AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 62% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Fremantle by 13.0 vs the actual margin of 11 points. The game's 139 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 158. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
38%
Fremantle
62%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Gold Coast SUNS are far from out of this at 38%. Gold Coast SUNS are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Fremantle counter with Forward Line ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 112-point ELO rating advantage (1660 vs 1549). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 13.0 points with a combined total of 158.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @3.20
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.1%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.1%
Total Points
Over 157.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWWL | 91.2 |
Fremantle | WWWLL | 79.2 |
Avg Conceded
79.6
Gold Coast SUNS
74.0
Fremantle
Avg Margin
11.6
Gold Coast SUNS
5.2
Fremantle
Disposals
350.0
Gold Coast SUNS
340.2
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Fremantle predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 158 · Line: -13.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.13
Team Effectiveness
-0.23
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.