# Toulouse Olympique v Hull KR — Super League Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 0 – 46 Hull KR

_Hull KR run riot over Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 0 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 51% / Hull KR 49% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sat, 18 Apr, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: none · Hull KR: Elliot Minchella (8' 1st), Rhyse Martin (31'), Dean Hadley (36'), Joe Burgess (42'), Jez Litten (49'), Peta Hiku (60'), Jai Whitbread (69'), Joe Burgess (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 51% | Lost |
| Hull KR | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 0–46 Hull KR in Super League Round 8 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR by 4.3 points. Fair read on paper, close contest between a side with three wins from five and a side without any. What actually turned up at Stade Ernest Wallon was 46-0. Hull KR by 46, not 4.3. That's not a miss, that's a different sport.

The total, oddly, was close to spot on. Model said 45 combined, the game produced 46. So the shape of the scoring was wrong but the volume was almost right, which tells you the model saw points coming, just assumed Toulouse would get a share of them. They didn't get any.

The pattern was set early. Elliot Minchella opened it in the 8th minute, Mikey Lewis added the extras, and by the 9th minute it was already 0-6. Rhyse Martin then took over the kicking duties and didn't miss again all match, slotting six from six as the tries kept coming. Toulouse conceded three more before the break, Martin himself scoring in the 31st, Dean Hadley following in the 36th, and it was 0-18 at half-time. Nothing in that opening forty suggested a stop was coming.

There wasn't one. Joe Burgess crossed twice, either side of the hour mark near enough, either side of tries from Jez Litten, Peta Hiku and Jai Whitbread, and the margin just kept stretching. Seven different try scorers for Hull KR, none of them Toulouse.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Hull KR ran for 1,717 metres to Toulouse's 1,088, a gap of well over 600 metres that shows up directly in the eight line breaks Hull KR made against Toulouse's one. Forty tackle busts to 30 is a smaller gap but points the same way: Hull KR's ball runners kept finding grass, Toulouse's kept getting stopped. Even discipline went Hull KR's way, conceding two penalties to Toulouse's three, so there was no free relief on offer either.

The positional ratings pre-match flagged exactly where this would be won. Hull KR's backs were rated 1121 against Toulouse's 851, a gulf of 270 points, and it was the backs who did the damage: Martin, Burgess twice, Hiku, all backline names among the try list. Toulouse actually had the stronger hooker rating on paper, 979 to 894, and did shade the offload count, 10 to 8, for what little that was worth without field position or possession to use it.

Form lines told the story before kickoff. Toulouse arrived on five straight losses, conceding an average of 27.6 points a game. They shipped 46. Hull KR came in winning three of five with a scoring average of 26.8 and a positive margin of 5.6. They banked 46 and let in nothing, a performance well clear of even their own recent numbers.

For Alphr's model, this one goes in the miss column, and not quietly. The winner picked was wrong and the margin was wrong by more than 40 points. The total held up fine, which is its own small mercy, but on a night like this that's a footnote, not a defence.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1,088 | Run metres | **1,717** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 30 | Tackle busts | **40** |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 8 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 7/8 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 11 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull KR defied the model's 51% prediction for Toulouse Olympique, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.3 but the actual margin was 46 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 1 points. Hull KR led 0–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 3 · Hull KR 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 51.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Toulouse Olympique and Hull KR. The model can't split them, landing on Toulouse Olympique at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull KR sit 230 ELO points clear, 1631 to 1401, so the model is backing Toulouse Olympique against the ratings gap. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Toulouse Olympique.

On paper Hull KR shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Toulouse Olympique, which says Forward Pack and H2H History carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull KR by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -10.8pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1182.0m | Run Metres | 1246.6m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 323.4 | Tackles | 314.0 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 16.8 |
| Hull KR | R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Hull KR | 12 – 32 | Toulouse Olympique | Hull KR 74% ✗ |
| 2022 | R22 | Hull KR | 22 – 16 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R17 | Toulouse Olympique | 28 – 6 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2022 | R9 | Toulouse Olympique | 24 – 28 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 13th there (1.83 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (1.86 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.86/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) | 0.5/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 1 | 8 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 143m/g | 221m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 85.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 22 | 13 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 584m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.7/g | 12.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.3% | 75.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 3 | 2 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 302m/g | 265m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.26) -4% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.48) -31% · Wingers 0.63/g (lg 0.95) -34%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.05) +180% · Wingers 2/g (lg 0.95) +111% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.48) +108%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 43% | — | — |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Mathieu Pons | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 21% | — | — |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Baptiste Rodriguez | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | James Roumanos | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | AJ Wallace | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 8 in 6g | 12/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·1·1·3·2) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 60% | — | 🏉 42' 72' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·3·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 14 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 15 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 16 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1631 vs 1401), but the market favours Toulouse Olympique (@1.96). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1401 · Hull KR 1631 · ELO difference: 230 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Toulouse Olympique |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)