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Super League | Round 8

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LNER COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 17 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
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YRK

York Knights

618
LEI

Leigh Leopards

❌ Upset — model favoured York Knights at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%York KnightsFavourite

York Knights

68%

Leigh Leopards

32%

AI Match Overview

York Knights are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees York Knights ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Leigh Leopards carry a 68-point ELO rating advantage (1466 vs 1398). The margin model predicts York Knights by 1.0 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

York Knights to Win @1.47

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

York Knights +1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

York Knights Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
York Knights
R3W
R4L
R5L
R6L
R7L

older → newer

19.4
Leigh Leopards
R3L
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7L
11.4

Avg Conceded

27.4

York Knights

31.2

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-8.0

York Knights

-19.8

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1285

York Knights

1063

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

4.2

York Knights

3.4

Leigh Leopards

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1466 vs 1398), but the market favours York Knights (@1.47).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

YRK
1398Overall1466
LEI
ELO difference: -68 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

818Forwards753
Best: 983YRK +65Best: 943
919Backs771
Best: 1077YRK +148Best: 885
875Halves825
Best: 875YRK +50Best: 825
930Hooker616
YRK +314

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

YRK
Stat
LEI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
19.4pts
Avg Score
11.4pts
27.4pts
Avg Conceded
31.2pts
-8.0pts
Avg Margin
-19.8pts
1285.2m
Run Metres
1063.2m
4.2
Clean Breaks
3.4
318.8
Tackles
354.6
8.6
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Knights
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

68%

York Knights predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +1.0

0/4 match predictions correct