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Super League | Round 4

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • THURSDAY 5 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

1410
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 72%

AI Win Probability

72%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

72%

Hull

28%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. Hull are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Wakefield Trinity counter with ELO Difference and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Wakefield Trinity carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1478 vs 1458). The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 5.3 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.39

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +5.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R1L
R2W
R3L

older → newer

22.4
Hull
R1W
R2L
R3L
21.0

Avg Conceded

20.6

Wakefield Trinity

19.8

Hull

Avg Margin

1.8

Wakefield Trinity

1.2

Hull

Run Metres

1180

Wakefield Trinity

1120

Hull

Clean Breaks

4.8

Wakefield Trinity

4.0

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Hull lead 4-1
Jul 2025WAK 10 - 16 HUL
Apr 2025WAK 12 - 16 HUL
Aug 2023WAK 4 - 42 HUL
May 2023WAK 6 - 26 HUL
Aug 2022WAK 26 - 18 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1478Overall1458
HUL
ELO difference: +20 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

812Forwards997
Best: 1065HUL +185Best: 1421
758Backs843
Best: 857HUL +86Best: 975
789Halves877
Best: 789HUL +87Best: 877
836Hooker885
HUL +49

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
HUL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
22.4pts
Avg Score
21.0pts
20.6pts
Avg Conceded
19.8pts
1.8pts
Avg Margin
1.2pts
1180.2m
Run Metres
1119.8m
4.8
Clean Breaks
4.0
341.6
Tackles
327.4
10.4
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
Hull

Model Confidence

72%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +5.3

3/4 match predictions correct