AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 94% probability. The predicted margin of 29.4 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 162 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 198. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
94%
Essendon
6%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Scoring Form. Brisbane Lions carry a 276-point ELO rating advantage (1716 vs 1440). The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 29.4 points with a combined total of 198.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 87.2 |
Essendon | WWWLL | 63.8 |
Avg Conceded
70.4
Brisbane Lions
83.4
Essendon
Avg Margin
16.8
Brisbane Lions
-19.6
Essendon
Disposals
378.4
Brisbane Lions
397.6
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 198 · Line: +29.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.30
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.