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Super League | Round 7

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 3 APR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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STH

St Helens

3424
WIG

Wigan Warriors

❌ Upset — model favoured Wigan Warriors at 58%

AI Win Probability

58%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

St Helens

42%

Wigan Warriors

58%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 128-point ELO rating advantage (1689 vs 1561). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 7.8 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.72

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -7.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R2W
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6L

older → newer

24.4
Wigan Warriors
R2W
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6L
32.6

Avg Conceded

22.4

St Helens

15.6

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

2.0

St Helens

17.0

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1220

St Helens

1330

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

5.4

St Helens

6.4

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Sep 2025STH 4 - 18 WIG
Apr 2025STH 14 - 24 WIG
Feb 2024STH 12 - 4 WIG
Aug 2024STH 0 - 20 WIG
Jul 2024STH 12 - 16 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1561Overall1689
WIG
ELO difference: -128 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

767Forwards904
Best: 1044WIG +137Best: 1109
773Backs1076
Best: 876WIG +304Best: 1233
736Halves609
Best: 736STH +127Best: 609
1095Hooker735
STH +360

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
WIG
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
24.4pts
Avg Score
32.6pts
22.4pts
Avg Conceded
15.6pts
2.0pts
Avg Margin
17.0pts
1219.8m
Run Metres
1330.4m
5.4
Clean Breaks
6.4
301.6
Tackles
299.4
10.8
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

58%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -7.8

1/4 match predictions correct