# Leeds Rhinos v Warrington Wolves — Super League Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 12 – 14 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves hunt down Leeds Rhinos in a tight one._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 58% / Warrington Wolves 42% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 26 Sept, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Ryan Hall (15' Tipped ⚡), Jake Connor (31') · Warrington Wolves: James Bentley (4' 1st), Luke Yates (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 58% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Sept 2026, 09:51 pm · Last updated: 1 Nov 2026, 11:19 am_

Leeds Rhinos 12–14 Warrington Wolves in Super League Semi Finals at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves edged out Leeds Rhinos 14-12 at AMT Headingley Stadium, a match where patience and ball control outlasted raw ambition. Leeds Rhinos leaned heavily on their running game, covering 1,288 metres at 7.3 metres per carry. Warrington Wolves, however, prioritised ball control, running 1,308 metres and completing their sets at 81% efficiency. This approach allowed them to dominate possession and territory, with 54% and 55% respectively. Leeds showed flashes of brilliance, but Warrington's discipline and structure ultimately secured the win.

Leeds Rhinos aimed to break through with high-risk plays, reflected in their 13 errors. Their offload game, with six to Warrington's four, suggested a more expansive strategy. Yet, ambition wasn't enough. Warrington limited their errors to eight, maintaining a structured game that made it difficult for Leeds to gain momentum. In such a tight contest, control often trumps flair.

James Bentley got Warrington on the board early, scoring just four minutes in. Warrington's early 6-0 lead was challenged when Ryan Hall scored for Leeds 15 minutes later, with Jake Connor converting to level the score. Connor then put Leeds ahead, but Luke Yates equalised for Warrington before half-time, leaving the teams locked at 12-all. The second half was a defensive battle, with Ewan Irwin's 65th-minute penalty goal proving decisive for Warrington.

Defensively, both sides were closely matched, with Warrington's tackle efficiency at 93.9% and Leeds at 93.8%. Warrington's 26 tackle busts to Leeds' 22 highlighted their slightly superior defensive strength, wearing down Leeds' advances. With only one line break each, offensive opportunities were scarce and tightly contested.

Warrington's advantage in the halves was crucial. Their halves rating of 1124 overshadowed Leeds' 732. On a night where creativity was limited, Warrington's playmakers ensured fewer mistakes, securing the two points needed for victory.

The Wolves' approach mirrored their recent form, with four wins in their last five games compared to Leeds' inconsistent LWWLL record. Despite Leeds averaging 27.2 points over their last five games, their average concession of 20 points per match often left them vulnerable. Warrington's disciplined display, conceding an average of 17.8 points, was enough to see them through.

Alphr's model had predicted a Leeds win with a 5.6-point margin and a combined total score of 49. However, Warrington's tactical execution reduced the total to just 26 points. The model's single correct call from 17 points highlights the sport's unpredictability, sometimes patience and control outshine boldness and flair.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 45% | Territory | **55%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| 1,288 | Run metres | **1,308** |
| 1 | Line breaks | 1 |
| 22 | Tackle busts | **26** |
| **6** | Offloads | 4 |
| 93.8% | Tackle efficiency | **93.9%** |
| 26 | Missed tackles | **22** |
| 13 | Errors | **8** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **7.3** | Metres per run | 6.5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/2 | Conversions | 2/2 |
| 0/1 | Penalty Goals | 1/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 13 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 58% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 49. The model went 1/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (36/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · Warrington Wolves 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 57.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos -3.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 34.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 6 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 58%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 23 ELO points clear, 1704 to 1682. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Leeds Rhinos.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 25.8pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.8pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1491.6m | Run Metres | 1477.4m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 284.8 | Tackles | 306.4 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L | 27.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 W · EF W | 25.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Warrington Wolves | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 71% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Leeds Rhinos | 26 – 22 | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos 74% ✓ |
| 2025 | R14 | Leeds Rhinos | 36 – 12 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 7th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.86 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 1st there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 19 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.52/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 6th) | 0.64/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.54/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 3.11/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.86/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 2.07/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.96/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 9 | 16 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 90.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 58 · 46 | 42 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 347m/g | 387m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 86.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 7 | 17 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 338m/g | 294m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.3% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.2) +25% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.06) +0% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.26) -19% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fergus McCormack | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 29 in 20g | 11/10g (1·1·2·3·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/2g | 0/0g | 73% | — | — |
| 3 | Ned Mccormack | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Harry Newman | CE | 10 in 25g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Riley Lumb | WG | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 28 in 26g | 11/10g (3·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 26g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 6 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 12 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·2·1·1) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 13 | Presley Cassell | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 16 | Zak Lloyd | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 18 | Kallum Watkins | INT | 4 in 27g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/17g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 19 | Keenan Palasia | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 20 | Ryan Hall | INT | 10 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 10/19g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 3% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 21 | George Brown | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 10 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 15 in 26g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 10/23g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 3 in 26g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/17g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $11.50 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/23g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/15g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 18 | Cai Taylor-Wray | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 19 | Ewan Irwin | INT | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 20 | Joshua Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 21 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 36' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1704 · Warrington Wolves 1682 · ELO difference: 23 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 25.8% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 25.1% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Halves Control | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Rest Days | 11.5% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.3% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 2.8% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-01 00:19 UTC (latest tip update)