Castleford Tigers
Wakefield Trinity
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
37%
Wakefield Trinity
63%
AI Match Overview
Wakefield Trinity hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 37%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Wakefield Trinity carry a 196-point ELO rating advantage (1548 vs 1352). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 2.0 points with a combined total of 51.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Wakefield Trinity -2 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R2L R3W R4L R5L R6W older → newer | 19.2 |
Wakefield Trinity | R2W R3L R4W R5W R6W | 18.4 |
Avg Conceded
30.8
Castleford Tigers
16.2
Wakefield Trinity
Avg Margin
-11.6
Castleford Tigers
2.2
Wakefield Trinity
Run Metres
1086
Castleford Tigers
1232
Wakefield Trinity
Clean Breaks
5.2
Castleford Tigers
3.6
Wakefield Trinity
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 51 · Line: -2.0