# Rabbitohs v Warriors — NRL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 30 – 36 Warriors

_Warriors hold off a fast-finishing Rabbitohs._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 49% / Warriors 51% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 01 June, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Keaon Koloamatangi (8'), Alex Johnston (28' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (58' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (62' Tipped ⚡), Latrell Mitchell (76') · Warriors: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Rocco Berry (32' Tipped ⚡), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (38'), Leka Halasima (47'), Luke Metcalf (50' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (54' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 51% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.2 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 30–36 Warriors in NRL Round 13 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Warriors winning by 3.2 points in a 48-point game. What turned up was a 36-30 Warriors win by 6, in a game that produced 66 points, 18 more than the model's total. Close enough on the margin to call it a good read, well short on the total. Whatever the model expected out of this one, it wasn't Alex Johnston crossing three times.

The shape of the game explains why the model liked Warriors at all. They came in off four wins from five, averaging 19.4 points a game to the Rabbitohs' 12.8, and a positive average margin of 3.4 against Souths' minus 9.6. The positional ratings were mixed: Rabbitohs held the edge in forwards, 1138 to 1056, and hooker, 1104 to 937, but Warriors were stronger in the halves, 1173 to 1142. The overall rating gap, 1543 to 1425, always had Warriors as the narrow favourite, and the model gave them 51% to win. It got there. Just not comfortably.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak got Warriors off the mark inside three minutes, and from there it was end to end. Koloamatangi levelled it at 4-4 in the 8th minute, Johnston's first try put Souths up 10-4 in the 27th, then Berry and Nicoll-Klokstad hit back either side of half-time to leave Warriors 14-12 up at the break. Nothing in that first half suggested a 66-point finish.

The second half is where the form lines caught up with Souths. Warriors scored four straight through Halasima, Metcalf and two from Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, turning that two-point half-time lead into a 16-point buffer at 12-28 inside the first quarter-hour after the resumption. Johnston's second and third tries dragged Souths back within striking range, and Latrell Mitchell's try in the 75th made the final margin respectable, but the damage from that Warriors burst had already been done.

The stat sheet backs it up. Warriors ran for 1,738 metres to Souths' 1,529, added 544 post-contact metres to 456, and turned that go-forward into six line breaks to five, plus nine offloads to seven. Rabbitohs were the tidier side of the two, completing at 82% against 80%, coughing up seven errors to nine, and conceding just one penalty to Warriors' four. Souths also edged the tackle-break count, 34 to 29, and had a slightly better effective tackle rate, 89.0% to 88.6%. None of it mattered enough. Missed tackles told a similar story either way, Rabbitohs at 29, Warriors at 34, so both defences had holes in them on the night.

Johnston's hat-trick was the individual story for Souths, and without it this isn't a six-point game. For Warriors, Tuivasa-Sheck's double either side of the hour mark did the same job in reverse, answering every Rabbitohs surge before it could build momentum.

As for the model, 9 from 16 on the finer betting markets isn't a bad night's work. It picked the winner, had Warriors covering the head-to-head line at minus 1.5, and got the over on 45.5 easily, given the game blew past even its own inflated total. The margin call of 3.2 landed within reach of the real number, 6. Where it fell over was scale: nobody had this down as a 66-point shootout, least of all the model that set the total at 48.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 18 | 30 |
| Warriors | 14 | 22 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| 1,529 | Run metres | **1,738** |
| 456 | Post-contact metres | **544** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **34** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| **89.0%** | Effective tackle % | 88.6% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| **7** | Errors | 9 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 674 | Kick metres | **703** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 3.2 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 66 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 48. The model went 9/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 1.5-point line. The over 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 16 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 70% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 8' Try — Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 31' Try — Rocco Berry (Warriors) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 12-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 12-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 50' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 12-24 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 54' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 12-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 58' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 16-30 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 62' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 22-30 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 72' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 24-34 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 75' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 28-36 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.75 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 50.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Rabbitohs and Warriors. The model can't split them, landing on Warriors at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 118 ELO points clear, 1543 to 1425. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

On paper Rabbitohs shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Warriors, which says ELO Difference and Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Warriors by 3.2, with the two sides combining for about 48. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 45-26 in 2026 Round 25.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Rabbitohs 3, Warriors 3.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 6th against Warriors 3rd.

Rabbitohs come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 7 · Warriors 3 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 45-26 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 6th · Warriors 3rd |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Rest gap | Rabbitohs 13d · Warriors 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4W–4L | 50% |
| Warriors | 7W–3L | 70% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 4 from 8 (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 12.8pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -9.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.4pts |
| 1599.4m | Run Metres | 1669.0m |
| 2.4 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 371.4 | Tackles | 375.6 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 12.8 |
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 45 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 4 – 34 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R18 | Warriors | 6 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2022 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 48 – 10 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R10 | Warriors | 30 – 32 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 9th there (1.45 conceded/game). Key man: Gray, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 13th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Metcalf, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.55/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.55/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) | 0.82/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 12 | 12 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 201m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 17 | 16 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 648m/g | 640m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.9/g | 12.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.4% | 82.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 9 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 492m/g | 566m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.43) +2% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.27) +63% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latrell Mitchell | FB | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 24/42g | 36% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·2·0·1·0·1) | 12/10g | 80/86g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 58' 62' |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/25g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 25/53g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 6 | Jayden Sullivan | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 7g | 2/9g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Jai Arrow | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 2/33g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/12g | 2/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 10/43g | 14% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 5/16g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | INT | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/10g | 40% | — | — |
| 15 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/26g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 5/59g | 6% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 5/20g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Rocco Berry | CE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/13g | 7/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' 73' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 3/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 3/20g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Leka Halasima | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Jackson Ford | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.50 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1425 · Warriors 1543 · ELO difference: 118 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1138 (best 1375) | 1056 (best 1397) | Rabbitohs +82 |
| Backs | 962 (best 1091) | 904 (best 1054) | Rabbitohs +58 |
| Halves | 1142 (best 1142) | 1173 (best 1173) | Warriors +31 |
| Hooker | 1104 | 937 | Rabbitohs +167 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Warriors predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)