Toulouse Olympique
Hull KR
AI Win Probability
Toulouse Olympique
51%
Hull KR
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Toulouse Olympique a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Hull KR are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Toulouse Olympique counter with Forward Pack and H2H History which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 230-point ELO rating advantage (1631 vs 1401). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 4.3 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Toulouse Olympique to Win @1.96
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Hull KR -4.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull KR 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Toulouse Olympique | R3L R4L R5L R6L R7L older → newer | 16.8 |
Hull KR | R3L R4W R5L R6W R7W | 26.8 |
Avg Conceded
27.6
Toulouse Olympique
21.2
Hull KR
Avg Margin
-10.8
Toulouse Olympique
5.6
Hull KR
Run Metres
1175
Toulouse Olympique
1240
Hull KR
Clean Breaks
5.0
Toulouse Olympique
5.4
Hull KR
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1631 vs 1401), but the market favours Toulouse Olympique (@1.96).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -4.3