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Super League | Round 4

alphr.com.au

LNER COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 6 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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YRK

York Knights

3038
WAR

Warrington Wolves

❌ Upset — model favoured York Knights at 65%

AI Win Probability

65%York KnightsFavourite

York Knights

65%

Warrington Wolves

35%

AI Match Overview

York Knights are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees York Knights ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. York Knights carry a 47-point ELO rating advantage (1508 vs 1461). The margin model predicts York Knights by 4.1 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

York Knights to Win @1.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

York Knights +4.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

York Knights 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
York Knights
R1W
R2L
R3W

older → newer

16.7
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R3W
17.0

Avg Conceded

26.7

York Knights

25.2

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-10.0

York Knights

-8.2

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1110

York Knights

891

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

3.0

York Knights

2.8

Warrington Wolves

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

YRK
1508Overall1461
WAR
ELO difference: +47 in favour of York Knights

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

731Forwards762
Best: 949WAR +31Best: 958
969Backs962
Best: 1216EvenBest: 1119
662Halves986
Best: 662WAR +324Best: 986
600Hooker1210
WAR +610

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

YRK
Stat
WAR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
16.7pts
Avg Score
17.0pts
26.7pts
Avg Conceded
25.2pts
-10.0pts
Avg Margin
-8.2pts
1109.7m
Run Metres
891.2m
3.0
Clean Breaks
2.8
321.3
Tackles
262.8
9.7
Errors
6.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Knights
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Knights
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

65%

York Knights predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +4.1

1/4 match predictions correct