# Sea Eagles v Broncos — NRL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 34 – 6 Broncos

_Sea Eagles swoop on Broncos._

Half time: 22 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 54% / Broncos 46% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 31 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Clayton Faulalo (6' 1st), Clayton Faulalo (22' 1st), Nathan Brown (27'), Haumole Olakau'atu (38'), Haumole Olakau'atu (70'), Tolutau Koula (78' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Ezra Mam (13' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 54% | Won |
| Broncos | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 34–6 Broncos in NRL Round 13 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos came into this one with the better halves rating on paper, 1298 to 1150, and it showed in patches. They edged the tackle-break count 24 to 22, tackled at 93.5% effective against the Sea Eagles' 89.9%, and gave away one fewer penalty than they took. On another day that discipline and go-forward in the tackle might have been enough to hang around.

It wasn't enough here. Final score: Sea Eagles 34, Broncos 6, at Brookvale Oval.

The Broncos' problem was what they did with the ball rather than what they did without it. Eleven errors to the Sea Eagles' six is a lot of possession handed back, and with only 42% of the ball to begin with, every cough-up mattered more. They managed just 692 kick metres to the Sea Eagles' 1,084, so territory was a lost cause most of the night, and two line breaks against six tells you how rarely they actually threatened the tryline.

Ezra Mam got them on the board in the 12th minute, cancelling out Clayton Faulalo's opener and levelling things at 4-4. That was as good as it got. Faulalo crossed again in the 21st, Nathan Brown followed in the 26th, and Haumole Olakau'atu got his first in the 38th to send the Sea Eagles in at the break 22-6 up. From 4-4 to 22-6 in the space of 26 minutes is the kind of stretch that decides a game before it's half done.

The second half was mop-up. Olakau'atu grabbed his second in the 70th, Tolutau Koula added another in the 77th, and the margin blew out to 28. Faulalo finished with two, Olakau'atu with two, Brown and Koula with one apiece, six tries to Broncos' one.

Sea Eagles ran for 1,882 metres to the Broncos' 1,477 and backed it up after contact too, 643 post-contact metres to 549, which lines up with a forward pack rated 1211 to the Broncos' 1040 going in. Completing at 88% against 75% meant they simply had more sets to work with, and with 58% possession they made the Broncos do the chasing all night.

Form lines suggested this would be tighter than it was. The Broncos had been outscoring the Sea Eagles on recent average, 21.6 points to 18.4, and the model's pre-match margin pick had Broncos winning by 1.1 on a combined total of 44. The total wasn't far off, 40 points in the end, but the margin read was nowhere near it. Alphr's model got the winner right at 54% and the under on 47.5 total, but a 28-point margin against a predicted Broncos win by 1.1 is as wrong as a margin call gets. Four from sixteen on this one.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 22 | 12 | 34 |
| Broncos | 6 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **58%** | Possession | 42% |
| **88%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,882** | Run metres | 1,477 |
| **643** | Post-contact metres | 549 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 22 | Tackle breaks | **24** |
| **6** | Offloads | 4 |
| 89.9% | Effective tackle % | **93.5%** |
| 24 | Missed tackles | **22** |
| **6** | Errors | 11 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **1,084** | Kick metres | 692 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Sea Eagles led 22–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 12' Try — Ezra Mam (Broncos) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -10 pts
- 21' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Nathan Brown (Sea Eagles) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 38' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 70' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 32-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.65 (edge +8.6%) — model probability 54.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 54%, but Broncos stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 52 ELO points clear, 1476 to 1424. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Broncos.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Broncos by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Broncos have won 7 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 9th against Broncos 8th.

Broncos come in fresher, 13 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 5 · Broncos 5 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 32-4 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 9th · Broncos 8th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Broncos 100% |
| Rest gap | Sea Eagles 7d · Broncos 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 17W–24L | 41% |
| Broncos | 18W–23L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Sea Eagles 17W–24L (41%) and Broncos 18W–23L (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Broncos's -1.4. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 1681.6m | Run Metres | 1596.0m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 348.2 | Tackles | 351.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 18.4 |
| Broncos | 1W–4L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 4 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R11 | Sea Eagles | 12 – 13 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 6 – 32 | Broncos |
| 2022 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 0 – 38 | Broncos |
| 2021 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 50 – 6 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.45 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.82 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 5th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Arthars, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.09/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.82/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 12th) | 1.55/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.55/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 6 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 208m/g | 112m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 24 | 30 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 720m/g | 656m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.5/g | 17.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 78.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 522m/g | 603m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 12/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.67) +6%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.25) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 6/12g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 17/30g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·4·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 37/54g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Talau | WG | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 8/12g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 5/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 39/133g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/31g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh Aloiai | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/29g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 16/38g | 28% | — | 🏉 38' 70' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 8/28g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.10 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Lachlan Croker | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 12/45g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/28g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/20g | 0% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 17 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesse Arthars | FB | 11 in 11g | 10/10g (3·1·0·2·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 5 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/3g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Brendan Piakura | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Benjamin Te Kura | INT | no games | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1476 · Broncos 1424 · ELO difference: 52 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1211 (best 1287) | 1040 (best 1311) | Sea Eagles +171 |
| Backs | 999 (best 1133) | 970 (best 1081) | Sea Eagles +29 |
| Halves | 1150 (best 1150) | 1298 (best 1298) | Broncos +148 |
| Hooker | 815 | 864 | Broncos +49 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r13-sea-eagles-v-broncos
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)