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Super League | Round 8

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • THURSDAY 16 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1424
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 66%

AI Win Probability

66%St HelensFavourite

Hull

34%

St Helens

66%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 122-point ELO rating advantage (1598 vs 1476). Recent form favours St Helens with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.51

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

St Helens -0.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6W
R7L

older → newer

16.0
St Helens
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W
27.2

Avg Conceded

18.2

Hull

23.6

St Helens

Avg Margin

-2.2

Hull

3.6

St Helens

Run Metres

1198

Hull

1211

St Helens

Clean Breaks

3.4

Hull

5.6

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
Aug 2025HUL 10 - 16 STH
Jul 2025HUL 6 - 13 STH
Feb 2024HUL 0 - 58 STH
Jul 2024HUL 6 - 46 STH
Sep 2023HUL 12 - 30 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1476Overall1598
STH
ELO difference: -122 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

824Forwards823
Best: 959EvenBest: 1088
848Backs880
Best: 1003STH +32Best: 1045
800Halves769
Best: 800HUL +31Best: 769
600Hooker1231
STH +631

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
STH
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
16.0pts
Avg Score
27.2pts
18.2pts
Avg Conceded
23.6pts
-2.2pts
Avg Margin
3.6pts
1198.0m
Run Metres
1211.2m
3.4
Clean Breaks
5.6
330.0
Tackles
303.8
9.8
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

66%

St Helens predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 35 · Line: -0.6

3/4 match predictions correct