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Super League | Round 8

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SATURDAY 18 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

5212
BRD

Bradford Bulls

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 84%

AI Win Probability

84%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

84%

Bradford Bulls

16%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bradford Bulls. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wakefield Trinity carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1571 vs 1464). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bradford Bulls. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 14.7 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.19

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +14.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R3L
R4W
R5W
R6W
R7W

older → newer

21.6
Bradford Bulls
R3W
R4L
R5W
R6L
R7L
21.2

Avg Conceded

13.0

Wakefield Trinity

22.0

Bradford Bulls

Avg Margin

8.6

Wakefield Trinity

-0.8

Bradford Bulls

Run Metres

1302

Wakefield Trinity

1172

Bradford Bulls

Clean Breaks

4.8

Wakefield Trinity

4.0

Bradford Bulls

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1571Overall1464
BRD
ELO difference: +108 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1008Forwards720
Best: 1336WAK +288Best: 911
1094Backs946
Best: 1366WAK +148Best: 1123
1022Halves1100
Best: 1022BRD +78Best: 1100
600Hooker1070
BRD +470

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
BRD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
21.6pts
Avg Score
21.2pts
13.0pts
Avg Conceded
22.0pts
8.6pts
Avg Margin
-0.8pts
1301.8m
Run Metres
1171.6m
4.8
Clean Breaks
4.0
362.8
Tackles
350.2
10.0
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Bulls
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

84%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 15 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +14.7

3/4 match predictions correct