# Melbourne v St Kilda — AFL Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 63 – 91 St Kilda

_St Kilda see off Melbourne._

Half time: 45 – 58 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 29% / St Kilda 71% · TIO Traeger Park · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Jake Melksham (32'), Christian Petracca (43' ×2), Kade Chandler (46'), Aidan Johnson (62'), Harry Petty (83') · St Kilda: Max Hall (12' ×2 1st), Isaac Keeler (14' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Dan Butler (18' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Tobie Travaglia (25'), Hunter Clark (37'), Bradley Hill (77'), Mitch Owens (68' Tipped ⚡), Jack Higgins (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 71% | Won |
| Melbourne | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.5 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Melbourne 63–91 St Kilda in AFL Round 12 at TIO Traeger Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen points. That's what separated these two at half-time, Melbourne trailing St Kilda 45-58 after clawing back from a 24-point hole at quarter time. For a stretch there it looked like a contest. It wasn't, not by the end.

St Kilda had raced out to 38-14 in the first term before Melbourne found some rhythm and outscored them through the second quarter to get back within striking distance. That's as close as it got. St Kilda answered in the third, stretching it to 72-55 by the three-quarter-time siren, then took over in the last quarter to close it out 91-63. A 13-point gap became 28 by the final siren, and the game went the way the pre-match numbers said it should.

The disposal count tells you where this was decided. St Kilda ran up 390 to Melbourne's 299, and did it more efficiently too, hitting targets at 75.9% against Melbourne's 69.0%. Marks were even more lopsided: 140 to 100. When a side is taking that many more marks, it's controlling territory and tempo without needing to fight for it.

Oddly enough, Melbourne won plenty of the ledger that usually decides these things. More clearances, 32 to 30. More inside 50s, comfortably, 57 to 40. More hit-outs, 32 to 25. More tackles, 56 to 52. More intercepts, 57 to 51.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 14 | 31 | 10 | 8 | 63 |
| St Kilda | 38 | 20 | 14 | 19 | 91 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 299 | Disposals | **390** |
| **117** | Contested poss. | 116 |
| **32** | Clearances | 30 |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| 100 | Marks | **140** |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **56** | Tackles | 52 |
| **32** | Hit-outs | 25 |
| **57** | Intercepts | 51 |
| 69.0% | Disposal eff. | **75.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.5 but the actual margin was 28 points. St Kilda led 45–58 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.75 (edge +34.3%) — model probability 70.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +34.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 14 · Predicted total: 163

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 65 · 94 | 82 · 97 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 100/g | 71/g |
| Inside 50s | 21/g | 12.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.7/g | 7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 68.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 34 | 29 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 169/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.4/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 69.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 19 | 21 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 13.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.3% | 76.3% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.39) +2% · Key Forwards 3.36/g (lg 3.57) -6% · Forwards 4.03/g (lg 4.46) -10%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.73/g (lg 0.5) +46% · Defenders 1.41/g (lg 1.3) +8% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.39) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIO Traeger Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 18 in 8g | 20/10g (0·2·0·2·5·1·1·2·2·5) | 6/5g | 7/4g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 11 in 11g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 20/13g | 9/8g | 70% | — | 🏉 43' 57' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·1·0·0·2·2·2·0·1·2) | 10/7g | 6/5g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 69% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 10 in 11g | 10/10g (3·1·0·0·2·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 56% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 9 in 7g | 11/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·4·3) | 11/12g | 4/5g | 66% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·4·2·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 2/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 3/4g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 1/4g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 5 in 7g | 10/10g (0·4·1·1·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 49% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/10g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Johnson | RUC | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/15g | 5/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 2/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Laurie | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 28 in 11g | 26/10g (4·3·3·2·3·3·1·2·5·0) | 8/6g | 0/0g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 87' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 17 in 9g | 17/10g (0·2·1·3·0·1·4·2·1·3) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (2·4·2·0·3·0·3·0·0·2) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 12 in 9g | 14/10g (2·2·2·3·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 8/6g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 62% | — | 🏉 12' 27' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/12g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 23' 82' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 1/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 8/12g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | no games | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·2·1·0·2·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 52' 56' 88' |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.79 | 66% | 22 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver | 25.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 16 ✓ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 17 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.79 | 73% | 14 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Christian Salem | 22.5 | $1.94 | 60% | 14 ✓ |
| Max Gawn ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 22 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 12 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 28.5 | $1.85 | 59% | 29 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair | 28.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 25 ✓ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.94 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.83 | 46% | 26 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 82% | 1 ✓ |
| Hunter Clark | 19.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 20 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 16.5 | $1.90 | 35% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)