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Super League | Round 7

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SATURDAY 4 APR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

426
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 65%

AI Win Probability

65%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

65%

Leigh Leopards

35%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 13.6 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.54

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +13.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6L

older → newer

36.6
Leigh Leopards
R2L
R3L
R4L
R5L
R6W
13.8

Avg Conceded

18.4

Warrington Wolves

26.8

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

18.2

Warrington Wolves

-13.0

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1310

Warrington Wolves

1114

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

6.4

Warrington Wolves

4.0

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
Sep 2025WAR 12 - 34 LEI
Jul 2025WAR 16 - 20 LEI
Apr 2025WAR 14 - 18 LEI
Feb 2024WAR 16 - 14 LEI
Aug 2024WAR 12 - 16 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1515 vs 1514), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.54).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1514Overall1515
LEI
ELO difference: -1 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

743Forwards936
Best: 1006LEI +194Best: 1214
1002Backs1030
Best: 1096LEI +29Best: 1190
1147Halves824
Best: 1147WAR +323Best: 824
892Hooker803
WAR +90

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
LEI
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
36.6pts
Avg Score
13.8pts
18.4pts
Avg Conceded
26.8pts
18.2pts
Avg Margin
-13.0pts
1310.2m
Run Metres
1113.6m
6.4
Clean Breaks
4.0
287.4
Tackles
342.0
5.6
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

65%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: +13.6

3/4 match predictions correct