# Super League Round 23 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI Super League predictions for Round 23 of the 2026 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 23 at a glance
- 7 matches · 16 picks pending

## Round 23 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos v Leigh Leopards | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 64% | — |
| Hull KR v Catalans Dragons | Hull KR | Hull KR 61% | — |
| Warrington Wolves v York Knights | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 69% | — |
| Hull FC v Castleford Tigers | Hull FC | Hull FC 56% | — |
| Wakefield Trinity v St Helens | — | Wakefield Trinity 50% | — |
| Bradford Bulls v Wigan Warriors | — | Bradford Bulls 50% | — |
| Toulouse Olympique v Huddersfield Giants | — | Toulouse Olympique 50% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Leeds Rhinos v Leigh Leopards
Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · AMT Headingley Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Leeds Rhinos 63.5% / Leigh Leopards 36.5%
- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 63.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards +12.5 — model probability 63.5%
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 63.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 4 · Predicted total: 38
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Brodie Croft — model probability 73.9%
- Josh Charnley — model probability 53.1%
- Jake Connor — model probability 29.0%
- David Armstrong — model probability 46.6%
- James Mcdonnell — model probability 42.7%
- Umyla Hanley — model probability 27.2%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Brodie Croft — model probability 28.2%
- Josh Charnley — model probability 21.7%
- David Armstrong — model probability 14.7%
- James Mcdonnell — model probability 11.7%
- Harry Newman — model probability 8.2%
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r23-leeds-rhinos-v-leigh-leopards

### Hull KR v Catalans Dragons
Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · Sewell Group Craven Park · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Hull KR 61.2% / Catalans Dragons 38.8%
- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 61.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +24.5 — model probability 61.2%
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 61.2%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 9 · Predicted total: 43
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Zac Lipowicz — model probability 37.9%
- Toby Sexton — model probability 35.4%
- Rhyse Martin — model probability 42.2%
- Tyrone May — model probability 39.4%
- Jai Whitbread — model probability 40.8%
- Nick Cotric — model probability 36.1%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Zac Lipowicz — model probability 8.3%
- Toby Sexton — model probability 7.6%
- Nick Cotric — model probability 7.8%
- Jai Whitbread — model probability 7.7%
- Joe Burgess — model probability 7.4%
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r23-hull-kr-v-catalans-dragons

### Warrington Wolves v York Knights
Fri, 14 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Warrington Wolves 69.3% / York Knights 30.8%
- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 69.3%
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +18.5 — model probability 69.3%
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 69.3%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 7 · Predicted total: 45
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Cody Hunter — model probability 61.5%
- Denive Balmforth — model probability 37.9%
- Nikau Williams — model probability 37.0%
- Ewan Irwin — model probability 33.6%
- Jon Bennison — model probability 48.9%
- Mark Nofoaluma — model probability 48.9%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Cody Hunter — model probability 17.1%
- Jon Bennison — model probability 12.0%
- Mark Nofoaluma — model probability 12.0%
- Albert Hopoate — model probability 10.2%
- Matthew Ashton — model probability 12.2%
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r23-warrington-wolves-v-york-knights

### Hull FC v Castleford Tigers
Sat, 15 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · MKM Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Hull FC 55.8% / Castleford Tigers 44.2%
- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 55.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +15.5 — model probability 55.8%
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 55.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 2 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r23-hull-fc-v-castleford-tigers

### Wakefield Trinity v St Helens
Sun, 16 Aug, 02:30 am AEST · Venue: The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Wakefield Trinity 50.0% / St Helens 50.0%

### Bradford Bulls v Wigan Warriors
Sun, 16 Aug, 03:30 am AEST · Venue: Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Bradford Bulls 50.0% / Wigan Warriors 50.0%

### Toulouse Olympique v Huddersfield Giants
Sun, 16 Aug, 05:00 am AEST · Venue: Stade Ernest Wallon · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Toulouse Olympique 50.0% / Huddersfield Giants 50.0%

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 69.9% | 107/153 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.8% | 93/153 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 28.8% | 44/153 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.8% | 93/153 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 31.2% | 129/414 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 6.9% | 18/260 |

## More Super League predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/round/22 (markdown: /super-league/round/22.md)
- All Super League rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/super-league (markdown: /super-league.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-13 10:30 UTC (latest tip update)