# Hull FC v St Helens — Super League Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 14 – 24 St Helens

_St Helens hit back to march in over Hull FC._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 34% / St Helens 66% · MKM Stadium · Fri, 17 Apr, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Logan Moy (10' 1st), Amir Bourouh (27') · St Helens: Jake Davies (19'), Noah Stephens (46'), Kyle Feldt (61'), Harry Robertson (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 66% | Won |
| Hull FC | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull FC 14–24 St Helens in Super League Round 8 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens beat Hull FC 24–14 at MKM Stadium. Trailing 12–6 at half-time, St Helens flipped the game after the break.

Logan Moy opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Logan Moy and Amir Bourouh; St Helens scored through Jake Davies, Noah Stephens, Kyle Feldt and Harry Robertson.

St Helens were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 8 times to 14. St Helens were sharper in attack, breaking the line 3 times to 2. Hull FC held the discipline edge, conceding 3 penalties to 8.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1,109 | Run metres | **1,211** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **34** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| **13** | Offloads | 7 |
| 14 | Errors | **8** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 14 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 0.6 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 35 was close to the actual 38, within 3 points. St Helens trailed 12–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–24. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (43/100) — penalties Hull FC 3 · St Helens 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 1 · Predicted total: 35

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | St Helens | 18 – 32 | Hull FC | St Helens 63% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | St Helens | 16 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R17 | Hull FC | 6 – 13 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 58 – 0 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R20 | Hull FC | 6 – 46 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.71 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 12th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Murphy, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.71/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.14/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.57/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 6 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 83m/g | 230m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.4/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 90.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 18 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 499m/g | 419m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16/g | 16.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 84.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 2 | 7 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 336m/g | 296m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.2) +0% · Centres 0.42/g (lg 0.48) -12% · Wingers 0.83/g (lg 0.95) -13%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/17g | 3/23g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 7/21g | 27% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 23/29g | 56% | — | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/17g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Ligi Sao | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/39g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/16g | 2% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 3/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 4/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 2/44g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 5 in 4g | 12/10g (2·2·0·0·1·2·1·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 74% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | George Whitby | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Matty Lees | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jake Davies | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Alex Walmsley | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)