# Wigan Warriors v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 14 – 24 Castleford Tigers

_Castleford Tigers fight back to hunt down Wigan Warriors from 8 down._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 79% / Castleford Tigers 21% · The Brick Community Stadium · Mon, 20 Apr, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Dayon Sambou (24'), Zach Eckersley (28') · Castleford Tigers: Krystian Mapapalangi (4' 1st), Jack Ashworth (45'), Krystian Mapapalangi (49' 1st), George Lawler (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 79% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 21% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wigan Warriors 14–24 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 8 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors did most things right through the middle of the field. They finished with 31 tackle busts to Castleford Tigers' 29, offloaded the ball 11 times to Castleford's 7, and actually conceded fewer penalties, 7 to 8. On paper that's the shape of a side controlling the collision. It just didn't hold up, because Wigan also coughed up the ball 16 times to Castleford's 5, and that gap is where the game was lost.

It didn't look that way at half-time. Krystian Mapapalangi opened the scoring for Castleford Tigers in the 4th minute, converted by Tom Weaver for a 0-6 lead. Wigan hit back through Dayon Sambou in the 24th, then Zach Eckersley crossed four minutes later, and Adam Keighran was faultless off the tee, two conversions and a penalty goal, to send Wigan into the sheds up 14-6.

That's where it turned. Jack Ashworth scored for Castleford in the 45th to make it 14-10, Mapapalangi grabbed his second in the 49th to put Castleford in front for the first time at 14-16, and George Lawler added another in the 57th for 14-22. Weaver converted all three. Wigan didn't add another point after Keighran's penalty goal in the 36th, so from a 14-6 half-time lead they were outscored 18-0 after the break.

Final score: Castleford Tigers 24, Wigan Warriors 14, at The Brick Community Stadium.

The line break count backs up what happened out wide: Castleford 4, Wigan just 2. Run metres were close, 1,211 for Castleford to 1,173 for Wigan, so it wasn't a case of Castleford simply running over the top of them. It was about who did more with fewer chances, and who held onto the footy when it mattered.

There's context for why Castleford had the edge in the backs. They came in rated stronger there, 885 to 775, and stronger in the halves too, 708 to 600.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1,173 | Run metres | **1,211** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **31** | Tackle busts | 29 |
| **11** | Offloads | 7 |
| 16 | Errors | **5** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 16 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 79% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. Castleford Tigers trailed 14–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–24. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 7 · Castleford Tigers 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 78.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 7 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 79% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 323 ELO points clear, 1651 to 1328. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.6pts | Avg Score | 16.8pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 32.8pts |
| 9.4pts | Avg Margin | -16.0pts |
| 1301.0m | Run Metres | 1102.6m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 307.0 | Tackles | 312.2 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L | 30.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L | 16.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Castleford Tigers | 16 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Wigan Warriors | 62 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Castleford Tigers | 20 – 26 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 36 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R14 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 10 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2.14 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 11th there (2.14 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.29/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.57/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2.14/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.86/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.71/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.14/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 2 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 97m/g | 73m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.8% | 90.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 10 | 7 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 541m/g | 382m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 11.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 2 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 463m/g | 291m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 95.1% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.05) +200% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.25) +64% · Wingers 1.46/g (lg 0.96) +52%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.2/g (lg 0.27) -26% · Halfbacks 0.11/g (lg 0.18) -39%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (2·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 6/8g | 41/49g | 58% | — | — |
| 2 | Dayon Sambou | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 8 in 7g | 11/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·2·0·1·1) | 4/5g | 14/27g | 54% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 4 | Liam Farrell | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/17g | 22/65g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 15/15g | 50/67g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Adam Keighran | 5/8 | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 9/27g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Farrimond | HB | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 4/5g | 44% | — | — |
| 8 | Samuel Eseh | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 8/37g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/52g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Forber | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Kian Mcdermott | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jenson Windley | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 5/14g | 0/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 4' 49' |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Brock Greacen | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | George Hirst | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1651 · Castleford Tigers 1328 · ELO difference: 323 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)