Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 3.2 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 66 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 48. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 16 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 63% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
49%
Warriors
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Warriors a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Rabbitohs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency, but Warriors counter with ELO Difference and Halves Control which tips the scales. Warriors carry a 118-point ELO rating advantage (1543 vs 1425). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Warriors by 3.2 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.6%
Line / Spread
Warriors +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.6%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 12.8 |
Warriors | W W W W L | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Rabbitohs
16.0
Warriors
Avg Margin
-9.6
Rabbitohs
3.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1599
Rabbitohs
1669
Warriors
Line Breaks
2.4
Rabbitohs
3.8
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Warriors hold a 13-point edge: 5W–3L (63%) vs Rabbitohs's 3W–3L (50%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Rabbitohs).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Warriors predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: -3.2
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