# Cowboys v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 32 – 28 Wests Tigers

_Cowboys round up Wests Tigers in a tight one._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 67% / Wests Tigers 33% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 31 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: John Bateman (13' 1st), Jaxon Purdue (16' Tipped ⚡), Scott Drinkwater (39'), Jeremiah Nanai (41' Tipped ⚡), Jaxson Paulo (46'), Tom Dearden (57') · Wests Tigers: Starford To'a (24' Tipped ⚡), Starford To'a (63' Tipped ⚡), Heath Mason (65'), Charlie Staines (67' Tipped ⚡), Jahream Bula (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 67% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Cowboys 32–28 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 13 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty minutes shaped this one, and it wasn't really a contest for most of it. Jarome Luai's sin bin in the 11th minute opened the door, and by the 45th, Cowboys had walked through it five times. John Bateman opened the scoring in the 13th, Jaxon Purdue followed three minutes later, and when Adam Doueihi joined Luai in the bin at the 36th, Cowboys cashed in again through Scott Drinkwater right on the stroke of half-time. The scoreboard read 18-6 at the break, and it kept climbing: Jeremiah Nanai and Jaxson Paulo crossed either side of the hour mark to push it to 26-6, then Tom Dearden made it 30-6 in the 57th. For a stretch there, Wests Tigers were down two players and down on the board by 24.

Then the game turned into something else entirely. Starford To'a, who'd already scored once in the 24th, crossed again in the 62nd. Heath Mason followed two minutes later, Charlie Staines got one in the 67th, and Jahream Bula completed the set in the 75th. Four tries in thirteen minutes, and suddenly a laugher was a four-point game at 32-28. Cowboys held on, but only just.

The final numbers don't scream 32-28. Wests Tigers actually had more of the ball, 52% to 48%, and out-offloaded Cowboys 17 to 8, with more tackle breaks too, 43 to 40. But Cowboys were the tidier side when it counted: 82% completion against 78%, and only 10 errors to Wests Tigers' 12. In a game this tight on the ledger, that handful of extra chances mattered.

Effective tackling told a different story though. Wests Tigers defended at 85.8% to Cowboys' 81.8%, which sits oddly next to conceding 32 points, but it's a reminder that a chunk of Wests Tigers' four-try burst came from broken-field footy rather than sustained pressure.

The positional read explains a lot of this. Wests Tigers came in with the far stronger hooker rating, 1333 to 963, and a backline edge too, 1017 to 925, and it showed in that scrambling second-half finish. Cowboys' edge up front, 1061 to 1035, and their form line, an average margin of plus 3.6 against Wests Tigers' minus 16.4 over the last five, gave them the platform to build the early lead that ultimately proved just enough.

Alphr's model had Cowboys at 67% to win, with a predicted margin of 10.5 and a combined total of 45. The actual margin came in at 4, and the total blew out to 60, fifteen points over the forecast. Called the right team, undercooked how alive Wests Tigers would be at the end. Cowboys covered the 7.5-point line regardless, and the model finished 7 from 16 on the match markets.

Wests Tigers will look at those four late tries and wonder what a clean bill of health early might have done. Two players in the bin inside 25 minutes is a hard hole to climb out of, and by the time they started scoring, the margin was already too big to fully repair.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 18 | 14 | 32 |
| Wests Tigers | 6 | 22 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **2,019** | Run metres | 1,956 |
| 583 | Post-contact metres | **590** |
| 8 | Line breaks | 8 |
| 40 | Tackle breaks | **43** |
| 8 | Offloads | **17** |
| 81.8% | Effective tackle % | **85.8%** |
| 43 | Missed tackles | **40** |
| **10** | Errors | 12 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| 494 | Kick metres | **501** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 10.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 7/16 on this match. Cowboys covered the 7.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Cowboys's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Cowboys have a 54% win rate under this referee. Cowboys's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Sin Bin — Jarome Luai (Wests Tigers) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 13' Try — John Bateman (Cowboys) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 16' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 24' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 36' Sin Bin — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 14-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 39' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 40' Try — Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Jaxson Paulo (Cowboys) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 57' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 30-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 62' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 32-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 64' Try — Heath Mason (Wests Tigers) — 32-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 67' Try — Charlie Staines (Wests Tigers) — 32-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 32-28 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.40 (edge -5.4%) — model probability 67.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 11 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cowboys here: 67% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cowboys sit 125 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1361.

Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Cowboys by 10.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Cowboys to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 24-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 7th against Wests Tigers 12th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 24-10 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys at home | 5-7 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 7th · Wests Tigers 12th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 27W–23L | 54% |
| Wests Tigers | 11W–28L | 28% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Cowboys have won 27 of 50 games (54%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 39 (28%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Cowboys get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Wests Tigers's -0.6. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 34.0pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | -16.4pts |
| 1853.0m | Run Metres | 1625.8m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 337.2 | Tackles | 341.0 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 2W–3L | 27.2 |
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Cowboys | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2026 | R2 | Wests Tigers | 44 – 16 | Cowboys |
| 2025 | R25 | Wests Tigers | 28 – 34 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 30 – 48 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R12 | Cowboys | 42 – 28 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the middle: NRL's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 17th there (2.55 conceded/game). Key man: Dearden, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.18 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 14th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.9/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.2/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.18/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.55/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.9/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.18/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.55/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 215m/g | 243m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 82.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 23 | 26 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 757m/g | 668m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.5% | 76.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 12 | 6 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 458m/g | 537m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.64/g (lg 0.43) +49% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 17/61g | 28% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 7 in 8g | 7/9g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 6/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/17g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Jaxson Paulo | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 6 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 18/47g | 28% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 3/59g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 18/61g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam McIntyre | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/7g | 4% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 7/6g | 24/37g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/38g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/42g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 6/46g | 6% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/4g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (3·2·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 2/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 63' |
| 5 | Charlie Staines | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| 6 | Heath Mason | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/12g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Royce Hunt | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Brent Naden | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 3/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1486 · Wests Tigers 1361 · ELO difference: 125 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1061 (best 1200) | 1035 (best 1281) | Cowboys +26 |
| Backs | 925 (best 1028) | 1017 (best 1107) | Wests Tigers +92 |
| Halves | 995 (best 995) | 990 (best 990) | Cowboys +5 |
| Hooker | 963 | 1333 | Wests Tigers +370 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Cowboys |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)