Win Probability
Full TimeScoring Breakdown
Ref Watch
by AlphrFC had penalties evenly distributed (9-9). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 18 points. Hull KR led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hull KR
79%
Hull FC
21%
AI Match Overview
Hull KR are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull FC. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Hull KR carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1608 vs 1500). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 3.0 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull KR to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Hull KR +3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull KR 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull KR | R1L R3L R4W R5L R6W older → newer | 25.6 |
Hull FC | R2L R3L R4L R5W R6W | 16.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.8
Hull KR
20.2
Hull FC
Avg Margin
1.8
Hull KR
-4.2
Hull FC
Run Metres
1230
Hull KR
1158
Hull FC
Clean Breaks
5.2
Hull KR
3.4
Hull FC
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +3.0