AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 90 points. The game's 172 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 148. Adelaide Crows led 10–75 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 90. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
48%
Adelaide Crows
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Sydney Swans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 11.4 points with a combined total of 148.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.58
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.2%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.2%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 73.3 |
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 81.3 |
Avg Conceded
84.1
Sydney Swans
92.1
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-7.8
Sydney Swans
-7.9
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
379.2
Sydney Swans
341.0
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
47.3
Sydney Swans
47.9
Adelaide Crows
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sydney Swans hold the ELO advantage (1505 vs 1486), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.58).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 148 · Line: -11.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.32
Team Effectiveness
-0.65
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.