# St Helens v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 34 – 24 Wigan Warriors

_St Helens hit back to march past Wigan Warriors._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 42% / Wigan Warriors 58% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sat, 04 Apr, 01:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Matt Whitley (14'), Daryl Clark (29'), Jackson Hastings (71'), Tristan Sailor (74'), Bill Leyland (77'), Bill Leyland (78') · Wigan Warriors: Harry Smith (6' 1st), Jack Farrimond (20'), Jai Field (53'), Zach Eckersley (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 58% | Lost |
| St Helens | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.8 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

St Helens 34–24 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 7 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

With 12 minutes left, Wigan Warriors led 24-10 and looked home. Then St Helens scored four tries without reply, the last of them in the 78th minute, and turned what had been a comfortable Wigan lead into a 34-24 win. That collapse, and the manner of it, is the story of this one.

Wigan Warriors led at the break too, 12-10, after Harry Smith crossed inside six minutes and Jack Farrimond added a second in the 20th to push the margin out to eight. St Helens hit back through Matt Whitley in the 14th and Daryl Clark in the 29th, with Tristan Sailor's conversion getting them to within two at half-time. Jai Field and Zach Eckersley kept Wigan Warriors moving after the break, tries in the 53rd and 65th minutes that stretched the lead to 24-10 by the 67th. At that point the game looked done and dusted.

Then St Helens found another gear entirely. Jackson Hastings went over in the 71st, Sailor scored himself in the 74th, and Bill Leyland crossed twice either side of the 77th and 78th minutes. Four tries, 24 points, and not a reply from Wigan Warriors in between. Sailor slotted every conversion he was given in that run, and by full-time St Helens had turned a 14-point deficit into a 10-point win.

The underlying numbers help explain how that kind of turnaround was even possible. St Helens broke the line six times to Wigan Warriors' four, and racked up 48 tackle busts to Wigan Warriors' 24, more than double. Twelve offloads to seven kept the ball alive through contact, which counts for a lot when you're trying to manufacture four tries in the last quarter of an hour. Wigan Warriors actually had the edge in run metres, 1,179 to 1,076, so this wasn't a case of St Helens simply owning field position. It was about what they did with the ball once it got beyond the advantage line, busting tackles and keeping it alive through contact rather than just carrying it up.

Discipline mattered too. St Helens conceded five penalties to Wigan Warriors' eight, and while both sides managed nine errors apiece, the penalty count gave St Helens more sets and more chances to find the space they eventually exploited late.

On paper, this was supposed to go the other way. Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors favourites by 7.8 points, and the pre-match numbers back that up: Wigan Warriors rated stronger in the forwards (904 to 767) and miles ahead in the backs (1,076 to 773). St Helens' advantage was always going to come from the spine, with their hooker rating (1,095 to 735) and halves (736 to 609) well clear of Wigan Warriors' numbers there. That's more or less how it played out. Wigan Warriors' forward and outside-back muscle got them a two-score lead, but St Helens' spine found a way to turn quick hands and busted tackles into 24 unanswered points when it mattered.

The model's call missed here, and by more than a rounding error. It had Wigan Warriors winning by 7.8; instead St Helens won by 10, a 17.8-point swing on the margin alone. Both teams had come into the game level on form, four wins from five apiece, but Wigan Warriors' average winning margin over that stretch was 17 points to St Helens' 2. On the day, St Helens found exactly that kind of blowout scoreline, just in the opposite direction.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,076 | Run metres | **1,179** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **48** | Tackle busts | 24 |
| **12** | Offloads | 7 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 4 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

St Helens defied the model's 58% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 10 points. St Helens trailed 10–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 34–24. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties St Helens 5 · Wigan Warriors 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 58.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 8 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wigan Warriors are the call at 58%, but St Helens stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 128 ELO points clear, 1689 to 1561.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 7.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Wigan Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 32.6pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 15.6pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | 17.0pts |
| 1227.6m | Run Metres | 1338.2m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 6.4 |
| 301.4 | Tackles | 299.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L | 24.4 |
| Wigan Warriors | R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L | 32.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 16 | St Helens | Wigan Warriors 76% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Wigan Warriors | 16 – 14 | St Helens | Wigan Warriors 53% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | St Helens | 4 – 18 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Wigan Warriors | 24 – 14 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 12 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Clark, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 6th) | 2.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 7th) | 2.17/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 6 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 227m/g | 98m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 78.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 22 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 421m/g | 561m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.5/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 79.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 2 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 305m/g | 462m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.2/g (lg 0.26) -23% · Halfbacks 0.11/g (lg 0.17) -35%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.2) -5% · Centres 0.43/g (lg 0.47) -9% · Wingers 0.83/g (lg 0.95) -13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harry Robertson | FB | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/13g | 31% | — | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/8g | 37% | — | — |
| 3 | Matt Whitley | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 5/26g | 4% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/8g | 6/12g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 6/7g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 12/15g | 27% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 7 | Joe Shorrocks | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/26g | 8/28g | 18% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 10 | Agnatius Paasi | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 5/43g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Wingfield | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Davies | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/13g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' 78' |
| 17 | Jackson Hastings | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/6g | 20% | — | 🏉 71' |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 4 in 3g | 10/10g (1·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 6/8g | 3/4g | 58% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 7 in 6g | 12/10g (2·2·0·1·2·1·1·2·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Liam Farrell | CE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/21g | 3/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 7/16g | 3/7g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 14% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Walters | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Oliver Partington | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Hodkinson | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1561 · Wigan Warriors 1689 · ELO difference: 128 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r7-st-helens-v-wigan-warriors
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)