Win Probability
Full TimeScoring Breakdown
Ref Watch
by AlphrFC had a +5 penalty advantage. Error differential (14-9) also notable. Minor disparity worth monitoring but unlikely to have been decisive.
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 0.6 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 35 was close to the actual 38, within 3 points. St Helens trailed 12–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–24. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 40.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hull FC
34%
St Helens
66%
AI Match Overview
St Helens are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull FC. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Hull FC with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Helens.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.51
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
St Helens -0.6 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull FC | R3L R4L R5W R6W R7L older → newer | 23.3 |
St Helens | R3W R4W R5W R6L R7W | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
20.2
Hull FC
26.7
St Helens
Avg Margin
12.7
Hull FC
9.6
St Helens
Run Metres
1573
Hull FC
1310
St Helens
Line Breaks
6.1
Hull FC
3.2
St Helens
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
St Helens predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 35 · Line: -0.6