Win Probability
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 63% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.3 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 50, within 5 points. Raiders trailed 12–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–26. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 6 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Raiders bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 60% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
63%
Raiders
37%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. Raiders carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1594 vs 1539). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Roosters by 3.3 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.2%
Line / Spread
Roosters +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.2%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W L L | 31.2 |
Raiders | W W W W L | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Roosters
22.4
Raiders
Avg Margin
6.4
Roosters
4.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1706
Roosters
1703
Raiders
Line Breaks
6.2
Roosters
5.6
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Roosters hold a 14-point edge: 42W–28L (60%) vs Raiders's 24W–28L (46%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Raiders get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1594 vs 1539), but the market favours Roosters (@1.90).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Roosters predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +3.3
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