# Gold Coast SUNS v Fremantle — AFL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 64 – 75 Fremantle

_Fremantle scrape past Gold Coast SUNS in a tight one._

Half time: 35 – 41 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 38% / Fremantle 62% · People First Stadium · Sat, 31 May, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Jed Walter (9' Tipped ⚡), Bodhi Uwland (10'), Ben Long (42' Tipped ⚡), Leo Lombard (51'), Ben King (54' Tipped ⚡), Sam Flanders (88' ×3) · Fremantle: Patrick Voss (4' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Corey Wagner (13'), Sam Switkowski (24'), Shai Bolton (57' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Andrew Brayshaw (85'), Jye Amiss (94' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 62% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.0 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 64–75 Fremantle in AFL Round 12 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle beat Gold Coast SUNS 75-64 at People First Stadium, an 11-point margin that undersells how one-sided this actually was for large stretches. At quarter time, Fremantle led by 20, 33-13. The final margin was barely half that. Something changed after the first term, and the SUNS deserve credit for making it a contest at all.

That first quarter was the story Fremantle wanted to tell all day. They led 33-13 and looked capable of putting the game away early. Instead the SUNS won the second term 22-8, cutting the deficit to six at half time, 35-41. Fremantle responded in the third, taking that quarter 21-14 to push the margin back out to 13 at the last change, 49-62. The SUNS then won the final term 15-13, but it was too little, too late, and the margin closed by only two points before the siren.

The numbers explain how Fremantle held on despite getting outplayed at the source.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 13 | 22 | 14 | 15 | 64 |
| Fremantle | 33 | 8 | 21 | 13 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **351** | Disposals | 339 |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 144 |
| **46** | Clearances | 39 |
| 52 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| **57** | Marks | 53 |
| **9** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 83 | Tackles | **86** |
| **55** | Hit-outs | 50 |
| 75 | Intercepts | 75 |
| 66.4% | Disposal eff. | **72.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 62% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 13.0 vs the actual margin of 11 points. The game's 139 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 158. The model went 2/3 on this match. Fremantle covered the 16.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $3.20 (edge +31.1%) — model probability 62.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 157.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 13 · Predicted total: 158

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 118 · 71 | 92 · 90 |
| Goal Assists | 5.7/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 81/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.9/g | 14.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.6/g | 7.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 67.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 28 | 31 · 31 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 21/g | 28.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 70.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 13 | 13 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.4/g | 9.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.7% | 82.4% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.39) +3% · Key Forwards 3.54/g (lg 3.58) -1% · Forwards 4.14/g (lg 4.47) -7%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.61/g (lg 1.31) +23% · Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.5) +0% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.39) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 31 in 10g | 31/10g (6·4·2·5·1·5·1·3·2·2) | 4/3g | 90/41g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 22 in 9g | 25/10g (3·4·1·2·3·3·1·1·4·3) | 1/6g | 12/18g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (2·3·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 3/10g | 26/84g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·1·3·1·1·3·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 10/7g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·4·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 13/18g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·2) | 2/5g | 64/57g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 7 in 9g | 9/10g (2·1·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/2g | 11/32g | 42% | — | 🏉 88' 84' 87' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 11/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/7g | 34/51g | 38% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 16/35g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 27% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 10/10g | 41/94g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 24/45g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 11/66g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 16/41g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/49g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/47g | 4% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 23 in 11g | 22/10g (4·3·3·6·1·2·0·2·1·0) | 4/3g | 0/1g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 16 in 11g | 16/10g (1·4·1·0·3·2·2·0·2·1) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 94' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 16 in 11g | 14/10g (0·1·3·3·0·2·0·1·3·1) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 68% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 14 in 11g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·4) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (0·0·2·2·3·1·0·1·3·1) | 11/8g | 14/12g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' 89' 74' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 7 in 7g | 11/10g (0·2·2·1·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.54 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 31' 96' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/9g | 32% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/4g | 2/2g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 4/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nat Fyfe | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/8g | 5/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 5% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.80 | 51% | 39 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 24 ✓ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $1.81 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 22.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.81 | 74% | 27 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.72 | 77% | 12 ✓ |
| Sam Clohesy | 17.5 | $1.73 | 55% | 18 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 16.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 15 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 28.5 | $1.86 | 56% | 30 ✗ |
| Caleb Serong | 28.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 27 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 30 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.80 | 51% | 18 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 19.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.96 | 53% | 18 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.96 | 92% | 19 ✗ |
| Jeremy Sharp | 15.5 | $1.82 | 62% | 4 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)