AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 51.7 but the actual margin was 3 points. The game's 157 points came in 32 points lower than the predicted 189. GWS GIANTS trailed 27–53 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 80–77. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
94%
Richmond
6%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 66-point ELO rating advantage (1508 vs 1442). The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 51.7 points with a combined total of 189.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.1%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W L L L | 94.5 |
Richmond | W W L L L | 77.6 |
Avg Conceded
84.4
GWS GIANTS
95.1
Richmond
Avg Margin
29.4
GWS GIANTS
-4.7
Richmond
Disposals
358.6
GWS GIANTS
347.6
Richmond
Inside 50s
47.1
GWS GIANTS
52.3
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 52 points
Predicted total: 189 · Line: +51.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.15
Team Effectiveness
+0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.