Catalans Dragons
Warrington Wolves
AI Win Probability
Catalans Dragons
55%
Warrington Wolves
45%
AI Match Overview
Catalans Dragons hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Warrington Wolves are far from out of this at 45%. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate, but Catalans Dragons counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Warrington Wolves carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1561 vs 1474). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 4.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Catalans Dragons to Win @1.83
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Warrington Wolves -4.2 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Catalans Dragons | R3L R4W R5W R6L R7W older → newer | 21.0 |
Warrington Wolves | R3W R4W R5W R6L R7W | 40.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Catalans Dragons
16.8
Warrington Wolves
Avg Margin
-3.4
Catalans Dragons
23.4
Warrington Wolves
Run Metres
1194
Catalans Dragons
1373
Warrington Wolves
Clean Breaks
4.4
Catalans Dragons
7.0
Warrington Wolves
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1561 vs 1474), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.83).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -4.2