# Hull KR v Hull FC — Super League Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 24 – 6 Hull FC

_Hull KR outfox Hull FC._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 79% / Hull FC 21% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 03 Apr, 10:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Jack Broadbent (9' 1st), Oliver Gildart (17'), Jez Litten (56'), Joe Burgess (69'), Joe Burgess (79') · Hull FC: Tom Briscoe (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 79% | Won |
| Hull FC | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Hull KR 24–6 Hull FC in Super League Round 7 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR ran past Hull FC 24–6 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Leading 10–6 at half-time, Hull KR pulled clear late.

Jack Broadbent opened the scoring; Hull KR crossed through Jack Broadbent, Oliver Gildart, Jez Litten and Joe Burgess (2); Hull FC scored through Tom Briscoe.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 12 times to 13. Hull KR were sharper in attack, breaking the line 5 times to 2.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,215** | Run metres | 1,024 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 31 | Tackle busts | **44** |
| 10 | Offloads | **12** |
| 13 | Errors | **12** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 2/5 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 13 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 18 points. Hull KR led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Hull KR 9 · Hull FC 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 78.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — model probability 78.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 78.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 3 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 79% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 108 ELO points clear, 1608 to 1500.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull KR to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| 1.8pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 1236.8m | Run Metres | 1165.8m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 318.4 | Tackles | 349.6 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R1 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W | 25.6 |
| Hull FC | R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 W | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Hull FC | 20 – 34 | Hull KR | Hull KR 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Hull KR | 26 – 12 | Hull FC | Hull KR 70% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Hull KR | 18 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Hull FC | 14 – 28 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 4th there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 2 | 0 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 227m/g | 71m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 11 | 11 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 576m/g | 512m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 73.9% | 82.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 7 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 255m/g | 348m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.26) -4% · Props 0.1/g (lg 0.14) -29% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.47) -30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 10/22g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/18g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 12/27g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/13g | 28% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·1·1·1·3) | 0/0g | 23/22g | 56% | — | 🏉 69' 79' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·3) | 0/0g | 30/47g | 52% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 8/27g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/33g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 9/52g | 24% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/44g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 13/36g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/50g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/39g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/29g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Karl Lawton | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/17g | 3/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 27% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 56% | — | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Zak Hardaker | HB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Ligi Sao | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Bell | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Connor Bailey | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cade Cust | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1608 · Hull FC 1500 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)