Wigan Warriors
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Wigan Warriors
79%
Castleford Tigers
21%
AI Match Overview
Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 323-point ELO rating advantage (1651 vs 1328). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 6.6 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wigan Warriors to Win @1.27
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Wigan Warriors +6.6 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wigan Warriors | R3W R4W R5W R6L R7L older → newer | 30.6 |
Castleford Tigers | R3W R4L R5L R6W R7L | 16.8 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Wigan Warriors
32.8
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
9.4
Wigan Warriors
-16.0
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1294
Wigan Warriors
1096
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
6.2
Wigan Warriors
5.2
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +6.6