AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 30.1 but the actual margin was 51 points. Collingwood led 63–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 51. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
94%
Hawthorn
6%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Collingwood with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 30.1 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+32.2%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+32.2%
Total Points
Over 168.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W W L L | 104.0 |
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 84.4 |
Avg Conceded
86.7
Collingwood
96.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
16.5
Collingwood
-5.7
Hawthorn
Disposals
364.0
Collingwood
362.8
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
52.8
Collingwood
47.8
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1558 vs 1539), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.63).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Collingwood predicted to win by 30 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +30.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.18
Team Effectiveness
+0.30
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.