# Bradford Bulls v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 12 – 24 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos surge back to trample Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 8 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 43% / Leeds Rhinos 57% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Sat, 04 Apr, 06:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Waqa Blake (11' 1st), Connor Wynne (38'), Caleb Aekins (73') · Leeds Rhinos: James McDonnell (24'), Jack Bird (45'), Ash Handley (51'), Cooper Jenkins (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 57% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Bradford Bulls 12–24 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 7 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes into the second half, Bradford Bulls still had the lead. By the 73rd, they were chasing a lost cause with a consolation try to their name. That's the shape of this one: an 8-6 half-time score that made it look tight, and a second-half stretch where Leeds Rhinos scored four tries without reply before Bradford got theirs back.

Final score: Leeds Rhinos 24, Bradford Bulls 12, at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Waqa Blake got the Bulls up and running in the 11th minute, and when Connor Wynne crossed just before the break, Bradford led 8-6 and had every reason to fancy their night. Then James McDonnell, Jack Bird, Ash Handley and Cooper Jenkins did the damage for Leeds between the 45th and 69th minutes, with Jake Connor's boot cleaning up the extras and adding a penalty goal for good measure. Caleb Aekins got Bradford's third try in the 73rd, but by then it was a formality.

The run metre count tells you plenty: Leeds carried for 1,514 to Bradford's 1,027, a gap of nearly 500 metres that shows up directly in the tackle busts, 42 for Leeds against 23 for the Bulls. When a side is getting go-forward like that, field position stops being a contest. Bradford actually offloaded more, 11 to 6, and kept the ball slightly cleaner in isolated passages, but line breaks were dead even at three apiece. It wasn't a case of Bradford playing badly. It was a case of Leeds simply carrying it further, more often, and turning that into second-half points.

The backline gap in the pre-match ratings, 1,123 for Leeds against 804 for Bradford, is about as stark as these numbers get, and it played out almost exactly as advertised once the ball started moving through their hands after the break. Leeds' halves rating, 883 to 776, backs that up too. Bradford's one clear edge was at hooker, 713 to 600, and for a half that showed, with the home side matching Leeds try for try and holding an 8-6 lead. It just wasn't enough once the bigger buetes started to click into gear after the interval.

Form lines pointed this way before kick-off. Leeds arrived averaging 33.6 points a game across their last five with an average winning margin of 19.6, Bradford's five-game form read WWLWL against Leeds' WWWLW. Discipline was the one area Bradford had over them on the night, conceding 5 penalties to Leeds' 6, but it barely mattered against a side finding that much more territory.

Alphr's model had Leeds as 57% favourites with a projected margin of 2.7 and a combined total of 38. The final gap was 12, well beyond that projected margin, but the total landed at 36, within two points of the call. Both picks held up, even if the competitiveness of that first half made it look, for forty minutes, like the underdog might have other ideas.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,027 | Run metres | **1,514** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| 7 | Errors | **6** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 0/4 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 7 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 36, within 2 points. Leeds Rhinos trailed 8–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–24. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 5 · Leeds Rhinos 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 3 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 57%, but Bradford Bulls stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 167 ELO points clear, 1648 to 1481. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Bradford Bulls.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 38. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 33.6pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Margin | 19.6pts |
| 1206.0m | Run Metres | 1408.0m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 6.8 |
| 335.8 | Tackles | 289.8 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 W · R6 L | 24.4 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W | 33.6 |

### H2H History (Last 2) — Leeds Rhinos lead 2-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Leeds Rhinos | 42 – 12 | Bradford Bulls | Leeds Rhinos 68% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Leeds Rhinos | 50 – 16 | Bradford Bulls | Leeds Rhinos 72% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Blake, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 6th) | 0.5/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 6th) | 2/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.83/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 7 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 190m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 9 | 17 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 559m/g | 322m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.3% | 84.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 6 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 310m/g | 381m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 94.1% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.17) -6% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.5/g (lg 0.05) +900% · 2nd Rows 0.5/g (lg 0.26) +92% · Centres 0.83/g (lg 0.47) +77%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Christopher Atkin | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Leon Ruan | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 7% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/13g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Mitch Souter | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ormondroyd | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hallas | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Hallas | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Phoenix Steinwede | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 12 in 5g | 12/5g (2·4·3·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 80% | — | — |
| 3 | Jack Bird | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 6 in 5g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Holroyd | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Levi | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Mikolaj Oledzki | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Keenan Palasia | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1481 · Leeds Rhinos 1648 · ELO difference: 167 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)