# Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 41 – 131 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows swoop on Sydney Swans._

Half time: 10 – 75 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 48% / Adelaide Crows 52% · SCG · Sat, 31 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Hayden McLean (3' ×2 1st), Will Hayward (71' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Heeney (78' Tipped ⚡), Braeden Campbell (84') · Adelaide Crows: Izak Rankine (6' Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (12' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Brodie Smith (21'), Wayne Milera (28'), Riley Thilthorpe (39' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Luke Pedlar (55'), Sam Berry (58'), Isaac Cumming (62' ×2), Taylor Walker (79' Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (88'), Jordan Dawson (92'), Ben Keays (98' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 52% | Won |
| Sydney Swans | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 90 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 41–131 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 12 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty points. That’s what Adelaide Crows put on Sydney Swans in the second quarter alone, 42 to 2, turning an eight-point margin into a rout that had basically finished the contest by half time. Whatever the scoreboard read after that, 10-75, was academic.

Final score: Sydney Swans 41, Adelaide Crows 131. A 90-point beating at the SCG, and the shape of it was set well before three-quarter time, when Adelaide already led 112-37.

The strange part is Sydney actually won the fight for the ball at source. They had 159 contested possessions to 148 and ran away with clearances, 55 to 42. On paper that should mean territory and control. It didn't. Adelaide turned every other number in their favour: 348 disposals to 322, 66.5% efficiency to 59.6%, and 70 inside 50s to Sydney's 45. Winning the clearance count means nothing if the other side is doing more with the ball once it gets loose, and that's exactly what happened.

Marks tell the same story from a different angle. Adelaide took 83 to Sydney's 61, and while both sides managed just 5 marks inside 50 apiece, Adelaide's overall control of the air let them dictate tempo. Add 80 intercepts to Sydney's 69 and you've got a side that took the ball off Sydney whenever it mattered and made it count with clean hands.

Going in, the ratings had Adelaide's midfield (991) and ruck (990) rated above Sydney's (959 and 950), and Sydney's forward line rated the higher unit, 1052 to 979. That forward advantage never showed up. A line that was supposed to be Sydney's strength managed just 41 points and 5 marks inside 50, while Adelaide's less fancied forward set up shop inside 50 seventy times and made most of them stick.

Recent form had both sides coming in on the back foot, Sydney averaging a -7.75 margin over their last five, Adelaide at -7.94. Neither team's trend suggested a blowout was coming, and Sydney's normal disposal count, 379 a game recently, actually dropped below Adelaide's season figure of 341 on the day. Whatever Sydney usually does with the ball, they didn't do it here.

Alphr's model called Adelaide as 52% favourites and had them winning by 11.4 on a combined total of 148. The winner was right. The margin wasn't remotely close, with the actual gap sitting at 90 and the total finishing 24 points over the projection at 172. Three quarters of a game with only two Sydney points to show for it will do that to a model's maths.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 8 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 41 |
| Adelaide Crows | 33 | 42 | 37 | 19 | 131 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Disposals | **348** |
| **159** | Contested poss. | 148 |
| **55** | Clearances | 42 |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **70** |
| 61 | Marks | **83** |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 83 | Tackles | **84** |
| 40 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| 69 | Intercepts | **80** |
| 59.6% | Disposal eff. | **66.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 90 points. The game's 172 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 148. Adelaide Crows led 10–75 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 90. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.58 (edge -11.2%) — model probability 52.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 11 · Predicted total: 148

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Sydney Swans | 71 – 87 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R24 | Sydney Swans | 121 – 90 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R14 | Adelaide Crows | 67 – 109 | Sydney Swans |
| 2023 | R23 | Adelaide Crows | 73 – 74 | Sydney Swans |
| 2022 | R19 | Sydney Swans | 118 – 85 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 90 | 123 · 79 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.6/g | 19.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.1/g | 10.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 69.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 34 | 39 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 24.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.8% | 69.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 4 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.1/g | 10.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76% | 79.7% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.44/g (lg 1.31) +10% · Midfielders 2.44/g (lg 2.39) +2% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.46) -4%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.5) +22% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.46) -2% · Midfielders 2.34/g (lg 2.39) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (1·1·4·1·2·0·1·2·1·1) | 8/8g | 91/75g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 13 in 11g | 13/10g (2·0·0·2·2·1·1·0·2·3) | 20/11g | 121/95g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (2·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 5/5g | 43/47g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 12 in 8g | 13/10g (1·0·2·1·3·2·1·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 38/34g | 80% | — | 🏉 3' 82' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (2·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 10/38g | 38% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 22/59g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 37% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 9/19g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 21/54g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/10g | 4/23g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 17/44g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 17/61g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 18/113g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/19g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Adams | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/13g | 2/14g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Mitchell | DEF | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 6/113g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/44g | 4% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 26 in 10g | 26/10g (4·3·2·3·4·0·2·3·4·1) | 4/5g | 1/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 86' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 25 in 11g | 22/10g (3·3·5·1·1·3·1·3·0·2) | 3/3g | 3/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 43' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 18 in 10g | 18/10g (1·1·4·4·2·2·2·1·0·1) | 33/13g | 25/8g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 17 in 11g | 16/10g (4·2·1·3·1·0·2·2·0·1) | 5/7g | 3/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 98' 72' 91' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 17 in 8g | 20/10g (2·1·2·4·0·1·2·2·1·5) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 60' 94' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 14 in 11g | 12/10g (2·0·0·2·1·1·2·2·1·1) | 9/5g | 8/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 1/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·2) | 3/4g | 14/27g | 32% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 2/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 62' 76' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 3/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 99% | 10 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 23 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 21 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 23.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 71% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 11 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 11 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 67% | 20 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 16.5 | $1.96 | 52% | 23 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.75 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo | 22.5 | $1.79 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 18 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 21 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 20.5 | $1.78 | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera | 18.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 16.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)