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Super League | Round 4

alphr.com.au

STADE ERNEST WALLON • SATURDAY 7 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
TO

Toulouse Olympique

1636
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 66%

AI Win Probability

66%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Toulouse Olympique

34%

Wigan Warriors

66%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Toulouse Olympique. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 258-point ELO rating advantage (1734 vs 1476). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Toulouse Olympique. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 9.3 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.52

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -9.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Toulouse Olympique
R1W
R2W
R3L

older → newer

15.2
Wigan Warriors
R1W
R2W
R3W
27.6

Avg Conceded

24.0

Toulouse Olympique

10.4

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

-8.8

Toulouse Olympique

17.2

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1001

Toulouse Olympique

1314

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

4.2

Toulouse Olympique

5.2

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 3)Wigan Warriors lead 3-0
Aug 2022TO 6 - 52 WIG
Jun 2022TO 6 - 40 WIG
Mar 2022TO 28 - 29 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

TO
1476Overall1734
WIG
ELO difference: -258 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

825Forwards865
Best: 1018WIG +40Best: 1137
716Backs896
Best: 764WIG +180Best: 1093
682Halves1066
Best: 682WIG +384Best: 1066
1243Hooker619
TO +624

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

TO
Stat
WIG
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
27.6pts
24.0pts
Avg Conceded
10.4pts
-8.8pts
Avg Margin
17.2pts
1001.2m
Run Metres
1314.2m
4.2
Clean Breaks
5.2
241.4
Tackles
299.2
9.4
Errors
10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

66%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -9.3

3/4 match predictions correct