45' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 70% | Won |
| Eels | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Panthers 18–10 Eels in NRL Round 13 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

A 232-metre gap in the carries told most of the story here. Panthers ran for 1,804 metres to the Eels' 1,572, and it was enough to get them home 18-10 at CommBank Stadium, even with the ball doing plenty of damage in Parramatta's hands too.

The scoreboard took its time reflecting that gap. Sean Russell put the Eels up 4-0 inside three minutes, and Casey McLean's try on 17 minutes squared it at 4-4 heading into the sheds, Panthers up 6-4 at the break on the back of a single point. Josh Addo-Carr restored the Eels' lead just after halftime, 8-6, before Thomas Jenkins levelled it at 10-10 in the 57th minute. Brian To'o then did what the metre count suggested he'd eventually do, crossing in the 73rd to make it 16-10 and put the game out of reach.

Strip away the final score and the Eels arguably played the tidier footy. They completed at 81% to the Panthers' 86%, sure, but coughed the ball up only 9 times against 12, and their 91.7% effective tackle rate comfortably beat the Panthers' 89%. Missed tackles told the same tale: Panthers put down 33, Eels just 26. On paper that's a defensive performance you'd back to win most weeks.

It didn't, because the Panthers simply carried it better and further. Their 596 post-contact metres to the Eels' 530 is the number that mattered most once you strip away possession, which was locked at 50-50. Offloads went the other way, 11 to 5 for the Eels, and tackle breaks too, 33 to 26. But none of that ball-playing flair translated into enough tries, because the hard yards up the middle kept the Panthers in field position and let them win the arm wrestle.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged reasonably well. Alphr's model rated the Panthers' halves at 1,202 against the Eels' 1,099, a gap that showed up in how the Panthers structured their attack even when the completion numbers didn't favour them. The Eels came in with the better backs (1,105 to 1,003) and had won 3 of their last 5 compared to the Panthers' 2, averaging 26 points a game to the Panthers' 23.6. Recent form suggested a shootout. Instead this was a grind, and a low-scoring one at that: 28 points combined, 16 fewer than the model's projected total of 44.

Where the model earned its keep was the margin. Panthers by 7.5 was the pre-match line, the actual result was Panthers by 8, and the 70% win probability held up without any drama. Seven from sixteen isn't a night to brag about, but the shape of the read was right: forward-pack pressure over polish, yardage over completion rate, and a favourite that covered the 4.5-point line while the total sailed comfortably under 45.5.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| Eels | 4 | 6 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 81% |
| **1,804** | Run metres | 1,572 |
| **596** | Post-contact metres | 530 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **33** |
| 5 | Offloads | **11** |
| 89.0% | Effective tackle % | **91.7%** |
| 33 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **748** | Kick metres | 736 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 7.5 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 28 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 44. The model went 7/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 4.5-point line. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 16 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Panthers have a 67% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Sean Russell (Eels) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 45' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 57' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 73' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.60 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 70.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 70% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 55 ELO points clear, 1472 to 1417. Form leans Eels' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Panthers.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Panthers by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 24-18 in 2026 Round 21.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Panthers 17th against Eels 15th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Eels 2 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 24-18 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers at home | 6-6 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 17th · Eels 15th |
| Finals odds | Panthers 100% · Eels 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14W–7L | 67% |
| Eels | 10W–20L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 14 of 21 games (67%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Eels get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Panthers's -0.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 1705.0m | Run Metres | 1814.2m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 369.4 | Tackles | 342.6 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 2W–3L | 23.6 |
| Eels | 3W–2L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Eels | 18 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2026 | R4 | Panthers | 48 – 20 | Eels |
| 2025 | R19 | Eels | 10 – 32 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R23 | Eels | 34 – 36 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R2 | Panthers | 26 – 18 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 15th there (1.64 conceded/game). Key man: To'o, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 13th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Lomax, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.36/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.45/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.73/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.64/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.64/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 9th) | 1.55/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.73/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.91/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 202m/g | 182m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 85.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 27 | 21 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 737m/g | 758m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.5/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 78.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 10 | 6 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 488m/g | 450m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42%
**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.44) -2% · 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.45) -7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 4/10g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 5/8g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 10/13g | 4/9g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/13g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/17g | 1/12g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/22g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Sommerton | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Matthew Eisenhuth | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/20g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Luron Patea | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Hassett | Replacement | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 3/12g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sean Russell | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 12/26g | 20% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 4 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·2·2·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 7/13g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/12g | 15/60g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/19g | 16/56g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 9/76g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | INT | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/22g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 2/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 5% | — | — |
| 16 | Ryan Matterson | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 5/51g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Joash Papalii | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1472 · Eels 1417 · ELO difference: 55 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1156 (best 1292) | 1169 (best 1373) | Eels +14 |
| Backs | 1003 (best 1055) | 1105 (best 1233) | Eels +102 |
| Halves | 1202 (best 1202) | 1099 (best 1099) | Panthers +103 |
| Hooker | 951 | 1036 | Eels +84 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Panthers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)