# Brisbane Lions v Essendon — AFL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 90 – 72 Essendon

_Brisbane Lions run down Essendon._

Half time: 51 – 25 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 94% / Essendon 6% · Gabba · Thu, 29 May, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jaspa Fletcher (9'), Cam Rayner (10' Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (13' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilmot (21'), Kai Lohmann (29' ×3), Logan Morris (59' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Gardiner (75'), Eric Hipwood (89' Tipped ⚡), Noah Answerth (85') · Essendon: Nic Martin (6' ×2), Peter Wright (42' Tipped ⚡), Sam Durham (49'), Jye Caldwell (63'), Will Setterfield (81'), Nate Caddy (82' Tipped ⚡), Jade Gresham (61'), Todd Goldstein (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 94% | Won |
| Essendon | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.4 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 90–72 Essendon in AFL Round 12 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon actually won the two stats that are supposed to matter most in the middle of the ground. They won the hit-out count 47 to 33 and picked up more clearances too, 37 to 31. On paper that's a side controlling the source of the footy. On the scoreboard it counted for almost nothing, because Brisbane finished with 90 points to Essendon's 72.

The gap opens up once you look at what each side did after the ball came out of the middle. Essendon had it more often at the coalface but did far less with it once they got it, finishing with 358 disposals to Brisbane's 398 and getting beaten heavily in the air, 77 marks to 136. Brisbane also went inside 50 sixty-two times to Essendon's 42, a gap of twenty entries that no amount of clearance work was going to make up. Essendon were competitive in contested possession too, 135 to 131, which only sharpens the point: they had the ball enough, they just couldn't turn it into scoreboard pressure.

Brisbane were in front from the opening term and never really looked like giving it up. Quarter time read 39-7, which on its own told most of the story. Essendon clawed some of it back, cutting the margin to 26 at half time (51-25) and to 12 by the last change (70-58), suggesting some genuine fight through the middle two quarters. But Brisbane matched them again after that, running out the game 90-72.

The positional ratings coming in had Essendon as the stronger side almost everywhere. Better midfield (1076 to 955), better forward line (1073 to 1016), and a clearer edge in defence (1048 to 930). Brisbane's only advantage was in the ruck, 1018 to 985, which sits oddly given Essendon actually won the hit-out count comfortably on the day. Ratings on paper and a side's output on the day are two different conversations, and this was the proof of it.

Recent form pointed the other way entirely. Brisbane came in averaging 108.8 points across their last five games with a scoring margin near 22.5, against Essendon's 102.1 and 8.7. Brisbane's average of 56.9 inside 50s a game compared with Essendon's 42.8 lines up almost exactly with what played out at the Gabba, 62 to 42. Form carried more weight here than the underlying team ratings suggested it would.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 39 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 90 |
| Essendon | 7 | 18 | 33 | 14 | 72 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **398** | Disposals | 358 |
| 131 | Contested poss. | **135** |
| 31 | Clearances | **37** |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| **136** | Marks | 77 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| **55** | Tackles | 51 |
| 33 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 57 |
| **75.7%** | Disposal eff. | 75.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 94% probability. The predicted margin of 29.4 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 162 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 198. The model went 2/3 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 44.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.06 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 93.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -44.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 29 · Predicted total: 198

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 100 · 81 | 58 · 84 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 82/g | 98/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.7/g | 14.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.4/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.4% | 66.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 25 | 39 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 161/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.5/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 19 | 11 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.2/g | 10.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.2% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.31) +15% · Forwards 5.05/g (lg 4.47) +13% · Key Forwards 3.73/g (lg 3.58) +4%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.39/g (lg 4.47) -2% · Key Forwards 3.28/g (lg 3.58) -8% · Midfielders 2.13/g (lg 2.39) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 20 in 11g | 19/10g (2·1·1·5·2·4·0·3·1·0) | 17/10g | 127/94g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 89' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 18 in 10g | 18/10g (1·3·1·2·4·0·2·0·3·2) | 1/1g | 18/12g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' 70' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 18 in 11g | 14/10g (1·1·3·3·0·3·0·1·1·1) | 5/7g | 68/76g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 17 in 11g | 16/10g (3·0·1·2·0·1·3·1·1·4) | 1/8g | 32/57g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·1·3·0·0·0·3·1·0·3) | 18/11g | 162/84g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 10 in 11g | 10/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·0·3·0·2) | 4/7g | 71/75g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·4·0) | 1/10g | 9/85g | 16% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 64/96g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 41/86g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 13/15g | 36/76g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/20g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/13g | 130/146g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 9/25g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 4/34g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/14g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/31g | 4% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/110g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 0 in 6g | 9/10g (2·2·1·4·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 16/19g | 50% | — | 🏉 29' 85' 77' |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/38g | 0% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 23/106g | 2% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (0·0·2·2·0·2·2·3·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·3·1·1·1) | 4/4g | 1/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 11 in 6g | 15/10g (2·2·0·0·6·2·0·0·1·2) | 17/7g | 6/3g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 48% | — | 🏉 6' 71' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (2·4·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 6/13g | 4/10g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/7g | 6/5g | 54% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 3 in 1g | 3/1g (3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 2/7g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/16g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 3/11g | 10% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 29.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 26 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 27.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 23 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 30 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 25.5 | $1.78 | 58% | 20 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 25.5 | $1.97 | 56% | 41 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 21 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 20.5 | $1.94 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.83 | 57% | 25 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 28 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Nic Martin | 24.5 | $1.86 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 23.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 30 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 8 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 19.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 26 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 19.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)