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Super League | Round 7

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BARTERCARD ODSAL STADIUM • FRIDAY 3 APR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
BRD

Bradford Bulls

1224
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 57%

AI Win Probability

57%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Bradford Bulls

43%

Leeds Rhinos

57%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Bradford Bulls are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Leeds Rhinos carry a 167-point ELO rating advantage (1648 vs 1481). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Bradford Bulls. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 2.7 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.75

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -2.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bradford Bulls
R2W
R3W
R4L
R5W
R6L

older → newer

24.4
Leeds Rhinos
R2W
R3W
R4W
R5L
R6W
33.6

Avg Conceded

19.2

Bradford Bulls

14.0

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

5.2

Bradford Bulls

19.6

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1199

Bradford Bulls

1401

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

4.6

Bradford Bulls

6.8

Leeds Rhinos

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRD
1481Overall1648
LEE
ELO difference: -167 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

861Forwards829
Best: 1183BRD +32Best: 1098
804Backs1123
Best: 941LEE +319Best: 1325
776Halves883
Best: 776LEE +107Best: 883
713Hooker600
BRD +113

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRD
Stat
LEE
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
24.4pts
Avg Score
33.6pts
19.2pts
Avg Conceded
14.0pts
5.2pts
Avg Margin
19.6pts
1199.4m
Run Metres
1400.8m
4.6
Clean Breaks
6.8
335.8
Tackles
290.2
10.4
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulls
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Bulls
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

57%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: -2.7

4/4 match predictions correct