AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Cowboys's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Cowboys have a 54% win rate under this referee. Cowboys's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 10.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
67%
Wests Tigers
33%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Referee Tendency. Cowboys carry a 125-point ELO rating advantage (1486 vs 1361). The margin model predicts Cowboys by 10.5 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | WWLLL | 27.2 |
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Cowboys
34.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
3.6
Cowboys
-16.4
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1853
Cowboys
1626
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
6.2
Cowboys
3.4
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Cowboys have won 26 of 48 games (54%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 38 (29%). That's a 25‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Cowboys predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +10.5
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