# Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 6 – 33 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity put Wigan Warriors to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 71% / Wakefield Trinity 29% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sun, 27 Sept, 02:30 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Brad O'Neill (17' 1st) · Wakefield Trinity: Tom Johnstone (29'), Tom Johnstone (45'), Jack Sinfield (49'), Corey Hall (52'), Ky Rodwell (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 71% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Sept 2026, 09:51 pm_

Wigan Warriors 6–33 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Semi Finals at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve errors to three. That completion gap is the whole story of Wakefield Trinity's 33-6 demolition of Wigan Warriors at The Brick Community Stadium, and everything else in the box score just confirms it.

Wigan led first, and briefly looked like the side the model backed. Brad O'Neill crossed in the 17th minute for the only home try, Adam Keighran's conversion made it 6-0, and for a dozen minutes the home crowd had reason to believe the pre-match numbers, Wigan installed at 71% and expected to win by 8.6. Then Tom Johnstone scored in the 29th, Max Jowitt levelled with the conversion two minutes later, and a penalty goal on 33 minutes had Wakefield Trinity up 8-6 at the break. Wigan never scored again.

The second half was one-way traffic. Johnstone's second try in the 45th minute opened it up, Jack Sinfield and Corey Hall followed inside three minutes of each other either side of the hour, and Ky Rodwell's try on 58 made it 28-6 before Jowitt had even finished with the boot. A Mason Lino drop goal and a late Jowitt penalty rounded it out at 33-6. Six tries to one, five of them arriving in a 29-minute second-half spell Wigan had no answer for.

The territory and possession numbers, 59% to 41% both ways, explain why Wigan barely got a look in, but it's the handling stats that really tell you how one-sided it was. Wakefield Trinity completed at 95%, Wigan at 78%, and that gulf in composure with the ball showed up everywhere else: 1,525 running metres to 1,036, eight line breaks to five, 47 tackle busts to 37. Wigan's defence, missing 47 tackles compared to Wakefield's 37, cracked under that kind of pressure applied over and over.

None of it squares with what walked in the door. Wigan's halves were rated 989 to Wakefield's 600, the biggest positional gap on the sheet, and their backs held a healthy edge too. Wakefield's forward pack, rated 860 to 809, was supposed to be the closest thing to parity. Instead it was the platform for everything, feeding a Wakefield attack that busted the line and broke tackles at a rate Wigan's much-fancied spine never got to influence.

Form lines pointed the other way as well. Wigan arrived on a five-game winning streak averaging 39.2 points a game and conceding just 7.6. Wakefield had lost their opening game of the run before winning four straight, averaging only 22 points scored and 16 conceded. On the day, none of that history mattered. Wigan managed one try, their defensive numbers from recent weeks nowhere to be seen, while Wakefield produced their best attacking performance of the sample by some distance.

Alphr's model had Wigan winning by 8.6 in a 49-point game. The total call landed, Wakefield Trinity and Wigan combining for 39, but the head-to-head and the margin both missed badly, going down as a 2-from-4 result on this one. Wakefield Trinity covered the 13.5-point line with room to spare, and by full time the only question left was how comfortably. That completion rate answered it early.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 41% | Possession | **59%** |
| 41% | Territory | **59%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | **95%** |
| 1,036 | Run metres | **1,525** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 37 | Tackle busts | **47** |
| 8 | Offloads | **10** |
| **89.1%** | Tackle efficiency | 87.5% |
| 47 | Missed tackles | **37** |
| 12 | Errors | **3** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **7.2** | Metres per run | 6.9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1/1 | Conversions | 4/5 |
| 0/0 | Penalty Goals | 2/2 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 12 | Errors | 3 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 71% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 27 points. Wakefield Trinity led 6–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 27. The model went 2/4 on this match. Wakefield Trinity covered the 13.5-point line. The over 36.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 7 · Wakefield Trinity 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 70.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity +13.5 — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 36.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 71% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 173 ELO points clear, 1864 to 1691. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Wakefield Trinity.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 3 of 5 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 49. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 39.2pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 1583.4m | Run Metres | 1465.0m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 303.0 | Tackles | 316.0 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 39.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · EF W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 26 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors 82% ✓ |
| 2026 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 48 | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity 62% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 44 – 2 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2023 | R18 | Wakefield Trinity | 27 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Marshall, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.39 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.78 conceded/game). Key man: Scott, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.63/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.54/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.71/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.93/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.39/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 15 | 13 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 105m/g | 127m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 105 · 38 | 69 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 530m/g | 456m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.3/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 84.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 12 | 21 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 414m/g | 358m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.26) +15% · Centres 0.54/g (lg 0.51) +6%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.15) -7% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.2) -25% · 2nd Rows 0.22/g (lg 0.3) -27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 18 in 22g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 9/9g | 0/0g | 58% | — | — |
| 2 | Austin Daniel | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 16 in 24g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·3·1) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 13 in 17g | 10/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·3·1·2) | 18/15g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 13/12g | 0/0g | 66% | — | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 17' |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kian Mcdermott | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 4 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 2 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Walters | INT | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Shea connor | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 18 | Jack Farrimond | INT | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| 19 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 20 | Liam Farrell | INT | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 9/19g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 21 | Zach Eckersley | INT | 27 in 26g | 12/10g (1·3·2·1·2·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 68% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 11 in 27g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 18 in 16g | 11/10g (2·1·2·0·1·2·0·0·1·2) | 9/17g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 29' 45' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Tray Lolesio | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 7 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·2·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 23g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 25g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Jay Pitts | INT | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 18 | Jake Trueman | INT | 4 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 19 | Jayden Myers | INT | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 20 | Max Jowitt | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 21 | Mike McMeeken | INT | 2 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/21g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 22 | Emre Guler | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1864 · Wakefield Trinity 1691 · ELO difference: 173 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 40.5% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 30.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Halves Control | 10.1% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 4.6% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 3.2% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-24 11:51 UTC (latest tip update)