# Roosters v Raiders — NRL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 24 – 26 Raiders

_Raiders roar back to raid Roosters from 8 down._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 63% / Raiders 37% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 01 June, 06:15 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), James Tedesco (40' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (54' Tipped ⚡), Robert Toia (79' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Xavier Savage (31' Tipped ⚡), Simi Sasagi (46'), Hudson Young (59' Tipped ⚡), Joseph Tapine (62'), Ethan Strange (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 63% | Lost |
| Raiders | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.3 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 24–26 Raiders in NRL Round 13 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen errors to eight. That's the number that undid the Roosters, and it's how the Raiders walked out of Allianz Stadium with a 26-24 win after trailing 12-4 at the break.

The Roosters had the better start and, on paper, the better everything else that usually wins you footy games in Sydney. James Tedesco and Mark Nawaqanitawase both scored inside the first 39 minutes, the home side built a healthy buffer, and the pre-match model liked them by 3.3 points off the back of a stronger halves rating, 1145 to 829. None of that mattered once the ball started spilling loose in their own hands.

Completion rate tells the story on its own. Roosters finished at 63%, Raiders at 88%. With 58% of the ball and a completion rate 25 points better than their opposition, Canberra simply got more cracks at it and made more of them count. They ran for 1,769 metres to the Roosters' 1,461, and found an extra 149 post-contact metres on top of that. That's a forward pack, rated marginally ahead of the Roosters' pack pre-game at 1098 to 1085, doing exactly what it was rated to do.

The Roosters didn't just lose the arm-wrestle, they gave field position away too. Canberra's kicking game put up 778 metres to the Roosters' 575, which meant Sydney kept starting sets from deep in unfavourable territory, then compounding it with handling errors. Sixteen errors against four penalties conceded tells you discipline wasn't really the issue. Their hands were.

The comeback itself came in bursts. Canberra chipped away through Xavier Savage and Simi Sasagi either side of half-time to get within four, then Daniel Tupou restored an eight-point buffer for the Roosters at 16-8. From there it turned into precisely the shootout nobody predicted at kick-off. Hudson Young and Joseph Tapine scored inside four minutes of each other to level it up, Ethan Strange's try with 73 gone put the Raiders in front for the first time all match, and Robert Toia's late four-pointer for the Roosters only closed the margin to two, not the gap itself.

Individually, Nawaqanitawase's opening try set the tone the Roosters wanted, and Tedesco's soon after had them looking comfortable. But five different Raiders crossed to the Roosters' four, and that spread of scorers, Savage, Sasagi, Young, Tapine and Strange, says more about how the momentum shifted than any one performance does.

Alphr's model had backed the Roosters at 63% and picked the total at 45. The actual total landed at 50, close enough, and the margin came in at 2 against a predicted 3.3, which isn't far off either. The winner, though, it got wrong. Seven from sixteen for the model on this one. The stat sheet had been screaming an upset all night, in the shape of a completion-rate gap that a 12-4 head start was never quite big enough to survive.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Raiders | 4 | 22 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 42% | Possession | **58%** |
| 63% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| 1,461 | Run metres | **1,769** |
| 478 | Post-contact metres | **627** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 35 |
| **13** | Offloads | 8 |
| **90.1%** | Effective tackle % | 84.4% |
| **35** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| 16 | Errors | **8** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 575 | Kick metres | **778** |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 63% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.3 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 50, within 5 points. Raiders trailed 12–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–26. The model went 7/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Raiders bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 60% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 31' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 39' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 45' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 53' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 16-8 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 58' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 18-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 62' Try — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 18-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 73' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 18-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 78' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 22-26 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.90 (edge +0.2%) — model probability 62.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 63%, but Raiders stay live at 37%. The ratings say otherwise: Raiders sit 55 ELO points clear, 1594 to 1539, so the model is backing Roosters against the ratings gap. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Roosters.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Roosters by 3.3, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 11th against Raiders 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 26-0 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 11th · Raiders 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 43W–29L | 60% |
| Raiders | 25W–29L | 46% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 14-point edge: 43W–29L (60%) vs Raiders's 25W–29L (46%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Raiders get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 31.2pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 1706.4m | Run Metres | 1703.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 320.0 | Tackles | 342.6 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 3W–2L | 31.2 |
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Raiders | 0 – 26 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R26 | Roosters | 12 – 14 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R12 | Raiders | 16 – 44 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R17 | Roosters | 18 – 20 | Raiders |
| 2022 | R13 | Raiders | 22 – 16 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 7th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.45/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 7th) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.82/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2.09/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.42/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 11th) | 1.33/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 11 | 7 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 190m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 30 | 30 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 700m/g | 677m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.5/g | 19.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 78.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 19 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 596m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 9/17g | 22/42g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 11/17g | 63/92g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| 8 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 2/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 5/37g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 7/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/7g | 7/38g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0·1·1) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Levi | HK | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1594 vs 1539), but the market favours Roosters (@1.90). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1539 · Raiders 1594 · ELO difference: 55 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1085 (best 1293) | 1098 (best 1309) | Raiders +14 |
| Backs | 1079 (best 1192) | 956 (best 1027) | Roosters +123 |
| Halves | 1145 (best 1145) | 829 (best 829) | Roosters +315 |
| Hooker | 960 | 1116 | Raiders +156 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Roosters predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)