# Toulouse Olympique v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 16 – 36 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors go to war with Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 6 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 34% / Wigan Warriors 66% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 08 Mar, 04:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Olly Ashall-Bott (38'), Olly Ashall-Bott (56'), Benjamin Laguerre (65') · Wigan Warriors: Zach Eckersley (7' 1st), Adam Keighran (11'), Adam Keighran (15'), Zach Eckersley (22' 1st), Bevan French (52'), Brad O'Neill (59'), Sam Walters (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 66% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 16–36 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 4 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen points before the 22nd minute told you everything about how this one was decided. Wigan Warriors ran in four tries inside the first half hour at Stade Ernest Wallon and never let Toulouse Olympique back into it, closing it out 36-16.

The gap in the halves ratings going in was 682 to 1066, and it showed up on the scoreboard almost immediately. Zach Eckersley crossed in the 7th minute, Adam Keighran followed with a double either side of the quarter mark, and by the 22nd minute Wigan led 0-18 without Toulouse Olympique troubling the scorers. Toulouse finally got on the board through Olly Ashall-Bott right on the stroke of half-time, but 6-18 at the break was already a big hole against a side averaging 27.6 points a game across their last five.

The second half was Wigan pushing the margin rather than Toulouse hauling it back. Bevan French scored in the 52nd minute, Keighran added the extras, and when Brad O'Neill crossed in the 59th it was 12-30. Toulouse had a genuine crack, Ashall-Bott's second try and a Benjamin Laguerre four-pointer either side of the hour got them to within 14, but Sam Walters closed it out in the 71st minute and Keighran's conversion put the gloss on a 36-16 scoreline.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Wigan ran for 1,323 metres to Toulouse's 999, and broke the line 8 times to 6, the sort of gap you'd expect when a backline rated 896 is up against one rated 716. Toulouse actually won the collision stats that matter in a scrap, 49 tackle busts to 38 and 12 offloads to 9, and they were the tidier side with ball in hand, 10 errors against Wigan's 16. None of it mattered much when the concede column read 36.

Individually, Keighran's two tries and two conversions made him the difference with the boot as much as anywhere else, while Eckersley's brace either side of that early blitz set the tone before Toulouse had settled. For the home side, Ashall-Bott's double and Laguerre's try were the only positives on a day where Toulouse's own form line, a 2 from 5 record and an average margin of minus 0.7, caught up with them against a Wigan side that had won four of their last five and were averaging a plus 17.2 margin coming in.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors favourites at 66 percent, with an expected margin of 9.3 and a combined total of 46. The actual gap doubled that to 20, and the total landed at 52, within 6 of the prediction. Call it 1 from 2: the winner and the shape of it were right, the size of the beating was not.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 999 | Run metres | **1,323** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **8** |
| **49** | Tackle busts | 38 |
| **12** | Offloads | 9 |
| **10** | Errors | 16 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 7 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 4/7 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 10 | Errors | 16 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 9.3 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 52, within 6 points. Wigan Warriors led 6–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (20/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 5 · Wigan Warriors 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 65.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 66% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 258 ELO points clear, 1734 to 1476. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Toulouse Olympique.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 46. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 15.3pts | Avg Conceded | 10.4pts |
| 0.7pts | Avg Margin | 17.2pts |
| 1297.7m | Run Metres | 1319.0m |
| 6.3 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 316.0 | Tackles | 299.2 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R1 W · R2 W · R3 L | 16.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R1 W · R2 W · R3 W | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wigan Warriors | 48 – 18 | Toulouse Olympique | Wigan Warriors 78% ✓ |
| 2022 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 52 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R16 | Wigan Warriors | 40 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |
| 2022 | R4 | Toulouse Olympique | 28 – 29 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 1st there (0.33 conceded/game). Key man: Rennie, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Wardle, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) | 3.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 0 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 119m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 81% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 7 | 11 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 3/g |
| Run Metres | 612m/g | 567m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.7/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 82.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 0 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 330m/g | 486m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16% · Halfbacks 0.1/g (lg 0.17) -41%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 1/g (lg 0.46) +117% · Wingers 1.33/g (lg 0.93) +43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 38' 56' |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Luke Polselli | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 25% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 6 | Thomas Lacans | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Shorrocks | HB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ajahni Wallace | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | AJ Wallace | 2R | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Cator | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Bretherton | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | James Roumanos | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bevan French | FB | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·2·0·1·1·1) | 4/2g | 0/0g | 60% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (1·1·0·2·2·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 7' 22' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 11' 15' |
| 4 | Liam Farrell | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (1·3·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 59' |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Walters | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Oliver Partington | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Kerr | INT | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1476 · Wigan Warriors 1734 · ELO difference: 258 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)