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Super League | Round 7

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THE ACCU STADIUM • SATURDAY 4 APR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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HUD

Huddersfield Giants

3414
YRK

York Knights

✅ Model correct — backed Huddersfield Giants at 63%

AI Win Probability

63%Huddersfield GiantsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

63%

York Knights

37%

AI Match Overview

Huddersfield Giants hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though York Knights are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Huddersfield Giants ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. York Knights carry a 97-point ELO rating advantage (1443 vs 1347). The margin model predicts Huddersfield Giants by 6.7 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Huddersfield Giants to Win @1.58

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Huddersfield Giants +6.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Huddersfield Giants 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R2L
R3L
R4L
R5L
R6W

older → newer

15.6
York Knights
R2L
R3W
R4L
R5L
R6L
19.4

Avg Conceded

25.2

Huddersfield Giants

29.8

York Knights

Avg Margin

-9.6

Huddersfield Giants

-10.4

York Knights

Run Metres

1214

Huddersfield Giants

1224

York Knights

Clean Breaks

3.6

Huddersfield Giants

3.8

York Knights

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

York Knights hold the ELO advantage (1443 vs 1347), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.58).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1347Overall1443
YRK
ELO difference: -97 in favour of York Knights

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

897Forwards844
Best: 1045HUD +52Best: 1066
1341Backs704
Best: 1475HUD +637Best: 773
949Halves689
Best: 949HUD +259Best: 689
630Hooker681
YRK +51

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
YRK
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
15.6pts
Avg Score
19.4pts
25.2pts
Avg Conceded
29.8pts
-9.6pts
Avg Margin
-10.4pts
1214.2m
Run Metres
1224.4m
3.6
Clean Breaks
3.8
314.8
Tackles
313.4
9.4
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Knights
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Knights
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

63%

Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +6.7

3/4 match predictions correct