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Super League | Round 6

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MKM STADIUM • SUNDAY 29 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUL

Hull

2420
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Hull at 54%

AI Win Probability

54%HullFavourite

Hull

54%

Catalans Dragons

46%

AI Match Overview

Hull hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Catalans Dragons are far from out of this at 46%. Catalans Dragons are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Hull counter with ELO Difference and H2H History which tips the scales. Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.87

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons -0.3 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4L
R5W

older → newer

16.6
Catalans Dragons
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4W
R5W
17.6

Avg Conceded

20.2

Hull

22.0

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-3.6

Hull

-4.4

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1129

Hull

1219

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

3.6

Hull

3.4

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 3-2
Sep 2025HUL 22 - 26 CAT
Jun 2025HUL 34 - 0 CAT
Mar 2025HUL 24 - 4 CAT
Sep 2024HUL 4 - 24 CAT
Jul 2024HUL 16 - 24 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1478Overall1474
CAT
ELO difference: +4 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

845Forwards962
Best: 1180CAT +117Best: 1334
749Backs816
Best: 848CAT +67Best: 942
891Halves1181
Best: 891CAT +289Best: 1181
1006Hooker815
HUL +191

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
16.6pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
20.2pts
Avg Conceded
22.0pts
-3.6pts
Avg Margin
-4.4pts
1128.8m
Run Metres
1219.4m
3.6
Clean Breaks
3.4
350.4
Tackles
334.4
9.2
Errors
8.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Hull

Model Confidence

54%

Hull predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: -0.3

1/4 match predictions correct