AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 94% probability. The predicted margin of 29.4 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 162 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 198. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
94%
Essendon
6%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. Essendon are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Essendon carry a 36-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1487). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 29.4 points with a combined total of 198.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 108.8 |
Essendon | W L L L L | 102.1 |
Avg Conceded
83.1
Brisbane Lions
84.9
Essendon
Avg Margin
22.5
Brisbane Lions
8.7
Essendon
Disposals
359.6
Brisbane Lions
331.7
Essendon
Inside 50s
56.9
Brisbane Lions
42.8
Essendon
ELO–Market Disagreement
Essendon hold the ELO advantage (1523 vs 1487), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.06).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 198 · Line: +29.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.30
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.