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Super League | Round 5

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MKM STADIUM • SUNDAY 22 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUL

Hull

2416
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

❌ Upset — model favoured Leeds Rhinos at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Hull

32%

Leeds Rhinos

68%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Leeds Rhinos carry a 238-point ELO rating advantage (1675 vs 1436). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 7.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.47

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -7.7 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4L

older → newer

16.2
Leeds Rhinos
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4W
30.8

Avg Conceded

22.2

Hull

13.2

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-6.0

Hull

17.6

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1139

Hull

1419

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

3.6

Hull

6.4

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
Aug 2025HUL 0 - 34 LEE
May 2025HUL 16 - 18 LEE
Feb 2024HUL 12 - 18 LEE
Sep 2024HUL 6 - 68 LEE
Jun 2024HUL 18 - 10 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1436Overall1675
LEE
ELO difference: -238 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

850Forwards941
Best: 1074LEE +91Best: 1196
990Backs940
Best: 1250HUL +49Best: 1151
647Halves1159
Best: 647LEE +512Best: 1159
716Hooker637
HUL +79

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
LEE
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
16.2pts
Avg Score
30.8pts
22.2pts
Avg Conceded
13.2pts
-6.0pts
Avg Margin
17.6pts
1138.8m
Run Metres
1419.4m
3.6
Clean Breaks
6.4
348.4
Tackles
286.2
9.8
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

68%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -7.7

0/4 match predictions correct