# Wakefield Trinity v Hull FC — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 14 – 10 Hull FC

_Wakefield Trinity see off a gallant Hull FC._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 72% / Hull FC 28% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Fri, 06 Mar, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Will Tate (13'), Oliver Pratt (39'), Will Tate (57') · Hull FC: Lewis Martin (8' 1st), Lewis Martin (24' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 72% | Won |
| Hull FC | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 14–10 Hull FC in Super League Round 4 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity edged Hull FC 14–10 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Locked at 10–10 at half-time, Wakefield Trinity found the decisive points after the break.

Lewis Martin opened the scoring; Wakefield Trinity crossed through Will Tate (2) and Oliver Pratt; Hull FC scored through Lewis Martin (2).

Wakefield Trinity were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 5 times to 9. Wakefield Trinity were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 3. In a 4-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,441** | Run metres | 1,237 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| **8** | Offloads | 3 |
| **5** | Errors | 9 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 1/4 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 5 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wakefield Trinity by 5.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 24 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 49. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (30/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 8 · Hull FC 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 5 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 72% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 20 ELO points clear, 1478 to 1458.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Wakefield Trinity, which says ELO Difference and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 49. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Wakefield Trinity to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 20.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.8pts |
| 1.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1198.8m | Run Metres | 1124.4m |
| 4.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 342.2 | Tackles | 327.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 L · R2 W · R3 L | 22.4 |
| Hull FC | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Hull FC | 10 – 36 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 81% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | Hull FC | 16 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 16 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2023 | R21 | Hull FC | 42 – 4 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R12 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Walmsley, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 4th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Litten, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 0.67/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 0 | 0 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 109m/g | 58m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 1.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 461m/g | 525m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 79.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 0 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 287m/g | 290m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.3/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 92.6% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.19) +47% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.24) +38%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.24) +63% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.46) +54% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Will Tate | WG | 1 in 1g | 6/7g (2·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 43% | — | 🏉 13' 57' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Jayden Myers | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/9g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 13% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 23% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Cameron Scott | INT | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/10g | 36% | — | — |
| 15 | Jay Pitts | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/13g | 15% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davy Litten | FB | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/17g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 1 in 3g | 10/10g (4·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 56% | — | 🏉 8' 24' |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Yusuf Aydin | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Brad Fash | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Lisone | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Ligi Sao | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bell | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Cade Cust | INT | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1478 · Hull FC 1458 · ELO difference: 20 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull FC |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)