# Castleford Tigers v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 0 – 34 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity outlast Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 37% / Wakefield Trinity 63% · The OneBore Stadium · Mon, 06 Apr, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: none · Wakefield Trinity: Jake Trueman (5' 1st), Corey Hall (19'), Tyson Smoothy (34'), Oliver Pratt (55'), Cameron Scott (68'), Oliver Pratt (71'), Jake Trueman (75' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 63% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 0–34 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 7 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers did the disciplined things right. They conceded just 4 penalties to Wakefield Trinity's 7, and they were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up 13 times to Wakefield's 16. On paper, that's the kind of control that keeps a side in a game.

It didn't. Castleford managed just 2 line breaks all night against Wakefield's 10, and were out-muscled in contact too, busting only 19 tackles to Wakefield's 50. Tidy possession with nowhere to take it is just possession. Wakefield turned their chances into points, Castleford turned theirs into nothing, and the scoreline at The OneBore Stadium finished 34-0.

Wakefield were away early. Jake Trueman scored inside five minutes, Max Jowitt's conversion making it 0-6 by the 6th. Corey Hall stretched the lead to 0-10 in the 19th, and Tyson Smoothy crossed just before the break, Jowitt's boot again finding the target to make it 0-16 at half-time. Castleford went to the sheds without a point to their name.

The second half didn't offer any way back. Jowitt slotted a penalty goal in the 52nd to push it to 0-18, then Oliver Pratt scored twice either side of a Cameron Scott try, and Trueman added his second in the 75th minute to close it out at 0-34. Six different scoring moments across the match, five different names on the scoresheet, and Castleford involved in precisely none of them.

The run-metre gap explains a lot of it. Wakefield finished with 1,636 metres to Castleford's 1,012, more than 600 metres of extra territory that let them keep camping close to the Tigers' line. That matches what the pre-match numbers suggested. Wakefield's forward pack rated at 936 against Castleford's 805, and the hooker gap was enormous: 1252 to 731. That kind of advantage around the ruck tends to show up in quick play-the-balls and repeat sets, and on this night it did exactly that.

Castleford's one edge on paper was out wide. Their backs rated 1075 to Wakefield's 992, and their halves 972 to 754. None of it showed up in the result. Wakefield's line-break and tackle-bust numbers suggest their spine did enough to shut down whatever the Tigers had planned in attack, and with Trueman himself among the try scorers, the supposed halves mismatch never left a mark on the stat sheet.

The form lines pointed this way too. Wakefield arrived on four wins from five with an average winning margin of plus 2.2, Castleford on two from five with an average losing margin of minus 11.6. Alphr's model backed Wakefield at 63 percent and got the winner right.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1,012 | Run metres | **1,636** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **50** |
| 10 | Offloads | **14** |
| **13** | Errors | 16 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 7 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 3/8 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 13 | Errors | 16 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.0 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 34 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 51. Wakefield Trinity led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 4 · Wakefield Trinity 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 2 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wakefield Trinity are the call at 63%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 196 ELO points clear, 1548 to 1352. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 51. Lean Wakefield Trinity, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 30.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.2pts |
| 1093.4m | Run Metres | 1253.8m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 308.0 | Tackles | 366.4 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R2 L · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W | 19.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R2 W · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 W | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 52 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 67% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 48 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 51% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 26 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Wakefield Trinity | 13 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 3rd there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.33/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 9th) | 0.67/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 79m/g | 126m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 92.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 16 | 17 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 382m/g | 478m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.5/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 8 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 301m/g | 315m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.3% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.25) +52% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.47) +51% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.05) +200% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.25) +68% · 2nd Rows 0.4/g (lg 0.26) +54%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Cini | FB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Jake Thewlis | WG | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 9/13g | 3/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | George Lawler | PR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 3/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Forber | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Westerman | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Brock Greacen | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | George Hirst | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (1·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 55' 71' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 12/16g | 1/1g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 5' 75' |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Seth Nikotemo | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Tray Lolesio | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1352 · Wakefield Trinity 1548 · ELO difference: 196 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)