# Warrington Wolves v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 42 – 6 Leigh Leopards

_Warrington Wolves put Leigh Leopards to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 65% / Leigh Leopards 35% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sun, 05 Apr, 01:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Smith (1' 1st), Matty Ashton (11'), James Bentley (25'), Joe Philbin (34'), George Williams (54'), Matty Ashton (57'), Sam Powell (72') · Leigh Leopards: Adam Cook (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 65% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.6 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 42–6 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 7 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards can point to one number on the stat sheet and say they came out on top: offloads, 9 to Warrington's 7. It suggests they were still trying to play some footy when the ball was wet and the game was already gone. That's about where the positives end. Everything else belonged to Warrington Wolves, and by full time Leigh were staring at a 42-6 scoreline that flattered nobody wearing red and white.

The forward pack ratings going in actually favoured Leigh, 936 to Warrington's 743 on paper. It never showed up on the field. Warrington ran for 1,477 metres to Leigh's 877, a 600 metre gap that tells you who was doing the go-forward and who spent the afternoon scrambling in defence. Leigh's platform, such as it was, never got past halfway before the tackle count caught up with them.

Where it really came apart was in the collision. Warrington busted 38 tackles to Leigh's 18 and broke the line seven times to three, numbers that line up neatly with the halves gap coming in: 1,147 to 824 in Warrington's favour. Marc Sneyd and George Williams had the room and the time to use it, and Leigh's edges couldn't hold.

The scoreline was built early. Josh Smith opened it inside the first minute, Matty Ashton crossed at the 11th, James Bentley at 25 and Joe Philbin at 34, with Sneyd converting every one. Warrington led 24-0 at half-time. Four tries, four conversions, nothing from Leigh in reply. That's not a slow start, it's a non-existent one.

The second half only stretched it further. Sneyd added a penalty goal at 46, then George Williams scored at 54 and Ashton got his second three minutes later to make it 36-0. Leigh's only entry into the contest came through Adam Cook, who scored and converted his own try at the 63rd minute to bring it to 36-6. It lasted nine minutes before Sam Powell crossed for Warrington to push the margin out to 42-6 and put the game to bed.

Leigh's errors, 10 for the game against Warrington's 9, weren't the difference on their own. But paired with six penalties conceded to Warrington's four, it meant every small mistake came at a worse time, against a side that was scoring off almost every chance it got.

The form lines had this coming. Warrington arrived off four wins from their last five, averaging 36.6 points scored and just 18.4 conceded. Leigh had won one of their last five, leaking 26.8 points a game and averaging a run of 1,121 metres to Warrington's 1,317. None of that guaranteed a 36 point beating, but it wasn't a surprise either.

Alphr's model had Warrington favourites at 65 per cent and got the winner right. The margin was where it fell over: 13.6 points projected, 36 delivered, one of the bigger misses you'll see from that model. The total score was closer to the mark, 50 points tipped against 48 actual, within two. One from two on this one, and the margin line is the one worth remembering next time Warrington's halves are rated this far clear of the opposition's.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,477** | Run metres | 877 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **38** | Tackle busts | 18 |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| **9** | Errors | 10 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.6 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. Warrington Wolves led 24–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 4 · Leigh Leopards 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 65.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 14 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 65% to see off Leigh Leopards. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Leigh Leopards.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 13.6, with the two sides combining for about 50. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 36.6pts | Avg Score | 13.8pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 18.2pts | Avg Margin | -13.0pts |
| 1317.2m | Run Metres | 1121.0m |
| 6.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 287.4 | Tackles | 342.0 |
| 5.6 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R1 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L | 36.6 |
| Leigh Leopards | R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W | 13.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 12 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 57% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 59% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 34 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 20 – 16 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.6 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 14th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 11th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 3.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.17/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 3 | 2 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 3.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 183m/g | 92m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 12 | 12 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 440m/g | 548m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.6/g | 17.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 1 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 293m/g | 356m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.6% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.05) +20% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/7g | 26/51g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Joshua Smith | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 1' |
| 3 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 60% | — | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 21/42g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 12/43g | 22% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Thomas | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 9/57g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/6g | 16/65g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/27g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 72' |
| 16 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/52g | 2% | — | 🏉 34' |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth O'Brien | FB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/16g | 3/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 8/10g | 5/6g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Cook | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | William Brough | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 6/10g | 18/22g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Ben McNamara | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Ofahengaue | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leigh Leopards hold the ELO advantage (1515 vs 1514), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.54). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1514 · Leigh Leopards 1515 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)