Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dragons to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 26 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 44. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 17 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dragons bucked the trend, Knights historically win 47% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
70%
Knights
30%
AI Match Overview
Dragons are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Dragons carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1408 vs 1383). The margin model predicts Dragons by 6.6 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.5%
Line / Spread
Dragons -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.5%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W W L L L | 22.0 |
Knights | W W L L L | 18.6 |
Avg Conceded
27.8
Dragons
17.6
Knights
Avg Margin
-5.8
Dragons
1.0
Knights
Run Metres
1659
Dragons
1868
Knights
Line Breaks
6.0
Dragons
6.0
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Knights hold a 8-point edge: 15W–17L (47%) vs Dragons's 15W–23L (39%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Dragons get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Knights's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Dragons predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +6.6
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