Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 10.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Cowboys's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Cowboys have a 54% win rate under this referee. Cowboys's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
67%
Wests Tigers
33%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Referee Tendency. Cowboys carry a 125-point ELO rating advantage (1486 vs 1361). The margin model predicts Cowboys by 10.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W W L L L | 27.2 |
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Cowboys
34.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
3.6
Cowboys
-16.4
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1853
Cowboys
1626
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
6.2
Cowboys
3.4
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Cowboys have won 27 of 50 games (54%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 39 (28%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Wests Tigers's -0.3. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Cowboys predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +10.5
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