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Super League | Round 8

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THE ACCU STADIUM • FRIDAY 17 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

2256
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

❌ Upset — model favoured Huddersfield Giants at 54%

AI Win Probability

54%Huddersfield GiantsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

54%

Leeds Rhinos

46%

AI Match Overview

Huddersfield Giants hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 46%. Leeds Rhinos are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Huddersfield Giants counter with Forward Pack and Halves Control which tips the scales. Leeds Rhinos carry a 273-point ELO rating advantage (1665 vs 1391). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 3.6 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Huddersfield Giants to Win @1.85

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -3.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R3L
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7W

older → newer

19.2
Leeds Rhinos
R3W
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7W
29.2

Avg Conceded

24.4

Huddersfield Giants

13.6

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-5.2

Huddersfield Giants

15.6

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1244

Huddersfield Giants

1383

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

3.8

Huddersfield Giants

5.6

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
May 2026HUD 0 - 52 LEE
Sep 2025HUD 0 - 26 LEE
Apr 2025HUD 6 - 28 LEE
Feb 2024HUD 30 - 24 LEE
Jul 2024HUD 6 - 34 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1665 vs 1391), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.85).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1391Overall1665
LEE
ELO difference: -273 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

911Forwards875
Best: 1112HUD +36Best: 1114
1038Backs1082
Best: 1214LEE +43Best: 1207
964Halves750
Best: 964HUD +215Best: 750
1264Hooker600
HUD +664

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
LEE
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
19.2pts
Avg Score
29.2pts
24.4pts
Avg Conceded
13.6pts
-5.2pts
Avg Margin
15.6pts
1244.2m
Run Metres
1383.4m
3.8
Clean Breaks
5.6
313.2
Tackles
296.6
9.0
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

54%

Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -3.6

2/4 match predictions correct