# GWS GIANTS v Richmond — AFL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 80 – 77 Richmond

_GWS GIANTS roar back to tower over Richmond from 26 down._

Half time: 27 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 94% / Richmond 6% · ENGIE Stadium · Sat, 31 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Tom Green (2' 1st), Cody Angove (31'), Callum Brown (49' ×3), Toby Greene (58' Tipped ⚡), Jake Riccardi (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (88' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (31m 25s)Kieren Briggs (68'), Toby McMullin (74') · Richmond: Tom Lynch (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tim Taranto (14' ×2), Dion Prestia (15'), Jonty Faull (24'), Steely Green (25' ×2), Jacob Hopper (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 94% | Won |
| Richmond | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 51.7 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 80–77 Richmond in AFL Round 12 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had this at Giants by 51.7, on a combined total of 189. What actually happened: Giants by 3, total of 157. Right winner, wrong game entirely.

Ninety-four per cent probability on GWS Giants to win, and that part held up fine. The margin read is where it fell over, and it fell over badly. Richmond led by 28 at three-quarter time, 76-48, and looked to be playing the sort of match that flips the tip over completely. Then the final quarter happened: Giants 32, Richmond 1. That is not a fade, that is a full collapse from a side that had been running the show for three quarters.

Go back to the pre-match ratings and you can see why Richmond had it their way for so long. Richmond's midfield was rated 985 to 968, and it showed: 42 clearances to 29, contested possession 149 to 120, inside 50s 61 to 50. Their defence was rated stronger too, 991 to 951, and for three quarters that gap was the whole story.

But the Giants had two edges going in that never went away, and they're what dragged this back. Forwards were rated 1046 to 941 in their favour, the biggest gap on the sheet, and the ruck edge (1013 to 990) gave them enough of a platform to work with. Add the disposal efficiency, 74.1 per cent to 69.3, and 105 marks to 84, and you've got a side that was doing more with less. Sixty-three tackles to 43 tells you where the pressure came from too. Richmond had more of the ball and more looks inside 50, but the Giants made cleaner use of what they had and refused to let it go once they got hands on it.

The form lines make the 94 per cent probability easy to understand. Giants were averaging 94.5 points and conceding 84.4 across their last five, with an average margin near plus-30. Richmond had been going the other way, averaging 77.6 for and 95.1 against, sitting on a minus-4.7 margin. On paper this was never meant to be close. For three quarters it wasn't, just in the wrong direction.

Combined scoring landed at 157, well shy of the 189 projected, so the shootout the model priced in never turned up. What turned up instead was a low-scoring arm wrestle for three terms and then one almighty burst that rewrote it in twelve minutes.

The model banked the winner and missed the shape of it completely. Fair enough too.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 13 | 14 | 21 | 32 | 80 |
| Richmond | 41 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **373** | Disposals | 358 |
| 120 | Contested poss. | **149** |
| 29 | Clearances | **42** |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| **105** | Marks | 84 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| **63** | Tackles | 43 |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| 65 | Intercepts | **69** |
| **74.1%** | Disposal eff. | 69.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 51.7 but the actual margin was 3 points. The game's 157 points came in 32 points lower than the predicted 189. GWS GIANTS trailed 27–53 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 80–77. The model went 2/3 on this match. GWS GIANTS covered the 46.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.06 (edge +0.1%) — model probability 94.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 52 · Predicted total: 189

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 108 · 70 | 74 · 100 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 77/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 15.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 37 | 21 · 37 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.3/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 14 | 11 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.3/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.58/g (lg 3.58) +28% · Rucks 0.58/g (lg 0.5) +16% · Midfielders 2.67/g (lg 2.39) +12%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.5) +0% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.31) -3% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.46) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 30 in 8g | 38/10g (3·5·4·9·2·2·1·7·1·4) | 19/11g | 81/23g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 98% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 21 in 11g | 20/10g (3·2·3·5·0·2·0·1·1·3) | 25/15g | 137/81g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 13 in 11g | 13/10g (2·1·1·2·0·1·2·1·1·2) | 2/2g | 12/14g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 88' 81' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 1/1g | 9/8g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 9 in 7g | 11/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·3·1·0·3) | 2/5g | 26/22g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 75' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·3) | 1/1g | 23/13g | 50% | — | 🏉 49' 79' 91' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 18/32g | 46% | — | 🏉 2' |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 12/15g | 42/85g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 9/18g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/8g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/20g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/13g | 51/72g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 6/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/37g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Cody Angove | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/12g | 58/57g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/24g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/30g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 30/85g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/8g | 27% | — | 🏉 74' |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 17 in 11g | 15/10g (2·3·2·0·2·0·1·2·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 13 in 9g | 13/10g (0·1·1·1·1·2·3·0·2·2) | 30/17g | 6/5g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 79' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 17/32g | 50% | — | 🏉 14' 37' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 6 in 8g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/5g | 2/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/11g | 1/5g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | 🏉 25' 77' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.80 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 12/35g | 20% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 2/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 31.5 | $1.91 | 47% | 30 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 30.5 | $1.82 | 55% | 28 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash | 29.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 36 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 24.5 | $1.91 | 38% | 20 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 20.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 12 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 25 ✗ |
| Callan Ward | 19.5 | $1.78 | 49% | 1 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.83 | 74% | 19 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 26.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 23 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.84 | 50% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 80% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 20.5 | $1.90 | 37% | 31 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 17.5 | $1.96 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.93 | 60% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)