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Super League | Round 7

alphr.com.au

VS
HUL
Hull
SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • FRIDAY 3 APR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

246
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 79%

AI Win Probability

79%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

79%

Hull

21%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Hull KR carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1608 vs 1500). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 3.0 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R1L
R3L
R4W
R5L
R6W

older → newer

25.6
Hull
R2L
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6W
16.0

Avg Conceded

23.8

Hull KR

20.2

Hull

Avg Margin

1.8

Hull KR

-4.2

Hull

Run Metres

1230

Hull KR

1158

Hull

Clean Breaks

5.2

Hull KR

3.4

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Sep 2025HKR 18 - 4 HUL
Apr 2025HKR 28 - 14 HUL
Feb 2024HKR 34 - 10 HUL
Jul 2024HKR 24 - 10 HUL
Mar 2024HKR 22 - 0 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1608Overall1500
HUL
ELO difference: +108 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

770Forwards889
Best: 1039HUL +120Best: 1135
815Backs829
Best: 958HUL +14Best: 959
1199Halves705
Best: 1199HKR +494Best: 705
1167Hooker714
HKR +452

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
HUL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
25.6pts
Avg Score
16.0pts
23.8pts
Avg Conceded
20.2pts
1.8pts
Avg Margin
-4.2pts
1230.4m
Run Metres
1158.4m
5.2
Clean Breaks
3.4
318.4
Tackles
349.8
11.4
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

79%

Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +3.0

2/4 match predictions correct