# Collingwood v Hawthorn — AFL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 107 – 56 Hawthorn

_Collingwood run riot over Hawthorn._

Half time: 63 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 94% / Hawthorn 6% · MCG · Fri, 30 May, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Nick Daicos (15'), Brody Mihocek (17' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Steele Sidebottom (20' ×2), Jamie Elliott (42' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Lipinski (58' ×2), Tim Membrey (90' Tipped ⚡), Bobby Hill (70' Tipped ⚡) · Hawthorn: James Worpel (6' 1st), Jack Ginnivan (9' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Weddle (45'), Jack Gunston (47' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 94% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 30.1 predicted → 51 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 107–56 Hawthorn in AFL Round 12 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighty-two tackles to 38. That's the number that explains how Collingwood beat Hawthorn by 51 points at the MCG, 107 to 56, despite Hawthorn actually winning more of the footy at source.

Hawthorn won clearances 40 to 30 and edged inside 50s 45 to 44, so on paper this should have been a contest. It wasn't, because Collingwood swarmed the contest after the ball came out and made every Hawthorn possession count for less. That tackle count, more than double Hawthorn's, is the story of a team that refused to let the opposition settle, and it shows up everywhere else on the stat sheet.

Disposal efficiency tells the rest of it: Collingwood hit targets at 76.4%, Hawthorn at 71.8%. Small gap on paper, enormous in practice once you're kicking the ball inside your own forward 50 under pressure rather than someone else's. Collingwood also won the intercept battle 62 to 48, which means Hawthorn's clearance advantage kept dying the moment it crossed halfway.

The scoreboard built steadily rather than in one burst. Collingwood led 25-21 at quarter time, a game still very much alive. By half time it was 63-39, and by three-quarter time 93-53. Hawthorn didn't collapse so much as get worn down, conceding a little more each quarter while Collingwood kept finding targets inside 50, 18 marks there to Hawthorn's 10.

That marks inside 50 gap is worth sitting with. Ruck was meant to be a Hawthorn strength coming in, 1085 to Collingwood's 993, and it showed in the hit-out count, 42 to 37. None of it mattered when Collingwood's forward line was taking clean grabs at double Hawthorn's rate. Winning the tap doesn't count for much if the other side owns the airspace forward of centre.

Hawthorn's form coming in had them on minus 5.7 average margin across their last five, conceding just under 97 a game, and that leaky defence rating of 1057 against Collingwood's 1005 turned up exactly as advertised. Collingwood came in averaging 104 points a game and conceding under 87. Both trends showed up almost to the letter, just with more venom than the numbers suggested they might.

Alphr's model had Collingwood at 94% to win, which was never in doubt once the tackle count and intercept numbers piled up the way they did. The margin was the miss: 30.1 points projected, 51 delivered. Collingwood covered the 8.5-point line with room to spare, and the model went 2 from 3 on this one. Picking the winner is the easy part on a night like this. Picking just how far Collingwood would run Hawthorn into the turf was always going to be the harder ask.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 25 | 38 | 30 | 14 | 107 |
| Hawthorn | 21 | 18 | 14 | 3 | 56 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **354** | Disposals | 343 |
| 107 | Contested poss. | **119** |
| 30 | Clearances | **40** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **45** |
| **102** | Marks | 91 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **82** | Tackles | 38 |
| 37 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| **62** | Intercepts | 48 |
| **76.4%** | Disposal eff. | 71.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 30.1 but the actual margin was 51 points. Collingwood led 63–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 51. The model went 2/3 on this match. Collingwood covered the 8.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.63 (edge +32.2%) — model probability 93.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +32.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 30 · Predicted total: 176

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 114 · 68 | 95 · 82 |
| Goal Assists | 5.8/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 88/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.7/g | 16.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 68.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 34 | 28 · 30 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 144/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.2/g | 21.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.6% | 72.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 8 | 25 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.2/g | 14.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 80.6% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.31) +12% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.35) +3% · Key Forwards 3.53/g (lg 3.58) -1%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.31) -8% · Key Forwards 3.23/g (lg 3.58) -10% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.5) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 28 in 11g | 26/10g (2·1·0·3·2·5·1·6·1·5) | 17/13g | 198/125g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' 56' 68' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 18 in 9g | 19/10g (1·2·3·0·3·2·1·4·1·2) | 10/6g | 139/84g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 52' 71' 81' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (1·2·2·0·3·2·1·1·3·1) | 5/5g | 50/43g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·4·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·3) | 14/8g | 47/22g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 8/11g | 102/111g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 39/52g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 3/12g | 49/145g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·2·2·0·0) | 7/6g | 29/24g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 25/50g | 56% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/17g | 97/174g | 22% | — | 🏉 20' 38' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 6/6g | 6/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 38/61g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 3/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 30/78g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 25/50g | 32% | — | 🏉 58' 73' |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/18g | 80/176g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/23g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 39/104g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/67g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 56/158g | 14% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 23 in 8g | 24/10g (1·0·2·2·6·3·4·3·3·0) | 21/16g | 215/114g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 80' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 20 in 11g | 19/10g (2·3·0·1·3·3·2·2·3·0) | 7/6g | 34/28g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 17 in 11g | 17/10g (3·2·1·0·2·1·3·2·3·0) | 3/1g | 25/14g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 11g | 11/10g (2·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·3·1) | 5/10g | 12/72g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 11 in 11g | 9/10g (3·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 7/5g | 47/47g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·2·1·2·1) | 4/2g | 57/43g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 22' 34' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·3) | 5/4g | 25/33g | 56% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 31/74g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 10/23g | 42% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/20g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 11/36g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/24g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 9/47g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 7/21g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 7/44g | 10% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 20/54g | 26% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 10/30g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/23g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/42g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 14/61g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/19g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 28.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 32 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.99 | 64% | 24 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.97 | 49% | 22 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 21.5 | $1.70 | 46% | 27 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 86% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 16 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 18.5 | $1.80 | 53% | 21 ✗ |
| Darcy Moore ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.92 | 91% | 7 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 16 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 25.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.98 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 22.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 26 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 20.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 6 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.97 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 18.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 15 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 17.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)