Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 7.5 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 28 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 44. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 28 points was 16 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Panthers have a 70% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
70%
Eels
30%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Panthers carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1472 vs 1417). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 7.5 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.6%
Line / Spread
Panthers -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.6%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | W W L L L | 23.6 |
Eels | W W W L L | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
20.2
Panthers
17.2
Eels
Avg Margin
3.4
Panthers
8.8
Eels
Run Metres
1705
Panthers
1814
Eels
Line Breaks
4.0
Panthers
6.2
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 14 of 20 games (70%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Eels get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Panthers's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Panthers predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +7.5
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.