# York Knights v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 30 – 38 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves hunt down York Knights._

Half time: 18 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 65% / Warrington Wolves 35% · LNER Community Stadium · Sat, 07 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Ben Jones-Bishop (19'), Denive Balmforth (22'), Toa Mata'afa (29'), Paul Vaughan (59'), Liam Harris (65') · Warrington Wolves: Sam Stone (4' 1st), Josh Thewlis (9'), Cai Taylor-Wray (13'), Sam Stone (32' 1st), George Williams (47'), Ben Currie (55'), Josh Thewlis (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 65% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

York Knights 30–38 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 4 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves led by 16 before York Knights had scored a point, then had to survive a grandstand finish just to get over the line 38-30. That's the shape of this one: an early avalanche, a brave comeback, and a scoreboard that never quite settled until the final minutes.

The start was one-way traffic. Sam Stone opened it in the 4th minute, Josh Thewlis and Cai Taylor-Wray followed inside the next nine, and by the 15th minute Warrington were out 16-0. York Knights could have folded there. Instead they scored four tries in 15 minutes, through Ben Jones-Bishop, Denive Balmforth, Toa Mata'afa and eventually led 18-16 at the 30th minute mark. Warrington answered straight back through a second Stone try before the break to make it 22-18 at half-time, and that's the number that mattered most: York had done the hard work of clawing back into an unwinnable-looking game, only to still be chasing at the break.

The second half was where it got away from them. George Williams and Ben Currie crossed either side of the hour to push the margin out to 18-30, and even though Paul Vaughan and Liam Harris got York back within two at 30-32 with five minutes left, Josh Thewlis's second try in the 69th minute settled it. Warrington had an answer for everything York threw at them, and that's really the story of the whole afternoon.

The stat sheet backs it up. Warrington ran for 1,394 metres to York's 1,154, broke the line eight times to five, and busted 41 tackles to 28. York were actually the tidier side territorially in the errors column, giving the ball away only 8 times to Warrington's 5 fewer, sorry, the other way round: York coughed it up 8 times, Warrington just 5. York did win the discipline battle, conceding a single penalty to Warrington's three, but discipline without go-forward only gets you so far.

The pre-match numbers explain some of it. Warrington's halves and hooker were rated miles ahead going in, 986 to 662 and 1,210 to 600, and that kind of gap in the spine tends to show up exactly where it did: in Warrington's ability to keep finding tries even after York had clawed level. The forward and back ratings were close, 731 to 762 and 969 to 962, which is why York could compete in the arm-wrestle without ever quite controlling it.

Alphr's model had York Knights favourites at 65% and tipped them by 4.1 points, with the total pegged at 42. None of that landed. Warrington won by 8, and the sides put on 68 points between them, 26 more than predicted. A tough one for the model to wear, and a reminder that the spine numbers were trying to tell a different story all along.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,154 | Run metres | **1,394** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **41** |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 8 | Errors | **5** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 7 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 5/7 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 8 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 65% prediction for York Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 68 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 42. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties York Knights 1 · Warrington Wolves 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 64.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 4 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on York Knights here: 65% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: York Knights sit 47 ELO points clear, 1508 to 1461.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has York Knights by 4.1, with the two sides combining for about 42. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back York Knights to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.7pts | Avg Score | 17.0pts |
| 26.7pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| -10.0pts | Avg Margin | -8.2pts |
| 1115.0m | Run Metres | 893.8m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 321.3 | Tackles | 262.8 |
| 9.7 | Errors | 6.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R1 W · R2 L · R3 W | 16.7 |
| Warrington Wolves | R1 W · R3 W | 17.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Warrington Wolves lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 10 | York Knights | Warrington Wolves 69% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Wood, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 12th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 2/g (def 9th) | 1.5/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 1 | 0 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 96m/g | 178m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 90.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 497m/g | 508m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.7/g | 12.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 85.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 273m/g | 256m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 94.9% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Centres 0.43/g (lg 0.46) -7%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Props 0.33/g (lg 0.14) +136% · Wingers 2/g (lg 0.93) +115% · Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.17) +94%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Danny Richardson | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Liam Harris | HB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/21g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 11 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jesse Dee | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Griffin | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | 1 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 9' 69' |
| 3 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Joshua Smith | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Harrison | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 4' 32' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 15 | Taofofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1508 · Warrington Wolves 1461 · ELO difference: 47 in favour of York Knights

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | York Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | York Knights |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — York Knights predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)