Skip to main content

Super League | Round 4

alphr.com.au

Thu 5 Mar11:00am
WAKWAK
HULHUL
Fri 6 Mar11:00am
YRKYRK
WARWAR
Fri 6 Mar11:00am
LEILEI
CATCAT
Sat 7 Mar11:00am
TOUTOU
WIGWIG
Sat 7 Mar11:00am
STHSTH
BRDBRD
Sun 8 Mar11:00am
LEELEE
CASCAS
Sun 8 Mar11:00am
HUDHUD
HKRHKR
YRK
York Knights
VS
WAR
Warrington Wolves
LNER COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 6 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT

Win Probability

Full Time
30
38

Scoring Breakdown

KnightsWolves
5Tries7
5/5Conversions5/7
1Penalties Conceded3
8Errors5
5Line Breaks8
28Tackle Busts41
8Offloads8
1161Metres1401

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
🤔Questionable

Knights had a +2 penalty advantage. Error differential (8-5) also notable. Minor disparity worth monitoring but unlikely to have been decisive.

PENS1 – 3
ERR8 – 5

AI Game Review

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 65% prediction for York Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 68 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 1/4 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Warrington Wolves firmly in control (99%)
YOR30
1%80'99%
38WAR
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Warrington Wolves momentumMomentum -14York Knights momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

65%York KnightsFavourite

York Knights

65%

Warrington Wolves

35%

✨

AI Match Overview

York Knights are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees York Knights ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. York Knights carry a 47-point ELO rating advantage (1508 vs 1461). The margin model predicts York Knights by 4.1 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

York Knights to Win @1.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Line / Spread

York Knights +4.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

York Knights 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
York Knights
R1W
R2L
R3W

older → newer

16.7
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R3W
17.0

Avg Conceded

26.7

York Knights

25.2

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-10.0

York Knights

-8.2

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1110

York Knights

891

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

3.0

York Knights

2.8

Warrington Wolves

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

YRK
1508Overall1461
WAR
ELO difference: +47 in favour of York Knights

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

731Forwards762
Best: 949WAR +31Best: 958
969Backs962
Best: 1216EvenBest: 1119
662Halves986
Best: 662WAR +324Best: 986
600Hooker1210
WAR +610

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

YRK
Stat
WAR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
16.7pts
Avg Score
17.0pts
26.7pts
Avg Conceded
25.2pts
-10.0pts
Avg Margin
-8.2pts
1109.7m
Run Metres
891.2m
3.0
Clean Breaks
2.8
321.3
Tackles
262.8
9.7
Errors
6.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Knights
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Knights
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

65%

York Knights predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +4.1

1/4 match predictions correct