# Dragons v Knights — NRL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 20 – 6 Knights

_Dragons breathe fire on Knights._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 70% / Knights 30% · Jubilee Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 30 May, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Jaydn Su'A (21' 1st), Clinton Gutherson (25' Tipped ⚡), Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga (37') · Knights: Kai Pearce-Paul (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 70% | Won |
| Knights | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 20–6 Knights in NRL Round 13 at Jubilee Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen points to nothing at the break tells you most of what you need to know about this one, and the second half didn't have much interest in rewriting it. Dragons led 18-0 at half-time at Jubilee Stadium and closed it out 20-6, with the Knights' only real say in proceedings coming from a single Kai Pearce-Paul try well after the contest had been settled.

The damage was done early and it came in a hurry. Jaydn Su'A opened the scoring in the 20th minute, Clinton Gutherson followed four minutes later, and Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga made it three tries in sixteen minutes when he crossed in the 36th. Three tries, no reply, and the Knights were already staring at a scoreboard that doesn't get friendlier from there. Pearce-Paul's try in the 69th minute was tidy enough on its own terms, but by then it barely mattered.

What's notable is that this result ran against the pre-match shape of the two rosters. The Knights came in with the stronger forward pack on the ratings, 1210 to 1101, and a big edge in the halves, 1276 to 987. On paper that's the sort of gap that should show up in field position and go-forward. Instead it was the Dragons doing the heavy lifting, out-gaining the Knights 1,954 run metres to 1,586 and doubling them up on post-contact metres, 699 to 495. Whatever the Knights' spine advantage was supposed to deliver, it didn't turn into territory or go-forward on the day.

The completion numbers explain a lot of it. Dragons finished at 77% with just 13 errors, the Knights at 70% with 16, and every extra set the Dragons kept alive was another chance to lean on a defence that was already under the pump. Dragons broke the line four times to two and racked up 39 tackle breaks to the Knights' 18, numbers that point to a team that was hard to bring down all afternoon. On the other side of the ball, the Knights missed 39 tackles to the Dragons' 18, and an effective tackle rate of 87.5% against 92.6% is the kind of gap that turns line breaks into points on the scoreboard.

Discipline didn't help the visitors either. Nine penalties conceded to five gave the Dragons a steady supply of extra ball, and the Knights' 558 kick metres to 516 suggests a side that spent more of the day defending its own end than troubling anyone else's line.

It's a form-line reversal too. The Dragons arrived having conceded 27.8 points a game across their last five outings, the Knights just 17.6, with the Knights actually holding a positive average margin coming in. None of that turned up at Jubilee Stadium, where the home side's completion, line-break count and post-contact output all pointed the other way.

Alphr's model backed the Dragons at 70% and picked them by 6.6 points inside a projected 44-point total. The lean was right, even if the shape wasn't quite: the Dragons covered comfortably at 14 points, and the actual total of 26 came in well under the projected number, making the under call a good one on a day when tries dried up fast after that first-half burst. The model finished 4 from 16 on the card, but this one, at least, it read correctly on both counts that mattered: winner and total.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 18 | 2 | 20 |
| Knights | 0 | 6 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **77%** | Completion rate | 70% |
| **1,954** | Run metres | 1,586 |
| **699** | Post-contact metres | 495 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 18 |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| **92.6%** | Effective tackle % | 87.5% |
| **18** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **13** | Errors | 16 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 516 | Kick metres | **558** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dragons to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 6.6 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 26 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 44. The model went 4/16 on this match. Dragons covered the 5.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 17 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dragons bucked the trend, Knights historically win 47% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 20' Try — Jaydn Su'A (Dragons) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 36' Try — Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga (Dragons) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 69' Try — Kai Pearce-Paul (Knights) — 20-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.50 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 70.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 7 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dragons here: 70% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dragons sit 25 ELO points clear, 1408 to 1383.

On paper Knights shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Dragons, which says ELO Difference carry the most weight. The margin model has Dragons by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Dragons to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 22-20 in 2026 Round 16.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Dragons 10th against Knights 14th.

Dragons come in fresher, 12 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 22-20 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 10th · Knights 14th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Knights 0% |
| Rest gap | Dragons 12d · Knights 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 15W–23L | 39% |
| Knights | 16W–18L | 47% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Knights hold a 8-point edge: 16W–18L (47%) vs Dragons's 15W–23L (39%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 18.6pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -5.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.0pts |
| 1659.2m | Run Metres | 1868.0m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 362.0 | Tackles | 391.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 22.0 |
| Knights | 2W–3L | 18.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Knights | 22 – 20 | Dragons |
| 2026 | R10 | Dragons | 10 – 44 | Knights |
| 2024 | R5 | Knights | 30 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R27 | Dragons | 12 – 32 | Knights |
| 2022 | R6 | Dragons | 21 – 16 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Liddle, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 16th-ranked middle attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Sharpe, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.91/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.91/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.7/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 0.7/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.55/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 8 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 87.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 23 | 12 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 761m/g | 787m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.1/g | 24/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.2/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.7% | 76.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 466m/g | 560m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.16) +0%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.45) +42% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.43) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 6/11g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 15/14g | 1/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack De Belin | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/7g | 2/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $46.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Toby Couchman | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Kyle McCarthy | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Fletcher Hunt | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | FB | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·3·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyson Gamble | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Brodie Jones | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1408 · Knights 1383 · ELO difference: 25 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1101 (best 1238) | 1210 (best 1367) | Knights +109 |
| Backs | 1025 (best 1148) | 1010 (best 1189) | Dragons +14 |
| Halves | 987 (best 987) | 1276 (best 1276) | Knights +289 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1054 | Dragons +146 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Dragons predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)