# Catalans Dragons v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 38 – 22 Warrington Wolves

_Catalans Dragons torch Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 55% / Warrington Wolves 45% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 19 Apr, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Tommy Makinson (35'), Leo Darrelatour (39'), Tommy Makinson (49'), Lewis Dodd (54'), Lewis Dodd (69'), Lewis Dodd (72'), Zac Lipowicz (77') · Warrington Wolves: Jake Thewlis (15' 1st), George Williams (25'), Josh Thewlis (46'), Max Wood (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 55% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 38–22 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 8 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes changed everything. Catalans Dragons trailed 10-0 with half an hour gone, Jake Thewlis and George Williams doing the damage for Warrington Wolves inside the opening 25 minutes, Marc Sneyd's conversion making it double figures. Then Tommy Makinson and Leo Darrelatour crossed either side of half-time to drag the scores level at 10-10, and from there the whole shape of the game flipped.

Warrington Wolves briefly found the lead again through Josh Thewlis just after the break, Sneyd's conversion pushing it to 16-10. Makinson's second try pulled it back level within minutes. That was the last time the scoreboard was close all night.

From 56 minutes Lewis Dodd took the game away from Warrington almost single-handedly, a hat-trick between the 54th and 72nd minutes turning a 22-16 lead into a rout. Zac Lipowicz added a fourth try in the closing stages to make it 38-16 before Max Wood's late score for Warrington Wolves just dressed up the final margin. Catalans Dragons 38, Warrington Wolves 22, and it wasn't nearly as tight as that final half-time scoreline suggested it might be.

The stat sheet doesn't scream 16-point win, and that's the interesting bit. Warrington Wolves were the tidier side with the ball, 9 errors to Catalans Dragons' 10, and they edged the line-break count 8 to 7 with 16 offloads to 12. On paper that's a side playing the better footy. But Catalans Dragons ran for 1,487 metres to Warrington's 1,250, over 200 more, and conceded just 3 penalties to Warrington's 7. Field position and discipline did the heavy lifting while the highlight-reel stats went the other way.

That gap between backline strength lines up with what happened after half-time. Catalans Dragons came in rated well ahead in the backs, 1,007 to 888, even with Warrington's halves pairing rated miles superior at 1,088 to 813. When it mattered, it was the Catalans back three doing the scoring, Makinson twice, Dodd three times, Lipowicz once, while Warrington's spread was thinner: one each for Jake Thewlis, Williams, Josh Thewlis and Wood.

Form lines told a different story coming in. Warrington Wolves arrived averaging 40.2 points a game across their last five with a margin of plus-23.4, Catalans Dragons underwater at minus-3.4. Reverse form, reverse result. That's footy for you.

Alphr's model picked Catalans Dragons at 55% and got the winner right. The margin was where it fell over, tipped at 4.2 points to Warrington Wolves against a combined total of 43. Instead Catalans Dragons won by 16 and the game produced 60 points, 17 more than forecast. One from two on this one, the kind of scoreline that reminds you win probability and margin are two very different bets.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,487** | Run metres | 1,250 |
| 7 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **26** |
| 12 | Offloads | **16** |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 4 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 60 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 3 · Warrington Wolves 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 55%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Warrington Wolves sit 87 ELO points clear, 1561 to 1474, so the model is backing Catalans Dragons against the ratings gap. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Catalans Dragons.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Catalans Dragons, which says Backline Quality and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.0pts | Avg Score | 40.2pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -3.4pts | Avg Margin | 23.4pts |
| 1201.4m | Run Metres | 1380.6m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 7.0 |
| 336.4 | Tackles | 279.6 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 6.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 21.0 |
| Warrington Wolves | R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 40.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 16 | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves 73% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 22 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R18 | Catalans Dragons | 20 – 24 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 32 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.71 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Lipowicz, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (4 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 7th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.57/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 7th) | 4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.71/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 2 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 3/g |
| Run Metres | 108m/g | 196m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 15 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 492m/g | 416m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 85.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 8 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 227m/g | 301m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 94.8% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.18) +33% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Centres 0.45/g (lg 0.48) -6%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.05) +40% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 57% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0) | 9/10g | 7/16g | 42% | — | 🏉 35' 49' |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/11g | 23% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 43% | — | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 30% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 29% | — | — |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/8g | 26% | — | 🏉 54' 69' 72' |
| 8 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 2/40g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/53g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/29g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 6/11g | 3/5g | 46% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 2 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/18g | 2/5g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 47% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/21g | 3/5g | 24% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelepi Tanginoa | 2R | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4·0) | 4/13g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 5/19g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 15 | Taofofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/20g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1561 vs 1474), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.83). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1474 · Warrington Wolves 1561 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)