# Catalans Dragons v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 33 – 26 Toulouse Olympique

_Catalans Dragons torch Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 16 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 64% / Toulouse Olympique 36% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 05 Apr, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Toby Sexton (12' 1st), Leo Darrelatour (16'), Nick Cotric (22'), Leo Darrelatour (48'), Solomona Faataape (51'), Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e (70') · Toulouse Olympique: Mathieu Jussaume (27'), Olly Ashall-Bott (31'), Mathieu Jussaume (38'), Mathieu Jussaume (64'), Luke Polselli (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 64% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 33–26 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 7 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-three points, twenty-six points, and almost identical yardage. Catalans Dragons ran for 1,140 metres, Toulouse Olympique for 1,143. Same territory, same footy, completely different way of using it, and that gap in method is where this game was actually decided.

Toulouse looked after the ball. Eight errors to Catalans' eleven, and they still found 42 tackle busts and 11 offloads to Catalans' 40 and 10. That's a side playing with ambition, backing the pass, backing the shoulder in the tackle. Catalans played a more direct hand, seven line breaks to six, and leaked penalties doing it, eight of them to Toulouse's five. Disciplined ball movement against a side happy to gamble field position for line breaks. Both approaches nearly balanced each other out on the sheet. Only one of them balanced out on the scoreboard.

Catalans made the early running count. Toby Sexton opened the account in the 12th minute, Leo Darrelatour followed four minutes later, and Nick Cotric had them out to 16-0 by the 22nd. That's about as clean a start as you'll see, and it should have been the ball game. Toulouse didn't read the script. Mathieu Jussaume, Olly Ashall-Bott and then Jussaume again dragged it back level at 16-16 before the break, three tries in eleven minutes to erase a sixteen-point margin. Locked up at half-time, all that early Catalans work undone.

The second half belonged to the home side again. Darrelatour's second try came in the 48th, Sexton converted, then Solomona Faataape crossed barely a minute later, and Catalans were out to 26-16. Jussaume completed his hat-trick at the 64th to get Toulouse within six, but Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e restored the buffer at 70, and Sexton's conversion made it 32-20. Luke Polselli's try in the 79th, converted by Cesar Rouge, was too little, too late, for a final margin of seven.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 1,140 | Run metres | **1,143** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| 40 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| 10 | Offloads | **11** |
| 11 | Errors | **8** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 5 |
| 4/6 | Goals | 3/5 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 11 | Errors | 8 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Catalans Dragons by 5.8 vs the actual margin of 7 points. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 8 · Toulouse Olympique 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 64.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 6 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 64%, but Toulouse Olympique stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 27 ELO points clear, 1451 to 1424. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Toulouse Olympique.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.4pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.0pts |
| 1191.2m | Run Metres | 1217.8m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 344.2 | Tackles | 319.2 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L | 16.4 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R2 W · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Toulouse Olympique | 16 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique 52% ✗ |
| 2026 | R17 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 60 | Toulouse Olympique | Catalans Dragons 64% ✗ |
| 2022 | R25 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2022 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 10 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (0.83 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Faataape, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 5th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.83/g (def 8th) | 1/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th) | 0.83/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 103m/g | 135m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 90.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 13 | 15 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 491m/g | 543m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 20.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 80.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 1 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 210m/g | 312m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.05) +240% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.47) +113% · Wingers 1.83/g (lg 0.95) +93%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.05) +40%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 67% | — | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 8% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 3 | Phoenix Togagae | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 33% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 23% | — | 🏉 16' 48' |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 17% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 8 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/39g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexis Lis | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/52g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/28g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Allen | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (2·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Luke Polselli | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 5 in 6g | 5/7g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | — | — |
| 6 | Cesar Rouge | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 27' 38' 64' |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Cator | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | James Roumanos | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/13g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1451 · Toulouse Olympique 1424 · ELO difference: 27 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)