Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Sea Eagles led 22–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
54%
Broncos
46%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 52-point ELO rating advantage (1476 vs 1424). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Broncos by 1.1 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.6%
Line / Spread
Broncos -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.6%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 18.4 |
Broncos | W L L L L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sea Eagles
24.4
Broncos
Avg Margin
-0.8
Sea Eagles
-2.8
Broncos
Run Metres
1682
Sea Eagles
1596
Broncos
Line Breaks
4.2
Sea Eagles
5.4
Broncos
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Sea Eagles 16W–22L (42%) and Broncos 17W–22L (44%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.8 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Broncos's -1.5. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -1.1
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.