# AFL Round 12 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 12 of the 2025 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 12 at a glance
- 7 matches · 16W–5L on 21 settled picks (76% strike rate) · best value +34.3% edge

## Round 12 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood v Hawthorn | Collingwood @ $1.63 | Collingwood 94% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Essendon | Brisbane Lions @ $1.06 | Brisbane Lions 94% | WON |
| Melbourne v St Kilda | St Kilda @ $2.75 | St Kilda 71% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $3.20 | Fremantle 62% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.58 | Adelaide Crows 52% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Richmond | GWS GIANTS @ $1.06 | GWS GIANTS 94% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.07 | Geelong Cats 96% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Collingwood v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 93.6% / Hawthorn 6.4%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.63 (edge +32.2%) — model probability 93.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +32.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 30 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r12-collingwood-v-hawthorn

### Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 93.8% / Essendon 6.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.06 (edge -50.0%) — model probability 93.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -44.5 @ $1.91 (edge -50.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 29 · Predicted total: 198
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r12-brisbane-lions-v-essendon

### Melbourne v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · TIO Traeger Park · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 29.3% / St Kilda 70.7%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.75 (edge +34.3%) — model probability 70.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +34.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 14 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r12-melbourne-v-st-kilda

### Gold Coast SUNS v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 37.6% / Fremantle 62.4%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $3.20 (edge +31.1%) — model probability 62.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 157.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 13 · Predicted total: 158
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r12-gold-coast-suns-v-fremantle

### Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 47.9% / Adelaide Crows 52.1%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.58 (edge -11.2%) — model probability 52.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 11 · Predicted total: 148
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r12-sydney-swans-v-adelaide-crows

### GWS GIANTS v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 94.5% / Richmond 5.5%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.06 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 94.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 52 · Predicted total: 189
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r12-gws-giants-v-richmond

### West Coast Eagles v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 4.2% / Geelong Cats 95.8%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.07 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 95.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 58 · Predicted total: 156
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r12-west-coast-eagles-v-geelong-cats

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/11 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/11.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/13 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/13.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/12
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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC