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Super League | Round 7

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STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 4 APR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

3326
TO

Toulouse Olympique

✅ Model correct — backed Catalans Dragons at 64%

AI Win Probability

64%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

64%

Toulouse Olympique

36%

AI Match Overview

Catalans Dragons hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Toulouse Olympique are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Catalans Dragons carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1451 vs 1424). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 5.8 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Catalans Dragons to Win @1.56

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons +5.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R2L
R3L
R4W
R5W
R6L

older → newer

16.4
Toulouse Olympique
R2W
R3L
R4L
R5L
R6L
16.4

Avg Conceded

24.8

Catalans Dragons

23.4

Toulouse Olympique

Avg Margin

-8.4

Catalans Dragons

-7.0

Toulouse Olympique

Run Metres

1183

Catalans Dragons

1210

Toulouse Olympique

Clean Breaks

3.2

Catalans Dragons

5.4

Toulouse Olympique

H2H History (Last 2)Catalans Dragons lead 2-0
Sep 2022CAT 24 - 14 TO
Apr 2022CAT 18 - 10 TO
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1451Overall1424
TO
ELO difference: +27 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

905Forwards937
Best: 1159TO +32Best: 1184
983Backs859
Best: 1238CAT +124Best: 1031
816Halves758
Best: 816CAT +58Best: 758
1185Hooker1137
CAT +48

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
TO
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
16.4pts
Avg Score
16.4pts
24.8pts
Avg Conceded
23.4pts
-8.4pts
Avg Margin
-7.0pts
1183.4m
Run Metres
1210.2m
3.2
Clean Breaks
5.4
344.2
Tackles
319.2
9.6
Errors
11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Olympique
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

64%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: +5.8

4/4 match predictions correct