# York Knights v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 6 – 18 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards outpace York Knights._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 68% / Leigh Leopards 32% · LNER Community Stadium · Sat, 18 Apr, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Xavier Va'a (21') · Leigh Leopards: Gareth O'Brien (14' 1st), Josh Charnley (56'), Jacob Alick-Wiencke (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 68% | Lost |
| Leigh Leopards | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.0 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

York Knights 6–18 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 8 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights ran for more, broke more lines and beat more defenders. Leigh Leopards just held onto the ball and kicked the right goals. At the LNER Community Stadium, that trade-off won out 18-6.

The shape of the game was set early. Gareth O'Brien crossed in the 14th minute and Adam Cook's conversion made it 6-0 before York Knights had settled. Xavier Va'a hit back seven minutes later, Myles Harrison's boot levelling it at 6-6, and for a moment the home side's extra go-forward looked like it might tell. Then Cook slotted a penalty goal in the 29th to push Leigh 8-6 up at the break, and that gap never closed.

York Knights had the better of the raw numbers all night. They ran for 1,612 metres to Leigh's 1,428, cracked 5 line breaks to Leigh's 3, and racked up 24 tackle busts against 21. On paper that's a side doing plenty right. But rugby league doesn't hand out points for territory, and York Knights leaked it 11 times to Leigh's 9. Add 7 penalties conceded to Leigh's 3, and you've got a team that kept giving the ball, and the field position, back.

Leigh made them pay for it late. Josh Charnley scored in the 56th minute to make it 12-6, and Jacob Alick-Wiencke followed up in the 66th, converted by Cook, to push the margin out to 18-6 and put the game away. Three tries, all through different hands, and Leigh needed all of them because York Knights never stopped finding metres.

The form line coming in made this one awkward to picture. York Knights had won just once in their last five, Leigh the same, but York's underlying numbers, an average of 19.4 points scored to Leigh's 11.4, a hooker rating of 930 against Leigh's 616, backs rated 919 to 771, all pointed to a home side that should have controlled this. Alphr's model had York Knights at 68% to win, expected to edge it by a single point in a 41-point shootout.

None of that showed up. The total landed at 24, seventeen points under the projection, and the margin went the other way entirely, 12 points to Leigh instead of 1 to York. Both picks missed. When the chances balance out and one side keeps giving possession back through errors and penalties, the meaner defence and cleaner hands usually get the last laugh, and that's what happened here.

For York Knights, the shape of the loss will sting more than the score. Line breaks and tackle busts don't mean much if you can't finish the set, and 11 errors against a side happy to sit back and punish them turned a contest into a comfortable night for the visitors. Leigh Leopards did the least glamorous thing in the sport: look after the ball, take the penalties on offer, and let someone else make the mistakes.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,612** | Run metres | 1,428 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **24** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| 13 | Offloads | **14** |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Leigh Leopards defied the model's 68% prediction for York Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.0 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 24 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 41. Leigh Leopards led 6–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 12. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties York Knights 7 · Leigh Leopards 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 68.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 1 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on York Knights here: 68% to see off Leigh Leopards. The ratings say otherwise: Leigh Leopards sit 68 ELO points clear, 1466 to 1398, so the model is backing York Knights against the ratings gap.

York Knights own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has York Knights by 1.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back York Knights to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.4pts | Avg Score | 11.4pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | -19.8pts |
| 1292.0m | Run Metres | 1070.8m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 318.8 | Tackles | 354.6 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 19.4 |
| Leigh Leopards | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L | 11.4 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Leigh Leopards lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Leigh Leopards | 22 – 14 | York Knights | Leigh Leopards 81% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 14th there (2.86 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 13th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.57/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.57/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.86/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.29/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.86/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.86/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 2 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 23 | 13 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 471m/g | 504m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 84% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 1 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 316m/g | 344m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.05) +20% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.05) +180% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.25) +128% · Wingers 2.14/g (lg 0.95) +125%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Nofoaluma | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 3/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Kieran Buchanan | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 5 | Myles Harrison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ata Hingano | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Littlewood | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 16 | Sam Cook | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Griffin | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth O'Brien | FB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 2 | Alwyn Towse | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Innes Senior | CE | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Hughes | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 6 | Ben McNamara | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Frankie Halton | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Owen Trout | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaac Liu | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Brown | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 16 | Liam Horne | INT | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Lachlan Lam | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1466 vs 1398), but the market favours York Knights (@1.47). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1398 · Leigh Leopards 1466 · ELO difference: 68 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | York Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | York Knights |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — York Knights predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)