Castleford Tigers
Hull
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
60%
Hull
40%
AI Match Overview
Castleford Tigers hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Hull are far from out of this at 40%. Hull are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Castleford Tigers counter with Backline Quality and H2H History which tips the scales. Hull carry a 80-point ELO rating advantage (1456 vs 1377).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Castleford Tigers to Win @1.66
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Hull -0.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R4L R5L R6W R7L R8W older → newer | 14.8 |
Hull | R4L R5W R6W R7L R8L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
34.0
Castleford Tigers
19.6
Hull
Avg Margin
-19.2
Castleford Tigers
-4.0
Hull
Run Metres
1079
Castleford Tigers
1160
Hull
Clean Breaks
4.4
Castleford Tigers
2.8
Hull
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hull hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1377), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.66).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -0.3