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Super League | Round 8

alphr.com.au

Thu 16 Apr10:00am
HULHUL
STHSTH
Fri 17 Apr10:00am
TOUTOU
HKRHKR
Fri 17 Apr10:00am
HUDHUD
LEELEE
Fri 17 Apr10:00am
YRKYRK
LEILEI
Sat 18 Apr10:00am
WAKWAK
BRDBRD
Sat 18 Apr10:00am
CATCAT
WARWAR
Sun 19 Apr10:00am
WIGWIG
CASCAS
WIG
Wigan Warriors
VS
CAS
Castleford Tigers
THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • SUNDAY 19 APR, 10:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
14
24

Scoring Breakdown

WarriorsTigers
2Tries4
2/2Conversions4/4
1/1Penalty Goals0/0
7Penalties Conceded8
16Errors5
2Line Breaks4
31Tackle Busts29
11Offloads7
1180Metres1217

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

Warriors had penalties evenly distributed (7-8). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.

PENS7 – 8
ERR16 – 5

AI Game Review

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 79% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. Castleford Tigers trailed 14–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–24. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Castleford Tigers firmly in control (99%)
WIG14
1%80'99%
24CAS
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Castleford Tigers momentumMomentum +0Wigan Warriors momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

79%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

79%

Castleford Tigers

21%

✨

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 323-point ELO rating advantage (1651 vs 1328). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 6.6 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.27

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +6.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7L

older → newer

30.6
Castleford Tigers
R3W
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7L
16.8

Avg Conceded

21.2

Wigan Warriors

32.8

Castleford Tigers

Avg Margin

9.4

Wigan Warriors

-16.0

Castleford Tigers

Run Metres

1294

Wigan Warriors

1096

Castleford Tigers

Clean Breaks

6.2

Wigan Warriors

5.2

Castleford Tigers

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 5-0
Mar 2026WIG 26 - 16 CAS
Sep 2025WIG 62 - 6 CAS
Jun 2025WIG 26 - 20 CAS
Feb 2024WIG 36 - 14 CAS
Jun 2024WIG 10 - 8 CAS
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1651Overall1328
CAS
ELO difference: +323 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

782Forwards723
Best: 1082WIG +59Best: 909
775Backs885
Best: 876CAS +110Best: 998
600Halves708
Best: 600CAS +108Best: 708
1046Hooker828
WIG +218

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
CAS
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
30.6pts
Avg Score
16.8pts
21.2pts
Avg Conceded
32.8pts
9.4pts
Avg Margin
-16.0pts
1293.8m
Run Metres
1095.8m
6.2
Clean Breaks
5.2
307.0
Tackles
312.2
10.4
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Tigers
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Tigers
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

79%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +6.6

0/4 match predictions correct