# West Coast Eagles v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 73 – 116 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats pounce on West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 44 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 4% / Geelong Cats 96% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 01 June, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Oscar Allen (15' ×4), Jack Williams (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Noah Long (42'), Harley Reid (50'), Tim Kelly (55'), Liam Ryan (79' Tipped ⚡), Elijah Hewett (65') · Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (7' ×5 1st Tipped 🎯), Tyson Stengle (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Gryan Miers (22' ×2), Brad Close (35'), Oliver Henry (39' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (53' Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (71' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (70' Tipped ⚡), Rhys Stanley (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 96% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 57.6 predicted → 43 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 73–116 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 12 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats had this one in hand from the opening term and never let it go. Up 29-12 at quarter time, the margin sat at 17, and while West Coast Eagles clawed back into some sort of contest through the middle of the game, they never got the margin under 11 points. Then the final quarter arrived and turned a contest into a rout: Geelong Cats piled on 47 points to West Coast's 15, turning an 11-point game at the last change into a 43-point final margin, 116-73.

That third-quarter passage tells the real story. At half time it was 55-44, an 11-point gap. At three-quarter time it was 69-58, still 11. West Coast had stopped the bleeding but couldn't find a way to close it, and Geelong Cats had them exactly where they wanted, within touch but never within reach. Then the last term hit and the wheels came off for the home side.

The stat sheet backs up why. Geelong Cats won contested possession 123 to 114 and used it far better going forward, racking up 59 inside 50s to West Coast's 43. Once it got there, Geelong Cats were clinical: 17 marks inside 50 against West Coast's 9, more than double the return for a similar number of entries relative to their opponent. That's the difference between a forward line taking shots and a forward line taking chances.

Defensively, Geelong Cats' 1059 rating against West Coast's 934 pre-match wasn't just a number on paper. It showed up in 63 intercepts to 54 and 67 tackles to 47, a defence that pressured the ball and then made sure it didn't come back the other way.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 12 | 32 | 14 | 15 | 73 |
| Geelong Cats | 29 | 26 | 14 | 47 | 116 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **345** |
| 114 | Contested poss. | **123** |
| **38** | Clearances | 36 |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **59** |
| 78 | Marks | **111** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| 47 | Tackles | **67** |
| **40** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| 54 | Intercepts | **63** |
| 73.9% | Disposal eff. | **74.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 96% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 57.6 but the actual margin was 43 points. The game's 189 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 156. Geelong Cats led 44–55 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 44.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.07 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 95.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 58 · Predicted total: 156

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Geelong Cats | 122 – 76 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R24 | Geelong Cats | 168 – 75 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R5 | Geelong Cats | 136 – 89 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R23 | Geelong Cats | 131 – 46 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R14 | West Coast Eagles | 63 – 81 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 84 · 119 | 111 · 83 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.5/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 9.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 66.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 44 | 45 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.6/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 10 | 7 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.5/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.1% | 79.6% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.8/g (lg 3.57) +6% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Forwards 4.39/g (lg 4.47) -2%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.84/g (lg 0.5) +68% · Midfielders 3.56/g (lg 2.39) +49% · Key Forwards 4.68/g (lg 3.57) +31%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·3·1·2·0·3·0·0·2·0) | 6/5g | 69/60g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1) | 2/1g | 10/16g | 42% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 8 in 6g | 10/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·0·3·1·1) | 0/1g | 16/17g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 80' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 8/5g | 76/53g | 72% | — | 🏉 15' 37' 45' 77' |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 9/14g | 27% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 4/11g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/9g | 13/30g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 1/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 4/14g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/16g | 31% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/14g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/75g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/19g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 19/55g | 18% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/60g | 2% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 33 in 11g | 29/10g (1·1·1·4·2·4·1·2·7·6) | 29/13g | 14/9g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.38 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 81' 88' 91' 93' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 18 in 11g | 16/10g (2·1·0·2·2·2·2·2·2·1) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 13 in 11g | 12/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·5) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 13 in 11g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·0·1·0·2·1·2) | 10/5g | 5/3g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 72' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 11 in 8g | 15/10g (3·1·1·0·3·0·2·2·1·2) | 1/1g | 2/1g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 10 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 7/4g | 5/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 73' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/6g | 5/8g | 68% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 1/11g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 4/10g | 42% | — | 🏉 22' 31' |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 2/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/10g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Maric | 22.5 | $1.84 | 62% | 15 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 21.5 | $1.89 | 55% | 29 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.96 | 48% | 19 ✗ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 9 ✓ |
| Elijah Hewett | 15.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 20 ✗ |
| Tom Cole | 14.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 24 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 30.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 38 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 25.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 27 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers | 21.5 | $1.85 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 20.5 | $1.84 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 19.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 12 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 18.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 13 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 18.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | $1.96 | 47% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)