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Super League | Round 4

alphr.com.au

Thu 5 Mar11:00am
WAKWAK
HULHUL
Fri 6 Mar11:00am
YRKYRK
WARWAR
Fri 6 Mar11:00am
LEILEI
CATCAT
Sat 7 Mar11:00am
TOTO
WIGWIG
Sat 7 Mar11:00am
STHSTH
BRDBRD
Sun 8 Mar11:00am
LEELEE
CASCAS
Sun 8 Mar11:00am
HUDHUD
HKRHKR
WAK
Wakefield Trinity
VS
HUL
Hull FC
THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • THURSDAY 5 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT

Win Probability

Full Time
14
10

Scoring Breakdown

TrinityFC
3Tries2
1/3Conversions1/2
0/1Penalty Goals0/0
8Penalties Conceded8
5Errors9
4Line Breaks3
28Tackle Busts33
8Offloads3
1449Metres1244

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

FC had penalties evenly distributed (8-8). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.

PENS8 – 8
ERR5 – 9

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wakefield Trinity by 5.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 24 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 49. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Wakefield Trinity firmly in control (99%)
WAK14
99%80'1%
10HUL
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Hull FC momentumMomentum +0Wakefield Trinity momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

72%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

72%

Hull FC

28%

✨

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull FC. Hull FC are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Wakefield Trinity counter with ELO Difference and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Wakefield Trinity carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1478 vs 1458). The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 5.3 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.39

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +5.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R1L
R2W
R3L

older → newer

22.4
Hull FC
R1W
R2L
R3L
21.0

Avg Conceded

20.6

Wakefield Trinity

19.8

Hull FC

Avg Margin

1.8

Wakefield Trinity

1.2

Hull FC

Run Metres

1180

Wakefield Trinity

1120

Hull FC

Clean Breaks

4.8

Wakefield Trinity

4.0

Hull FC

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1478Overall1458
HUL
ELO difference: +20 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

812Forwards997
Best: 1065HUL +185Best: 1421
758Backs843
Best: 857HUL +86Best: 975
789Halves877
Best: 789HUL +87Best: 877
836Hooker885
HUL +49

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
HUL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
22.4pts
Avg Score
21.0pts
20.6pts
Avg Conceded
19.8pts
1.8pts
Avg Margin
1.2pts
1180.2m
Run Metres
1119.8m
4.8
Clean Breaks
4.0
341.6
Tackles
327.4
10.4
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
FC
3
Backline Quality10.0%
FC
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
5
Halves Control9.0%
FC
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
FC

Model Confidence

72%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +5.3

3/4 match predictions correct